ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Ok. Thanks for the clarification though. This ENSO stuff is quite complicated though, yet I'm interested in it. I don't know as much about the ONI. So which means if our first trimonthly would be AMJ, it would be April as when the El Niño threshold began. And when do you think the El Niño will most likely be declared?

I can't say for sure when CPC will pull the trigger. My guess has always been May or June. If we continue to warm and get to near moderate status (in the past CPC often upgrades when it has around 0.7-1C with definitive conclusion an event will keep going they do it, they don't always wait for ONI like in 2009 which was MJJ but came out in August however CPC pulled the trigger in July likely realizing ONI had a good chance of appearing above 0.5C. Interest in ENSO within this board has definitely improved over the years and has really kicked off the past few years.

About ONI, a lot of ENSO is averaging out long spans as it is a seasonal phenomenon that takes a lot of time to progress. For instance we've gone through several downs for this event, but the net result in the end for this year so far has been gradual warming of the tropical Pacific since February, regardless of what the "noise" has done. While April did not produce wall to wall readings of 0.5C if May comes above that and June above 1C the three months would average out greater than 0.5C just for example. Meaning the event tried to get going in April and continued beyond thus it began within that trimonthly period as it was a process.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ok. Thanks for the clarification though. This ENSO stuff is quite complicated though, yet I'm interested in it. I don't know as much about the ONI. So which means if our first trimonthly would be AMJ, it would be April as when the El Niño threshold began. And when do you think the El Niño will most likely be declared?

I can't say for sure when CPC will pull the trigger. My guess has always been May or June. If we continue to warm and get to near moderate status (in the past CPC often upgrades when it has around 0.7-1C with definitive conclusion an event will keep going they do it. Interest in ENSO within this board has definitely improved over the years and has really kicked off the past few years.

About ONI, a lot of ENSO is averaging out long spans as it is a seasonal phenomenon that takes a lot of time to progress. For instance we've gone through several downs for this event, but the net result in the end for this year so far has been gradual warming of the tropical Pacific since February, regardless of what the "noise" has done. While April did not produce wall to wall readings of 0.5C if May comes above that and June above 1C the three months would average out greater than 0.5C just for example. Meaning the event tried to get going in April and continued beyond thus it began within that trimonthly period as it was a process.

What if next week we see a +0.7°C reading, then the week after it goes up to +0.8°C, would they declare it?

[Ntxw]

What if next week we see a +0.7°C reading, then the week after it goes up to +0.8°C, would they declare it?

Probably not, however if it was to stay there or rise through late May with good consensus AMJ ONI will work out it's definitely something to consider late in the month

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Greatly resembles 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking of a 1972-1997-2009 hybrid for now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What if next week we see a +0.7°C reading, then the week after it goes up to +0.8°C, would they declare it?

Probably not, however if it was to stay there or rise through late May with good consensus AMJ ONI will work out it's definitely something to consider late in the month

Oh, so this has a better chance to be declared by June if so.

[stormkite]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pl4ZYSHq_0#t=209[/youtube]
11/5/14 part 1

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCgsxPbAvk[/youtube]



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... 3SToR9nfXQ

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Too excited, but we may see at least some 3ºC anomalies pop up the surface over Niño 1+2 in a few weeks and probably some 4ºC anomalies by Niño 1+2 and 3ºC by Niño 3 and 3.4 later this year. I don't get why forecasts arr getting less bullish as warming is at the rate when they were more bullish. But still, this would not be as strong as the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 PDO is stronger than any other pre-El Niño at the latest update, April but 1986. This is after 1950.

This list below only includes years having at least a moderate El Niño, having an ONI greater than 1.0.

1951 : -0.36
1957 : -0.58
1963 : -0.41
1965 : 0.62
1968 : -1.03
1972 : -1.65
1982 : -0.19
1986 : 1.55
1991 : -1.01
1994 : 1.05
1997 : 1.05
2002 : -0.32
2009 -1.65
2014 : 1.13

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Subsurface ended up being stronger than previous forecasts. Does this mean a stronger El Niño?

[NDG]

This week Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 continue to warm up nicely, but Nino 3.4 & 4 have slightly cool down if not staying the same, IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This week Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 continue to warm up nicely, but Nino 3.4 & 4 have slightly cool down if not staying the same, IMO.

Yes. You are definitely correct about Niño 4 cooling as the warming is starting to be more east based. We could see massive warming in 1+2 probably near or at strong status and Niño 3 warming close or higner than +0.7ºC but Niño 3.4 would most likely warm too at +0.6ºC because of some warming out there. Niño 3.4 daily anomalies show a warming trend.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CPC Equatorial Pacific Ocean SST Anomaly Departures
May 14 1997
Niño 1+2 : +2.4ºC
Niño 3 : +0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 : +0.6ºC
Niño 4 : +0.6ºC

Could 2014 surpass those readings in 1997 in Niño Regions 3, 3.4 and 4? Niño 1+2 however is very hard to surpass. This is an unbelievable reading! Later that year, an anomaly of +4.6ºC was reported there in Niño 1+2!

[cycloneye]

Latest outlook by NOAA released at 5/15/14


CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
ENSO-NEUTRAL TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS BY
THE SUMMER OF 2014 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
EQUATOR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS HAVE RECENTLY EMERGED NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS OF DEVELOPING EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS, SUCH AS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE
EQUATOR OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS. EL
NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL,
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG PREDICTIONS OF THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT.



THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2014 INDICATES ELEVATED ODDS
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION ARE RESTRICTED TO STATES ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM FLORIDA TO NEW ENGLAND.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR
ALASKA.



THE JJA 2014 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE REGION OF ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHWARD TO IDAHO AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.



IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES,
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS SHOWN.



THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR SON 2014 - MAM 2015 ARE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE TYPICAL CLIMATIC ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE CHANCES OF AN EL NINO OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
RELIABLY INFLUENCE THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE U.S. APPEAR AT
THIS TIME TO BE AROUND OR JUST UNDER 70%. THE EVOLUTION OF THE ENSO CONDITIONS
IN THE COMING MONTHS IS CRITICAL TO THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES THIS FALL AND WINTER.
THIS MONTH`S CLIMATE OUTLOOK AT LONGER LEADS REFLECTS THE ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED
WITH EL NINO, BUT WITH REDUCED CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO
STATE. IF THE EXPECTED ENSO STATE CHANGES IN THE NEXT FEW MONTH, SUBSTANTIAL
REVISIONS MAY BE MADE ON FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR WINTER 2014-2015.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/P ... S/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN INDICATE THAT A
TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY. THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS
SHOW SST ANOMALIES OF +0.5 DEGREES C ALONG THE EQUATOR THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +1.0 C IN PLACES. POSITIVE SST
ANOMALIES HAVE RECENTLY APPEARED NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST. STRONGLY POSITIVE SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RESULTING FROM
A KELVIN WAVE HAVE PUSHED THE SUB-SURFACE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OF THE UPPER 300 M
IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT CONTENT HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 30-DAYS AFTER THE PASSING OF THE
DOWNWELLING PHASE OF THE KELVIN WAVE, BUT REMAINS AT AROUND 1.2 C ABOVE NORMAL
IN EARLY MAY. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF A WARM ENSO EVENT WITH WEAK
WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AT LOW LEVELS, AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE OCEAN BASIN. MEAN ANOMALIES AT THIS POINT ARE
STILL FAIRLY WEAK, AND NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES HAVE ONLY RECENTLY REACHED THE
+0.5 DEGREES C THRESHOLD INDICATIVE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS, SO THE CURRENT ENSO
STATE IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS NEUTRAL. HOWEVER, IF CURRENT CONDITIONS PERSIST,
A TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE CFSV2 PREDICTS NINO 3.4 SST
ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND +1.0 C BY LATE SUMMER. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS
PREDICT SSTS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE +0.5 DEGREE C ANOMALY THRESHOLD ASSOCIATED
WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST PREDICTS THE SST
ANOMALY FOR NINO 3.4 TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO ITS FORECAST OF ONE MONTH AGO
AND HAS ANOMALIES INCREASING TO JUST UNDER 1.0 C BY THE FALL. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE IMME AND NMME ALSO PREDICT SST ANOMALIES
INCREASING FROM +0.5 C IN JUNE TO NEAR +1.0 BY OCTOBER. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE POSSIBLE EVENT. THE
CONTINUED WEAK FORECAST FROM STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF
EL NINO DEVELOPING BY LATE SUMMER. THE COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL SST PREDICTION METHODS SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE MODERATE EVENT, ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG EVENT, OR A RETURN TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS,
THOUGH LESS LIKELY, CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=90D

[Kingarabian]

Dr. Kevin Trenberth from that video xtyphooncyclonex posted, is saying that we may we have entered a positive PDO era.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dr. Kevin Trenberth from that video xtyphooncyclonex posted, is saying that we may we have entered a positive PDO state.

The PDO has been positive all year.

No reason to suggest we've entered an era of +PDO, especially considering we just exited one in 2007.

[Kingarabian]

Dr. Kevin Trenberth from that video xtyphooncyclonex posted, is saying that we may we have entered a positive PDO state.

The PDO has been positive all year.

No reason to suggest we've entered an era of +PDO, especially considering we just exited one in 2007.

Sorry I meant era*.

[Kingarabian]

I know that NOAA does not want to jump the gun, but they should at least give a strong Nino a fighting chance.

[Ntxw]

I know that NOAA does not want to jump the gun, but they should at least give a strong Nino a fighting chance.

As a major forecasting agency it's protocol to often go conservative on these things. They have left plenty of doors open for a stronger event. It's just not typical to forecast something extreme such as a strong ENSO event. Once the event gets going and you're at moderate status they then become more bullish. If you go back in this thread you will see that for various El Nino and La Nina events.

[Kingarabian]

I know that NOAA does not want to jump the gun, but they should at least give a strong Nino a fighting chance.

As a major forecasting agency it's protocol to often go conservative on these things. They have left plenty of doors open for a stronger event. It's just not typical to forecast something extreme such as a strong ENSO event. Once the event gets going and you're at moderate status they then become more bullish. If you go back in this thread you will see that for various El Nino and La Nina events.

I thought so too. Don't want to scare the public with a "Strong El-Nino is possible". Media would be like: "STRONG NINO ON ITS WAY. CLICK HERE TO PREPARE YOURSELF".