Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

I'll echo miamicanes' sentiments. You can feel free to start a thread about spelling and grammar in the OT section.

Any future off topic posts in this thread will be deleted.

By the way... awsom grammer and speeling u got ther Regit.

Looking at the Latest Visible, you can see a hint of a circulation... However it does appear to have that classic inverted V shape to it now. Perhaps with more convection the circulation can get going again... But it's definitely loosing that westerly component to the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i still see small but still defined LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[skysummit]

I do also Aric. It's there, but it's very small. Looks like it may be trying to pull in some moisture from the ITCZ. As long as it continues to ride that small area of moisture, it'll continue to rotate. The only problem with that is it'll also ride the coastline of S.A., if not run right into it

[T-man]

I was gonna ask, (oops, I meant going!) do you guys think it is still in the ITCZ or what? I mean, it really hasn't gained much latitude in the last few days. I still think it will just make it through the gap between the islands and the continent.

[Aric Dunn]

I was gonna ask, (oops, I meant going!) do you guys think it is still in the ITCZ or what? I mean, it really hasn't gained much latitude in the last few days. I still think it will just make it through the gap between the islands and the continent.

yeah its far enough north..

and not sure if thats the itcz completly or not.. NHC has the ITCZ farther south .. i think it may make thru the islands with the circ still in tacked

[SouthFloridawx]

I'll echo miamicanes' sentiments. You can feel free to start a thread about spelling and grammar in the OT section.

Any future off topic posts in this thread will be deleted.

By the way... awsom grammer and speeling u got ther Regit.

Looking at the Latest Visible, you can see a hint of a circulation... However it does appear to have that classic inverted V shape to it now. Perhaps with more convection the circulation can get going again... But it's definitely loosing that westerly component to the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i still see small but still defined LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[img][/img]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think 96L has some potential to become a tropical depression
why?
high heat content waters
less shear
high to build over the NW caribbean reducing shear

there is a chance dry air could kill it prior to this.
So we will have to wait and see.

[NDG]

I believe that the ITCZ is much farther north than what the NHC has it at, notice all of the SE winds to the wsw of 96L merging w/NE winds, happening very close to the weak low, might be a reason why the southern circulation of the low is so limited.

[Aric Dunn]

I'll echo miamicanes' sentiments. You can feel free to start a thread about spelling and grammar in the OT section.

Any future off topic posts in this thread will be deleted.

By the way... awsom grammer and speeling u got ther Regit.

Looking at the Latest Visible, you can see a hint of a circulation... However it does appear to have that classic inverted V shape to it now. Perhaps with more convection the circulation can get going again... But it's definitely loosing that westerly component to the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i still see small but still defined LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[img][/img][/quote]


im not sure what that is supposed to be.. but thats not what happening

[SouthFloridawx]

Aric your shenanigans have gone too far. It may have been a circulation but it has really opened up this afternoon...

It is possible down the road after this "Open Wave" regenerates some convective activity. Although it was interesting to watch, for the next day or two this is all you will be watching from this wave. Perhaps in a bout 3 days or so we'll see a big flare up from an upper level disturbance schedule to be to the nw of the system.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007070606&field=300mb+Vorticity&hour=096hr




As you can see from this loop... any convection from this wave is going to be minimal at best.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html



Now I'm not saying that it doesn't bear watching, because of course in the month of July we have to monitor all of the waves that come across the Atlantic.

There is no way you can classify this as a closed low pressure though... it is so obvious from satellite that it is now in fact an open wave, as mentioned by the NHC.

It may have had a low level circulation today, but slowly as it has lost convection, it is and will be completely an open wave by tomorrow morning. You can see on this happening on a satellite loop of the system. Unless by some stroke of luck, miracle or finger of god, we'll see it regenerate overnight.

Bye bye for now 96L... We'll see you later in the week known as 97L or even maybe 98L, depending on if there is any other Invests before, it interacts with the Upper Level disturbance and generates into another area of low pressure into the NW Caribbean.

Either way... no offense and no big deal, YET...

Also see here...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

You can clearly see there is no westerly component to the circulation on the southern side....

[NDG]

While it is taking little by little the looks of a classical inverted V shaped tropical wave, the low pressure is still visible, being that it is still close to the ITCZ is making it difficult to have a full circulation on its SW & southern quadrant.

[Aquawind]

We should have an action packed season if little waves lke 96L keep on coming of the African coast. Even if they wait intil the Caribbean to organize. If this thing pops with that dry air to the north it's going to get scary come prime time actually.

[SouthFloridawx]

While it is taking little by little the looks of a classical inverted V shaped tropical wave, the low pressure is still visible, being that it is still close to the ITCZ is making it difficult to have a full circulation on its SW & southern quadrant.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... -5-072.jpg

That's exactly what I'm trying to say in so many words...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[wxman57]

"He really is dead, Jim!"

Just another weak tropical wave along the ITCZ. Chance of development slim to none. It'll be moving inland into South America over the weekend.

[NDG]

Well, I guess the NHC changed their mind about dropping the LOW pressure center out of the tropical wave on their 18z surface analysis, the whole thing is complex, while I agree with wxman57's ITCZ axis I don't agree that he has dropped the Low, while I agree with the NHC LOW center representation I don't agree that they do not show the ITCZ axis,

[NDG]

Are they looking at the right sat floater for 96L, it has about as much convection as it has had all day, if not more, not there is a lot any way.

ABNT20 KNHC 062120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Nimbus]

Some posters have suggested that 96L may be headed for the NW caribbean? With the track thus far running almost due west wouldn't it be more likely to skirt the north coast of South America like Earl's remnants did in 2004?

[TheRingo]

Some posters have suggested that 96L may be headed for the NW caribbean? With the track thus far running almost due west wouldn't it be more likely to skirt the north coast of South America like Earl's remnants did in 2004?

72hr surface forecast shows it going in the caribbean without the low.

[Cyclone1]

Some posters have suggested that 96L may be headed for the NW caribbean? With the track thus far running almost due west wouldn't it be more likely to skirt the north coast of South America like Earl's remnants did in 2004?

Into the Caribbean it goes!

[miamicanes177]

This is the best it has looked in a day. It's certainly way premature to call it dead.

[jrod]

As i posted yesterday, it is dead for now and not likely to ever develop.