INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Aric Dunn]

The low level center is focusing the broad circulation. With the models better initialized the west shift in track should be higher confidence.

Still plenty of shear to pull the rain over Florida yet keep the development down below hurricane strength.

Be interesting to see what recon finds.

recon south of mobile and west of tampa right now... should be getting some obs out of there soon

[charcountfl]

Here in Port Charlotte it started drizzling 'round 10:30 and has been Spring raining ever since! My kids have playing in the rain since then.

[Decomdoug]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

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Same here in Port St. Lucie. Had a light sprinkle 20 minutes ago, hardly wet the ground, and that is it.

[bucman1]

Still most of the weather is to the east and north so the west coast of the pennisula should get a soaking.

[Bellarose]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

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Same here in Port St. Lucie. Had a light sprinkle 20 minutes ago, hardly wet the ground, and that is it.

Ditto here in Pasco County.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1

34kts

[NDG]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1

34kts

Yes, winds are there already to be a depression.

[windstorm99]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

[tracyswfla]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

[JonathanBelles]

ITS RAINING!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

dont think so...


jumping to conclusions. without checking .... all data.. is not the way to do things.. there have plenty of sheared TC before i like to use this example because it fits so well and is so similar.. ALBERTO LAST YEAR

[Windtalker1]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

Lets be nice

[Aric Dunn]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

Lets be nice

.
that was nice

[NDG]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

There's no argument this will not become a strong cyclone, but as far as subtropical depression, or even a tropical depression, is very close if not there already or become one later on tonight, upper level shear does help sometimes to create weak cyclones.

[Bgator]

Been raining here in Miami all day, nice steady rain, nothing to hard, but definetley steady.

[windstorm99]

Just giving my thoughts on the current situation with 92L.

Upper level winds are not favorable in my opinion for any development with 30-40kts of wind shear running threw the gulf with no indication of improveing conditions also on quikscat theres very little evidence of any kind of circulation out there but whether or not this mess becomes a TD the impact will be the same with tropical moisture moving threw the sunshine state.

[NDG]

No just giving me thoughts on the current situation with 92L.

Upper level winds are not favorable in my opinion for any development with 30-40kts of wind shear running threw the gulf with no indication of improveing conditions also on quikscat theres very little evidence of any kind of circulation out there but whether or not this mess becomes a TD the impact will be the same with tropical moisture moving threw the sunshine state.

What more evidence do you want there's a circulation by looking at the sat and with the NE Yucatan peninsula reporting westery winds? Do you have current pics of the quickscat?

[Aric Dunn]

No just giving me thoughts on the current situation with 92L.

Upper level winds are not favorable in my opinion for any development with 30-40kts of wind shear running threw the gulf with no indication of improveing conditions also on quikscat theres very little evidence of any kind of circulation out there but whether or not this mess becomes a TD the impact will be the same with tropical moisture moving threw the sunshine state.

agreed.. on the part that no matter what happens effects will be same..
everything else questionable.. yes the shear is not favorable for any significant development.... i.e hurricane... but weak TS or STS yes... remember ALBERTO>>>> same conditions.. and as for no eveidence of a circulation..... that ridiculous... look at the close up visible.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[wjs3]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

dont think so...


jumping to conclusions. without checking .... all data.. is not the way to do things.. there have plenty of sheared TC before i like to use this example because it fits so well and is so similar.. ALBERTO LAST YEAR

Just a point--the origins of Alberto were different than what we are looking at now. Alberto started because of a tropical wave interacting with an area of disturbed weather and then moved north into an area of shear.

With 92l, the origins are different...the short wave that swung through and associated upper patterns kicked off the divergence that started this whole thing off.

So while I agree that the NHC could choose to classify it as Something (who knows what), I think that its origins as a baroclinic low are different than what Alberto's were and it's worth considering when comparing to Alberto.

My two cents.

WJS3

[seaswing]

Ominous looking dark clouds heading up from the SE..... it has been so long since I've seen those kinds of clouds that I almost forgot what they looked like! My motto so far this year....Bring it ON!!!!