Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Maybe its time to re-read some basics on Chaos Theory? Three images on this page alone: 288, 264 and 120-hour forecasts.

Oy veh!

The forum is called "Talkn tropics". If you don't like it, don't read it. I could care less if someone posted an 800 hour model image.

[ConvergenceZone]

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

IF the Sal and Dry air kill the chance of this developing, then I'm going to become skeptical of anything getting going this year, and label this year "the year of sal and dry air"

[cycloneye]

IF the Sal and Dry air kill the chance of this developing, then I'm going to become skeptical of anything getting going this year, and label this year "the year of sal and dry air"

The wet MJO will take care of that. But,if that doesn't get things going,then you may have a good point.

[northjaxpro]

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

IF the Sal and Dry air kill the chance of this developing, then I'm going to become skeptical of anything getting going this year, and label this year "the year of sal and dry air"

I wouldn't write it off completely yet ConvergenceZone if this particular pouch somehow would not develop. We can get CV systems right on into late September. But, I admit that the SAL so far to this point has been an debilitating factor with the African waves struggling to maintain themselves or even going poof.

[Vortex]

less than an hour till 18Z GFS rolls....

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't write it off completely yet ConvergenceZone if this particular pouch somehow would not develop. We can get CV systems right on into late September. But, I admit that the SAL so far to this point has been an debilitating factor with the African waves struggling to maintain themselves or even going poof.

Not to get off topic, but it does seem like with every tropical wave this year, they all seem to struggle because of dry air.... I didn't remember dry air being so dominant last year.

[Vortex]

Maybe its time to re-read some basics on Chaos Theory? Three images on this page alone: 288, 264 and 120-hour forecasts.

Oy veh!

The forum is called "Talkn tropics". If you don't like it, don't read it. I could care less if someone posted an 800 hour model image.

Well said Michael....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Most models do develop 17L after 55w. Which is not a good thing for landfall. Some take it south of Florida and some take it through Florida. That's not the real point right now. The problem is if it develops after around 50w-55w with the pattern setting up. Somebody is in trouble.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

[wxman57]

IF the Sal and Dry air kill the chance of this developing, then I'm going to become skeptical of anything getting going this year, and label this year "the year of sal and dry air"

The wet MJO will take care of that. But,if that doesn't get things going,then you may have a good point.

I don't see any MJO impact across the basin through at least the next month. I suggest reading the expert discussions here concerning what the models are showing with regard to the MJO signal. Some of those graphics that are posted here which are supposed to show MJO enhanced convection are not actually showing convection associated with a TRUE MJO, but with other transitory features:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

Here's the PDF version of the expert discussion. It's updated once a week on Monday.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensembles are still very much on board....threatening South Florida

[CourierPR]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

[ozonepete]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

Not sure where he got that from. When SE PAC is busy Atlantic is usually quieter; inverse relationship to some degree.

[Portastorm]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

Not sure where he got that from. When SE PAC is busy Atlantic is usually quieter; inverse relationship to some degree.

I believe he was referring to the pulse effect that tropical action would be amplified first in the SW Pac, then SE Pac, then Atlantic.

[ozonepete]

Dr. Masters always has great insight. Here's the latest sat rgb, sal, mid-level wv and shear for this system. SAL is not terrible. WV is not terible either but not too good but the satellite shows convection starting to flare anyway.

Sure has a large circulation envelope.

[ozonepete]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

Not sure where he got that from. When SE PAC is busy Atlantic is usually quieter; inverse relationship to some degree.

I believe he was referring to the pulse effect that tropical action would be amplified first in the SW Pac, then SE Pac, then Atlantic.

Thanks, Portastorm!

[JTE50]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

SW Pacific? Do you mean NW Pacific- Typhoon land ?

[ozonepete]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

SW Pacific? Do you mean NW Pacific- Typhoon land ?

I assumed they meant SW part of North Pacific. LOL.

[ozonepete]

I believe he was referring to the pulse effect that tropical action would be amplified first in the SW Pac, then SE Pac, then Atlantic.

BTW, this all shows you the state of the art in teleconnections! We have along way to go. I didn't know about that one (pulse). I DO follow them but I still haven't found them to be very accurate. I've been burnt by MJO one too many times.

[jlauderdal]

Most models do develop 17L after 55w. Which is not a good thing for landfall. Some take it south of Florida and some take it through Florida. That's not the real point right now. The problem is if it develops after around 50w-55w with the pattern setting up. Somebody is in trouble.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

care to guess what four models are the reliable ones?

[Macrocane]

care to guess what four models are the reliable ones?

I think that he is talking about GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and UKMET, I have seen that he never mentions the Canadian in his discussions although IMO the Canadian is more reliable than NOGAPS.