2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Here we go, 12Z GFS continues to show development near the Cape Verde islands starting around a week from now. Cape Verde season looks like it is about ready to kick off:

[tropicwatch]

Here is the 12z 24hr run for GFS and GEM. Kind of interesting.

[SFLcane]

[blp]

We need to see if the Euro picks up on this because right now the GFS looks to be alone on the systems behind 94l. Let's see what the 12z Euro says.

[Hurricaneman]

We need to see if the Euro picks up on this because right now the GFS looks to be alone on the systems behind 94l. Let's see what the 12z Euro says.

The 12zEuro has something weak but something that the GFS has been advertising coming from that area in SW Mali so it seems like the GFS has a little support from the Euro so that puts it up 1 notch in the possibility of happening

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[Hammy]

I have extreme doubt after all the models showing a strong storm off the EC only for nothing to happen, but the GFS continues to show a good intensity tropical storm developing within four days, so if nothing else this should be watched closely as a test for the GFS update's strength with short-term MDR development. It's done well (so far) as far as not developing phantom storms in the short term, so lets see if the streak continues.

If nothing else we can have some fake storms to watch after weeks of models devoid of anything.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to insist the MDR will get active over the next 7-14 days with multiple systems rolling off Africa.

For example, 240 hours below:



384 hours:

[TheStormExpert]

Does the GFS even take into consideration the massive amounts of SAL and Dry Air?

[Siker]

:uarrow: Does the GFS even take into consideration the massive amounts of SAL and Dry Air?

In this case it's more of a question of whether the GFS is accounting for the negative Kelvin Wave that will be traversing the East Atlantic soon after formation of the first system.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Does the GFS even take into consideration the massive amounts of SAL and Dry Air?

In this case it's more of a question of whether the GFS is accounting for the negative Kelvin Wave that will be traversing the East Atlantic soon after formation of the first system.

That too is just one of the many factors that should kill Tropical Development out there.

[Siker]

The GFS has upward motion over Africa, but sinking air over the Eastern Atlantic for a relatively long period of time. The question is whether a wave can become robust enough over Africa and get going quickly off the coast to resist the sinking motion it will have to deal with.

[Hammy]

GFS still showing a system on August 6, but a bit weaker this run.

Question concerning last week's horribly failed runs showing a strong storm off the east coast or Gulf, is it possible that (since all the models showed similar solutions) that the shear data itself that went into the models was bad or otherwise incomplete?

[floridasun78]

look bad did with 94l few models was showing system with 94l that fail

[jlauderdal]

GFS still showing a system on August 6, but a bit weaker this run.

Question concerning last week's horribly failed runs showing a strong storm off the east coast or Gulf, is it possible that (since all the models showed similar solutions) that the shear data itself that went into the models was bad or otherwise incomplete?

the tropical atlantic is not conducive until further notice...don't get sucked into these model storms, this is going to be a very tough year, i know this is not what you want to hear concerning development but this scenario was in the cards several months ago and its playing out exactly as predicted

[Hammy]

the tropical atlantic is not conducive until further notice...don't get sucked into these model storms, this is going to be a very tough year, i know this is not what you want to hear concerning development but this scenario was in the cards several months ago and its playing out exactly as predicted

Oh, I'm by no means expecting something to form (but in model runs discussion, it bears discussing at least) and would be surprised if we don't follow 2006 by having nothing until the last week of August. My question was more why all models (including the usually reliable and generally conservative Euro) managed to be so spectacularly off in falsely showing a strong hurricane off the EC.

[TheStormExpert]

the tropical atlantic is not conducive until further notice...don't get sucked into these model storms, this is going to be a very tough year, i know this is not what you want to hear concerning development but this scenario was in the cards several months ago and its playing out exactly as predicted

Oh, I'm by no means expecting something to form (but in model runs discussion, it bears discussing at least) and would be surprised if we don't follow 2006 by having nothing until the last week of August. My question was more why all models (including the usually reliable and generally conservative Euro) managed to be so spectacularly off in falsely showing a strong hurricane off the EC.

IMHO the Euro had to have been forecasting a favorable upper level environment. Kind of have to give it to the GFS on this one.

[beoumont]

Just looking at the menu: 00z August 2 image

[gatorcane]

Beaumont, you just beat me to it. So here is another view of Africa I pulled and annotated. It looks rather active as we head into Aug. The yellow circle I drew is the wave that the GFS is trying to develop in about 5-6 days near the Cape Verde islands though we do note the GFS is trending less bullish on development of this wave with each run and none of the other models show development at this time.



18Z GFS 126 hours with the low showing some development near the Cape Verde Islands:

[Hammy]

GFS back to showing development within 96 hours, and while there's no other models supporting it,the Euro shows a pretty strong closed low about to emerge at the 240 hour mark

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS coming in. It is more bullish and bringing the timeframe in on development of the strong wave over Africa, which starts around 4 days from now, south of the Cape Verde islands. It has what looks like a hurricane at 992MB. I drew a yellow circle around the area the GFS is developing: