Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Stormcenter]

The models are everywhere with this "potential" development which means nothing
will develop. As I said before I'm not worried until I see it develop.
Potential means nothing just look at today's NFL games. A lot of teams have potential but if they don't show to play it means nothing.

[jeff]

Computer models including nearly all of the global models have been consistent since late Friday in developing a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico this week. While all of the models are showing TC formation they are differing on where the system comes from and how it develops. The CMC develops a low off the E coast of FL and tracks it westward along the northern Gulf coast into SE LA by early next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF develop lower pressures over the central Gulf of Mexico on the east side of a strong TUTT low which will be moving from FL to TX this week. These models bring a weak surface reflection toward the TX coast in what would likely be a highly sheared TS similar to Erin. The NOGAPS and UKMET show development in the Caribbean Sea and track NW into the Gulf of Mexico…it should be noted the NOGAPS is much more westward on its 12Z run than its 00Z run yesterday evening taking a system toward S FL.


Tossing the model guidance aside and just looking at the upper air pattern and tropical surface features…does show a tropical wave moving westward through the central Caribbean Sea and a trough over the SE US which is forecast to fracture allowing the TUTT to form near FL in the next 48 hours. While it would be possible for the TUTT to work its way to the surface over time I am leaning more toward the Caribbean wave developing into a closed low as it moves into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. As the TUTT moves westward in the Gulf toward the TX coast upper air venting on its eastern side will help the upper air pattern over anything trying to develop over the west Caribbean or SE Gulf later this week. As the upper high remains over the eastern US ridging back SW into LA anything that forms would likely track to the WNW or NW toward the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. Once the TUTT moves inland over TX near excellent upper air outflow pattern will become established over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact the upper air setup looks somewhat similar to late September 2005 (Rita) with stronger than usual ridging along the US Gulf coast for mid to late September and early September 1961. While this would suggest a threat to the western Gulf...it is getting later in the year and troughs are deepening...so several days out things can change big time and all interest along the Gulf of Mexico should keep a close watch on the Gulf this week.

[Ivanhater]

Euro is another crazy solution...runs north up eastern gulf , runs northern gulf and hits Southeast Louisiana...similar to nogaps and gfs..

[ROCK]

Computer models including nearly all of the global models have been consistent since late Friday in developing a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico this week. While all of the models are showing TC formation they are differing on where the system comes from and how it develops. The CMC develops a low off the E coast of FL and tracks it westward along the northern Gulf coast into SE LA by early next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF develop lower pressures over the central Gulf of Mexico on the east side of a strong TUTT low which will be moving from FL to TX this week. These models bring a weak surface reflection toward the TX coast in what would likely be a highly sheared TS similar to Erin. The NOGAPS and UKMET show development in the Caribbean Sea and track NW into the Gulf of Mexico…it should be noted the NOGAPS is much more westward on its 12Z run than its 00Z run yesterday evening taking a system toward S FL.


Tossing the model guidance aside and just looking at the upper air pattern and tropical surface features…does show a tropical wave moving westward through the central Caribbean Sea and a trough over the SE US which is forecast to fracture allowing the TUTT to form near FL in the next 48 hours. While it would be possible for the TUTT to work its way to the surface over time I am leaning more toward the Caribbean wave developing into a closed low as it moves into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. As the TUTT moves westward in the Gulf toward the TX coast upper air venting on its eastern side will help the upper air pattern over anything trying to develop over the west Caribbean or SE Gulf later this week. As the upper high remains over the eastern US ridging back SW into LA anything that forms would likely track to the WNW or NW toward the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. Once the TUTT moves inland over TX near excellent upper air outflow pattern will become established over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact the upper air setup looks somewhat similar to late September 2005 (Rita) with stronger than usual ridging along the US Gulf coast for mid to late September and early September 1961. While this would suggest a threat to the western Gulf...it is getting later in the year and troughs are deepening...so several days out things can change big time and all interest along the Gulf of Mexico should keep a close watch on the Gulf this week.

thanks Jeff....haven't seen you around lately....hope all is well...

[skysummit]

The models are everywhere with this "potential" development which means nothing
will develop. As I said before I'm not worried until I see it develop.
Poenetial means nothing just look at today's NFL games. A lot of teams have potential but if they don't show to play it means nothing.

Ok...I'm making sure to save this post.

[Ivanhater]

The models are everywhere with this "potential" development which means nothing
will develop. As I said before I'm not worried until I see it develop.
Poenetial means nothing just look at today's NFL games. A lot of teams have potential but if they don't show to play it means nothing.

Ok...I'm making sure to save this post.

[Comanche]

Computer models including nearly all of the global models have been consistent since late Friday in developing a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico this week. While all of the models are showing TC formation they are differing on where the system comes from and how it develops. The CMC develops a low off the E coast of FL and tracks it westward along the northern Gulf coast into SE LA by early next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF develop lower pressures over the central Gulf of Mexico on the east side of a strong TUTT low which will be moving from FL to TX this week. These models bring a weak surface reflection toward the TX coast in what would likely be a highly sheared TS similar to Erin. The NOGAPS and UKMET show development in the Caribbean Sea and track NW into the Gulf of Mexico…it should be noted the NOGAPS is much more westward on its 12Z run than its 00Z run yesterday evening taking a system toward S FL.


Tossing the model guidance aside and just looking at the upper air pattern and tropical surface features…does show a tropical wave moving westward through the central Caribbean Sea and a trough over the SE US which is forecast to fracture allowing the TUTT to form near FL in the next 48 hours. While it would be possible for the TUTT to work its way to the surface over time I am leaning more toward the Caribbean wave developing into a closed low as it moves into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. As the TUTT moves westward in the Gulf toward the TX coast upper air venting on its eastern side will help the upper air pattern over anything trying to develop over the west Caribbean or SE Gulf later this week. As the upper high remains over the eastern US ridging back SW into LA anything that forms would likely track to the WNW or NW toward the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. Once the TUTT moves inland over TX near excellent upper air outflow pattern will become established over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact the upper air setup looks somewhat similar to late September 2005 (Rita) with stronger than usual ridging along the US Gulf coast for mid to late September and early September 1961. While this would suggest a threat to the western Gulf...it is getting later in the year and troughs are deepening...so several days out things can change big time and all interest along the Gulf of Mexico should keep a close watch on the Gulf this week.

Your input is always greatly appreciated.

[perk]

The models are everywhere with this "potential" development which means nothing
will develop. As I said before I'm not worried until I see it develop.
Poenetial means nothing just look at today's NFL games. A lot of teams have potential but if they don't show to play it means nothing.

Ok...I'm making sure to save this post.

Yeah he will be the one screaming next week, oh my god oh my god we're all gonna die.

[perk]

Computer models including nearly all of the global models have been consistent since late Friday in developing a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico this week. While all of the models are showing TC formation they are differing on where the system comes from and how it develops. The CMC develops a low off the E coast of FL and tracks it westward along the northern Gulf coast into SE LA by early next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF develop lower pressures over the central Gulf of Mexico on the east side of a strong TUTT low which will be moving from FL to TX this week. These models bring a weak surface reflection toward the TX coast in what would likely be a highly sheared TS similar to Erin. The NOGAPS and UKMET show development in the Caribbean Sea and track NW into the Gulf of Mexico…it should be noted the NOGAPS is much more westward on its 12Z run than its 00Z run yesterday evening taking a system toward S FL.


Tossing the model guidance aside and just looking at the upper air pattern and tropical surface features…does show a tropical wave moving westward through the central Caribbean Sea and a trough over the SE US which is forecast to fracture allowing the TUTT to form near FL in the next 48 hours. While it would be possible for the TUTT to work its way to the surface over time I am leaning more toward the Caribbean wave developing into a closed low as it moves into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. As the TUTT moves westward in the Gulf toward the TX coast upper air venting on its eastern side will help the upper air pattern over anything trying to develop over the west Caribbean or SE Gulf later this week. As the upper high remains over the eastern US ridging back SW into LA anything that forms would likely track to the WNW or NW toward the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. Once the TUTT moves inland over TX near excellent upper air outflow pattern will become established over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact the upper air setup looks somewhat similar to late September 2005 (Rita) with stronger than usual ridging along the US Gulf coast for mid to late September and early September 1961. While this would suggest a threat to the western Gulf...it is getting later in the year and troughs are deepening...so several days out things can change big time and all interest along the Gulf of Mexico should keep a close watch on the Gulf this week.

Great analysis Jeff.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you Jeff.

The models sure have been underestimating the ridge in the early
cycles- which means that this storm, with a large ridge building-
that Huge ridge Jeff mentions- Most likely a threat to the
Western Gulf, maybe central gulf.

Ridge should probably protect the florida peninsula from
this, but anywhere from the fl panhandle to Texas
should watch closely. Again this is just my amateur
forecast it is not official.

Remember how the ridge was underestimated with dean/felix? That
could be happening here- ridge being underestimated. Those in Texas, Louisiana,
and maybe slightly east of there should watch this the most.

[jhamps10]

jeff, that was the most detailed analysys of this I have seen. thank you very much for that.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro looks more like SW LA rather than SE LA, just east of TX border then north to near Shreveport.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

[chadtm80]

Map Above is NOT A FORECAST, merely a possibility based on model support
http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[jhamps10]

DISCLAIMER!!!!! I am not a professional meteorologist, nor do I claim to be, this is just the thoughts of me, and not of S2K, NWS, NHC, or any professional met or forecaster. and i do accept all thoughts, goor or bad. so lay the hammer down on me if you want.

Right now, the models seem to be confused on this, however we have good convection from the wave as it is starting to interact with the monsoonal trough from Colombia. the area that it is in right now is unfavorable, and we should not see development for the next 36 hours at the earliest. now, once it gets past say the south central D.R., and out of the TUTT that is shredding Ingrid to pieces, we will see conditions change to a more favorable and then we should see the system develop.

The heat content in the carribean and gulf is very high still, remember this is still mid september, so anything in good favorable conditions will have the CHANCE of getting into a major. I think that it will possibly clip the western cuban coast as it goes NW with the ridge building in turning it more WNW with time.


I do think that it will be more of a central, or NW gulf threat (New Orleans west down to the mexico border). My thoughts on will it become a major, it is possible don't get me wrong, but I don't have enough knowledge to say for sure. but what I WILL say is this, that if you live along the GOM, keep VERY close eyes on the tropics this week, as it could boil up real quick once it gets past the TUTT killing Ingrid.

my earliest best guess is that it could reach a hurricane, and that Texas and Louisana is in the greatest threat for now. AGAIN, this can change as we are a LONG way out in tropical and weather timeline here. so it could be a whole different ballgame.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro looks more like SW LA rather than SE LA, just east of TX border then north to near Shreveport.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

Yes, and it comes dangerously close to the SW coast of FL two days prior to that in the 12Z Euro.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro looks more like SW LA rather than SE LA, just east of TX border then north to near Shreveport.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

yep...finds weakness at some point...most models at this point agree somewhere along north gulfcoast...timing looks to be the key on this one...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 162118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[jhamps10]

cycloneye see 2 posts

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12Z Euro looks more like SW LA rather than SE LA, just east of TX border then north to near Shreveport.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

Yes, and it comes dangerously close to the SW coast of FL two days prior to that in the 12Z Euro.

I have a question- if there's a ridge wouldn't that protect SW FL or does it come
close to SW FL and then turn West towards LA/TX? I thought ridges push it away?
I'm confused

I mean I see that this will most likely end up near LA/TX but I am
wondering how it is possible to come near SW FL with that ridge.