INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Stormcenter]

Let the fun begin!!

Fun?

I don't think anything will be fun if this thing were to really wind up and
threaten the U.S. mainland.

[gatorcane]

LOL that's funny, I bet the next run will show it big time...just my opinion...

[Extremeweatherguy]

the center appears to be forming more north than the models have it....not good also....

and a WNW to NW movement is noted over the past couple of hours as it is trying to get organized...

also not good...

I expect model guidance to shift north and take it close or over Jamaica...then once it is in the NW Caribbean that is where the fuzzy areas come in to play....but a SE US threat appears possible with this one.

I highly doubt that this is heading NW or that it will be a SE United States issue. With that building high, I just do not think it will be possible. This is going to go through the caribbean and will likely not be an issue to the FL east coast or anywhere north of there. More likely than not this will either be a Mexico/Central America storm or a GOM storm (assuming it actually even develops). No need to begin worrying right now anyways though. Any possible U.S. landfall is still 7+ days away.

[hurricanefloyd5]

You can't even predice that the es US is a possible threat?? IT maynot even be for the US???????

[Stormcenter]

LOL....the 00z GFS doesn't even have it at 48 hours.

Another Chris 2006 possibly?

[Regit]

the center appears to be forming more north than the models have it....not good also....

and a WNW to NW movement is noted over the past couple of hours as it is trying to get organized...

also not good...

I expect model guidance to shift north and take it close or over Jamaica...then once it is in the NW Caribbean that is where the fuzzy areas come in to play....but a SE US threat appears possible with this one.

I highly doubt that this is heading NW or that it will be a SE United States issue. With that building high, I just do not think it will be possible. This is going to go through the caribbean and will likely not be an issue to the FL east coast or anywhere north of there. More likely than not this will either be a Mexico/Central America storm or a GOM storm (assuming it actually even develops). No need to begin worrying right now anyways though. Any possible U.S. landfall is still 7+ days away.

Before you use a term like "not possible," read through the Ernesto threads from last year.

[Berwick Bay]

Still way too early to tell, but I like reading all the speculation about a future course. I also like the term "westrunner" which I've heard. Right now, that would have to be the best bet, but its way too early to tell if there might not be a break in the ridge(which I think would have to happen for it to affect Fl) or an erosion of the western end of it allowing for a gradual motion into the Gulf of Mexico. Models right now call for "
westrunner" on into the Yucutan. But still just too dogone' early. When its time I'll post my ideas in detail (Berwick Model), just think we need to give this another 36-48 hours before making a preliminary forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the center appears to be forming more north than the models have it....not good also....

and a WNW to NW movement is noted over the past couple of hours as it is trying to get organized...

also not good...

I expect model guidance to shift north and take it close or over Jamaica...then once it is in the NW Caribbean that is where the fuzzy areas come in to play....but a SE US threat appears possible with this one.

I highly doubt that this is heading NW or that it will be a SE United States issue. With that building high, I just do not think it will be possible. This is going to go through the caribbean and will likely not be an issue to the FL east coast or anywhere north of there. More likely than not this will either be a Mexico/Central America storm or a GOM storm (assuming it actually even develops). No need to begin worrying right now anyways though. Any possible U.S. landfall is still 7+ days away.

Before you use a term like "not possible," read through the Ernesto threads from last year.

yeah, I remember Ernesto..and really I think that was just a fluke. It had everything showing a westward track, and the mets agreed, but it decided to do it's own thing. We can't count on that happening every time though, so at this point it is probably just best to stick with the most likely scenarios and not worry about other possibilities until this is actually even a storm. Bottom line though is that no one needs to worry at this point. This system is still 7+ days away from any kind of U.S. impact, and we have plenty of time to watch it and monitor it's every move.

[hurricanefloyd5]

im going to issue a BEAR WATCH for the carribean and everyone else in the path of this storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skysummit]

Just a blow up or not....still pretty impressive structure. Like Brent said earlier...possible banding???

[Cyclone1]

Wow, it looks great!

[Extremeweatherguy]

That does look impressive! If it still looks like that (or better) tomorrow morning, then it will definitely have my attention. Persistance is the key.

[rockyman]

I think the "classic look" is deceiving...if you play a loop of the IR, the center appears to be on the western edge of the convection...not in the center

[Tropics Guy]

99L is bombing tonight, should be TD # 4 by 11 or 5 tomorrow!

[SaveNola]

Persistance is the key.

I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?

[Cyclone1]

Persistance is the key.

I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?

Well, it's... hmmmm.... that's a good question actually.

[CrazyC83]

That looks like TD4 almost...

[skysummit]

I think the "classic look" is deceiving...if you play a loop of the IR, the center appears to be on the western edge of the convection...not in the center

Are you thinking maybe about where my circle is?

[rockyman]

I think the "classic look" is deceiving...if you play a loop of the IR, the center appears to be on the western edge of the convection...not in the center

Are you thinking maybe about where my circle is?

Yes

[Normandy]

Sorry but there is no way that is the dominant center anymore....that is where the MLC was and it clearly is no longer there. The disturbance really doesn't have a center just yet.

Well maybe no way, but if it was to end up forming there id be really surprised.