Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Brent]

I'm going to say no because they will not upgrade with out a vortex message because with out that it means it does not have a closed circulation and is not a depression.

Yeah... we would have something by now.

[DrewFL]

Has anyone even seen a Vortex message?

[RL3AO]

Will we still get a STDS?

[skysummit]

Has anyone even seen a Vortex message?

I never saw one.

[DrewFL]

I haven't seen one either. Just checking.

[TCmet]

No vortex message = no depression at 5pm... despite my earlier thinking.

Convection needs to be sustained for at least 12hrs or so... we'll see what the next recon mission finds.

[cheezyWXguy]

definatly still a wave

...? It is not obviously a wave...it has disorganized convection, yes and is obviously not a td...however there is unofficial, at least, evidence of a closed circulation.

[dwg71]

Will we still get a STDS?

I dont think so, its really not any better than yesterday. Marginally at best, but steady convection around a "center" is dearly lacking. Nothing for another 12 hours or so at best.

[Aquawind]

Will we still get a STDS?

Nah.. barely a rain threat..really no threat now..more like " possible development in 24-48 hours" imo

[NONAME]

Will we still get a STDS?

They might but with it so close to the TWO it will most likely be there since they didn't find evidence of a Closed Circulation.

[storms in NC]

Has anyone even seen a Vortex message?

you closed your eyes to fast. You didn't see it come across the botton of your screen. LOL So Sorry I had to say that.
But no Havn't seen one

[Brent]

Has anyone even seen a Vortex message?

No, there was not one and no real proof that there was a closed circulation(yes some light west winds but not much else)

I expect it'll get stronger wording in the TWO however and I defintely think this has a good chance at developing as long as the convection continues to fire.

[Cyclenall]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

Don't listen to what the TV or Radio says about this. They are usually wrong. I have seen so many errors on TV over the past few years it's a joke. I don't listen to it anymore.

We are at the point of like 4-5 posts per minute now in the thread!! I was about to send this point and already 5 people posted in less then a few minutes (another 3 when I tried to send post again!! (another 1 after that resend)).

[superfly]

...? It is not obviously a wave...it has disorganized convection, yes and is obviously not a td...however there is unofficial, at least, evidence of a closed circulation.

No vortex = no closed circulation

[DrewFL]

Ha Ha! I'm in a Vortex Trance about now!

[dwg71]

definatly still a wave

...? It is not obviously a wave...it has disorganized convection, yes and is obviously not a td...however there is unofficial, at least, evidence of a closed circulation.

It depends on your definition of "wave" is, if its not a TD, then its a wave by default correct?

[cheezyWXguy]

definatly still a wave

...? It is not obviously a wave...it has disorganized convection, yes and is obviously not a td...however there is unofficial, at least, evidence of a closed circulation.

It depends on your definition of "wave" is, if its not a TD, then its a wave by default correct?

Actually Im pretty sure its called a tropical low...

[dwg71]

There is so many terms thrown around, who can keep them straight. Area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave - hows that?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Those west winds found by the recon were 1-5 kt puffs on the SE side of the center. Passes on the western side of the storm found only easterly winds.

Therefore, via Recon and Quickscat, there is no closed circulation.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It l;ooked like a certain depresison to me. Until that thing that looks almost like an outflow boundary went racing out Westward away from where I would have guessed the center to be.


That isn't a good sign for development.