Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[AtlanticWind]

Storm to Slam Florida could Gain Tropical Characteristics
A storm system is expected to emerge into the Straits of Florida Monday and pummel the state throughout the upcoming week. Torrential rainfall will likely produce flooding across the peninsula, while high winds blast the coastline of Florida and some neighboring states. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring the potential for this storm to gain tropical characteristics and become the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

From Accuweather

Yeah...30 mph gusts...quick! To the bat cave!

I gotta put up some plywood

[AtlanticWind]

while high winds blast the coastline


Thats my favorite qoute from Accuweather , Get real

[boca]

One of the local channels said that most likely that system south of Cuba would deepen and most likely move thru the Bahamas, less likely the GOM. This would put S FL on the dry side of this sytem.Although we could get afternoon storms it wouldn't be a wash out which is what we need.

Are those the same local channels that said that Wilma would be a Cat 1, and generally end up predicting the opposite of what is going to happen sometimes lol?

This is Florida, and this is the tropics. Anything can happen.

It was channel 10 Miami

[Evil Jeremy]

Huh, isnt that ABC with Max Mayfield? Anyways, we wont be sure what happens until it happens.

Anyways, convection (haven't used that word in a while lol) is on the decrease, though the system seems to be getting a little better defined.

[boca]

It looks like that low approaching Cuba will continue moving north far enough east of S FL.If we get rain its going to be from the trough over the SE US.I hope I"m wrong because we need this badly.The drought index is over 700 now in Palm Beach County. My reasoning is that the trough isn't moving east that quickly to force that low west across Florida into the GOM.The winds are S and SW in front of the trough hence the N and eventually NE movement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Previous page 7 pm timed post on non-named storm- that was from Joe Bastardi.



He sees a hybrid howler affecting mainly Eastern Florida, and satellite sort of looks like what ever is happening around Jamaica and Cuba is coming up on the East side of Florida.


A good soaking would be great as fire as minimizing fire season in Florida, with the Pepsi 400 race from Daytona a little over a month away.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS rolling in, should be an interesting run.

[boca]

00z GFS rolling in, should be an interesting run.

I agree I'm waiting up on this one even though I have to get up at 6:30am.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What goes east of florida should be pushed by the high back west.
But even if it misses SE FL, the trough over the gulf is starting to
fire convection further south into the NE and Central Gulf...by tomorrow
the convection should expand far south and so SE FL should still
get a lot of rain and not miss out.

I say this because some were concerned that S FL would miss the rain-
but there will be enough moisture/instability to dump IMO 2-3+ inches over
a large part of S. FL. Possibly MUCH more too.

[deltadog03]

You guys relize that the NAM (ya not great) is putting up some VERY impressive numbers for QPF across florida. Anywhere from 3-8" over the next 60 hours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You guys relize that the NAM (ya not great) is putting up some VERY impressive numbers for QPF across florida. Anywhere from 3-8" over the next 60 hours.

That would really reduce the drought if I recall correctly.

[CronkPSU]

this is great, camp starts in just three weeks, let it rain for the next week! "get it out of our system" so to speak, camp was very very very dry and the lakes were getting low, this is perfect as long as it doesn't stall over us like fay

[Aric Dunn]

You guys relize that the NAM (ya not great) is putting up some VERY impressive numbers for QPF across florida. Anywhere from 3-8" over the next 60 hours.

yeah .. well just near here in N central Florida just got nearly 6 inches of rain .... today

[Aric Dunn]

and holy GFS.. front a little faster..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

and holy GFS.. front a little faster..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Oh yea, should play an interesting role as we get further into the run.

[RL3AO]

Aric, are you mainly looking for when it becomes vertically stacked in the model runs?

[Evil Jeremy]

This GFS run is pushing the low out East, away from even the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, are you mainly looking for when it becomes vertically stacked in the model runs?

huh?

[RL3AO]

Aric, are you mainly looking for when it becomes vertically stacked in the model runs?

huh?

For when it becomes warm core.

[Aric Dunn]

This GFS run is pushing the low out East, away from even the Bahamas.

no .... just watch ... its going to come back west again!! i sad holy. cause the rain is going to crazy..