Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Sonica · #441 Postby **Sonica** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:20 pm

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... r&site=ATL

superfly · #442 Postby **superfly** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:21 pm

Eyewall still open to the NW.

#443 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?

Then florida is in for it.....again.

WAY too big a leap to that conclusion.

I think there are a number of things that could happen:
What you said
Stall
Drift
Wait for next one

Please try to refrain from (what I perceive to be ) gleeful FL strike conclusions.

This is several days away and I think discretion is the best guide to drawing conclusions.

sma10 · #444 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:36 pm

skufful wrote:
Recurve wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?

Then florida is in for it.....again.

Getting a little ahead of ourselves, aren't we? When you say if this happens...then Florida will get hit, IMO you should use the disclaimer. You're relatively new around here, we should all be careful about making certain-sounding pronouncements, especially in reponse to questions from those who may not know your record/experience/age.

Absurd, that's no forecast, needs no disclaimer. Just like all the pro-mets have constantly said "No EC threat." There's been no disclaimer there.

You're correct, that was not a forecast at all. It was a tabloid-like headline worthy of the National Enquirer. Very few facts presented.

#445 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:40 pm

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND
HELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL

alot of uncertainty in that forecast. Basically I take it to mean if the second trough doesn't take her out I would say the chance of an EC threat goes up. There is no trough after the second trough.

Funny how most people didn't even think she would get this far west a few days ago.

#446 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:41 pm

i did!

#447 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:42 pm

Jeremy you nailed Ernesto, where do you think Helene will end up?

#448 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:45 pm

I think it will recurve west of bermuda, but this can change easily.

Bgator · #449 Postby **Bgator** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:47 pm

00z GFS is rolling off right now, i cant post as i am going to bed, just a heads up! :cheesy:

Stratosphere747 · #450 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:50 pm

Will be another run or two before the NOAA info is fully ingested....

#451 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:59 pm

when is the new GFS coming out? isnt it in a hour or so?

Stratosphere747 · #452 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:02 pm

It's already out and up to 78hr...

whereverwx · #453 Postby **whereverwx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:03 pm

I wonder if the deep red will be completely rapped around the eye once the 0645Z image comes out after the diurnal maximum (which I know starts after 0345Z).

EDIT: Oops, wrong wording. I meant after the eclipse thingy.

#454 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:05 pm

where can i find the new GFS?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #455 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:12 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Even though the NHC is being conservative, 115 mph winds isn't right. I think this is close to being a Cat-4. Why can't they just send another recon?

Helene isn't much stronger than 115 mph. Maybe 120. Although it could be less if there isn't much mixing to the surface.

The chances that the storm is exceeding satellite estimates, at this stage, is rather low.

sma10 · #456 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:19 pm

Through 96 hrs, the GFS looks appreciably further North and East than previous run.

Stratosphere747 · #457 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:22 pm

At 126 it is heading out to sea...

If this run has taken in some of the NOAA info, I would assume that the 5am track will reflect this.

#458 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:24 pm

can i have a link please?

sma10 · #459 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:28 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:At 126 it is heading out to sea...

If this run has taken in some of the NOAA info, I would assume that the 5am track will reflect this.

Yes. The 00Z GFS has changed considerably. Virtually no westward motion in the latter stages.

#460 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:28 pm

senorpepr wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Even though the NHC is being conservative, 115 mph winds isn't right. I think this is close to being a Cat-4. Why can't they just send another recon?

Helene isn't much stronger than 115 mph. Maybe 120. Although it could be less if there isn't much mixing to the surface.

The chances that the storm is exceeding satellite estimates, at this stage, is rather low.

Thanks Mike... I just don't understand why people feel the need to question the intensities that the NHC gives on storms without recon. What is the difference whether a storm at sea is 110KTS or 115KTS, or even 120KTS for that matter. A ship souldn't be in a storm that is at that type of windspead anyway.

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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