Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[wxman57]

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours.

As I said, you have to nowcast this. Shear is not an issue. Period. Forget about it. Don't even discuss increasing shear. Shear is 5-10kts. Worry about dry air if you are going to give reason for its demise. Everybody please stop worrying about shear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My clients are in the eastern Caribbean, not between 40-45W longitude. Doesn't matter what happens in the next 72 hours to me, what matters is beyond then when it could threaten our clients. It could become a TS within 48 hours, but if it's an open wave when it reaches the islands then it's not a big threat. So shear is a significant issue to those in the eastern Caribbean. And I still think it's north of 10.5N now. Nite all!

[Aric Dunn]

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours.

As I said, you have to nowcast this. Shear is not an issue. Period. Forget about it. Don't even discuss increasing shear. Shear is 5-10kts. Worry about dry air if you are going to give reason for its demise. Everybody please stop worrying about shear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My clients are in the eastern Caribbean, not between 40-45W longitude. Doesn't matter what happens in the next 72 hours to me, what matters is beyond then when it could threaten our clients. It could become a TS within 48 hours, but if it's an open wave when it reaches the islands then it's not a big threat. So shear is a significant issue to those in the eastern Caribbean. And I still think it's north of 10.5N now. Nite all!

thats ok .. because we can compromise .. in between .. since a center covers some area.. so lets say from 10.3 to 10.5n

[Stratosphere747]

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours.

As I said, you have to nowcast this. Shear is not an issue. Period. Forget about it. Don't even discuss increasing shear. Shear is 5-10kts. Worry about dry air if you are going to give reason for its demise. Everybody please stop worrying about shear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you don't want to "worry" about potential shear, then why are you making blanket statments as this -

"The wind shear in the area is flat out shocking. Are we seriously in the first week of July? WOW. We need to be pray for dry air a lot because if the shear stays this way it will be one of the worst seasons imaginable. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF"

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95837&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=400

Honest question...

[Aric Dunn]

next convective burst coming soon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

it maybe a little more significant than the last one its looks to be closer to the center..

[jaxfladude]

Hey you all the fireworks will happen tomorrow depending on weather conditions through-out the nation and if TD#3 forms so what.......so enjoy the 231st Birthday of the good old USA!!!

[Aric Dunn]

well at this point im a not even paying attention to the gfs because its not even initializing it at all !
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

00z

[windstorm99]

This thing maybe fighting a losing battle with all this dry air in its vicinity.

We'll see what tommorows morning visible brings.Adrian

[Aric Dunn]

This thing maybe fighting a losing battle with all this dry air in its vicinity.

We'll see what tommorows moring visible brings.Adrian

just wait for it.. we have a burst coming..

[hurricanefloyd5]

I feel that we have/will have TD#3 NOW OR BY 5 AM

[hurricanefloyd5]

Can't wait to see the next model runs on this system!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

I feel that we have/will have TD#3 NOW OR BY 5 AM

Highly unlikely the NHC will do anything with it overnight, as they cannot find the center either. They'll wait to confirm any LLC location with visible imagery tomorrow morning. If there's been a significant change in organization since late this afternoon, then they'd issue a special statement around 8am CDT and a first track by 10am CDT. Just have to wait for sunrise.

[Aric Dunn]

I feel that we have/will have TD#3 NOW OR BY 5 AM

Highly unlikely the NHC will do anything with it overnight, as they cannot find the center either. They'll wait to confirm any LLC location with visible imagery tomorrow morning. If there's been a significant change in organization since late this afternoon, then they'd issue a special statement around 8am CDT and a first track by 10am CDT. Just have to wait for sunrise.

yeah not tonight unless there was some crazy organization and still they would wait till morning.. no rush ! right

[philnyc]

Here's your mid-level RH forecasts for the afternoons of tomorrow and the 5th (red circle denotes forecast position from COLO State):

The 4th at 18Z:


and for the 5th at 18Z:


Doesn't look so good on the 5th, huh? But these are model runs from 18Z on the 3rd. I'll update them tomorrow - I'm burning out. (Tho I may wait for that convective burst, Aric.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's your mid-level RH forecasts for the afternoons of tomorrow and the 5th (red circle denotes forecast position from COLO State):

The 4th at 18Z:


and for the 5th at 18Z:


Doesn't look so good on the 5th, huh? But these are model runs from 18Z on the 3rd. I'll update them tomorrow - I'm burning out. (Tho I may wait for that convective burst, Aric.

yeah no thats not very good for the system we will have to wait and see i guess. its just going to be short term forecasting from me till something changes

[hurricanefloyd5]

I feel that we have/will have TD#3 NOW OR BY 5 AM

Highly unlikely the NHC will do anything with it overnight, as they cannot find the center either. They'll wait to confirm any LLC location with visible imagery tomorrow morning. If there's been a significant change in organization since late this afternoon, then they'd issue a special statement around 8am CDT and a first track by 10am CDT. Just have to wait for sunrise.

yeah not tonight unless there was some crazy organization and still they would wait till morning.. no rush ! right

I never said they (NHC) would do anything tonight im just stating that even if it is TD#3 now then the first adv. would come out at 5 AM in the AMthats all im saying!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

hurricanefloyd5,you need to calm down.Let's see how this will be by the morning hours to see if it will take the next step or it will open up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is a chance this may become an official
depression...
but there is a lot of dry air that could destroy it...
so there will be a tough fight 96L has to wage
to stay alive...amidst dry conditions..It has shown
strong persistence through today...If the persistence
continues into tomorrow then we could have a
tropical depression by tomorrow night.

This system reaching the Caribbean is my biggest
concern...because if the dry air over the Caribbean
lessens and shear is already very low and likely to
stay low...there could be substantial development or
increase in intensity/convection...

[hurricanefloyd5]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I never said they (NHC) would do anything tonight im just stating that even if it is TD#3 now then the first adv. would come out at 5 AM in the AMthats all im saying!!!!!!!!!![/quote]


Boy do alot of people on this board misquote everyone else on here!!!!!!

[wxman57]

I never said they (NHC) would do anything tonight im just stating that even if it is TD#3 now then the first adv. would come out at 5 AM in the AM thats all im saying!!!!!!!!!!

If the NHC declared it a depression now, then they would issue a track very shortly afterwards, not at 5am EDT. But they're not doing anything overnight. Just be patient, you'll get your share of hurricanes before the season ends. Chantal may have to wait for another 2-4 weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

whens this thread end..