2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[stormlover2013]

Maybe something brewing, but blah on long range, I'm a 4-6 day model guy don't trust long range one bit

[wxman57]

Keep an eye on the wave along 26W next week. This could well be the feature that the GFS develops into a storm in the Gulf over the 4th of July weekend. It's not much to look at on satellite (yet), but it has plenty of energy.

[tropicwatch]

uh oh, wxma57 on board everybody what out

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro has nothing through 240 hours in the Caribbean and the home grown gulf storm has vanished in one run .

[stormlover2013]

Figured it would disappear on euro

[Alyono]

EC seems to have the monsoon trough in the EPAC, while GFS and NAVGEM have it in the Caribbean.

EC has been brutal this year with regards to the monsoon trough in the EPAC. Has been cranking out phantoms there. The trough has been more in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Keep an eye on the wave along 26W next week. This could well be the feature that the GFS develops into a storm in the Gulf over the 4th of July weekend. It's not much to look at on satellite (yet), but it has plenty of energy.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Here is the East Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Keep an eye on the wave along 26W next week. This could well be the feature that the GFS develops into a storm in the Gulf over the 4th of July weekend. It's not much to look at on satellite (yet), but it has plenty of energy.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Here is the East Atlantic.

http://i.imgur.com/BNMjw5D.gif

Note that the wave axis is around 26-27W, it isn't associated with that blob of convection east of 20W on the sat pic. Currently, the wave is quite devoid of convection.

[TheStormExpert]

18z coming in weaker and much further west due to land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Final landfall in SE Louisiana with a mslp pressure of 1001mb on 18z July 4th.

Will change at least two dozen times so take with a grain of salt.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Consistency is all that matters. Intensity is almost impossible to forecast. If they keep showing it another 4 or 5 runs or another model jumps onboard we have reason to watch

[wxman57]

There is consistency in that the GFS continues to indicate something brewing in the western Caribbean by next Friday. Where it goes, who knows...

[SFLcane]

[northjaxpro]

There is consistency in that the GFS continues to indicate something brewing in the western Caribbean by next Friday. Where it goes, who knows...

You better believe I am watching this closely. I am scheduled to be in the Big Easy on the July 4th holiday weekend, so when the GFS, even in long range, keeps indicating a possibility of a tropical cyclone in the the NW Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico, you have to keep an wary eye on it. If more models jump on board in the next couple of days, I will really start paying close attention.

.

[thundercam96]

There is consistency in that the GFS continues to indicate something brewing in the western Caribbean by next Friday. Where it goes, who knows...

You better believe I am watching this closely. I am scheduled to be in the Big Easy on the July 4th holiday weekend, so when the GFS, even in long range, keeps indicating a possibility of a tropical cyclone in the the NW Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico, you have to keep an wary eye on it. If more models jump on board in the next couple of days, I will really start paying close attention.

.

I am watching this closely too.. I have a camping trip planned for the Steinhatchee River area that weekend.

[gatorcane]

All of the global models are showing a large weakness over the northern Gulf Coast and SE United States at day 10 around the time the GFS develops the system in the Western Caribbean. So there is a reasonable chance if something were to develop around this timeframe it could get pulled north into the Gulf. Bears watching for sure.

For example, the 12Z ECMWF day 10:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The panhandlers express


Fortunately. Just models for now.

[stormlover2013]

Lol it's 10 days away I wouldn't even look at that till about 4-5 days out

[RL3AO]

Lol it's 10 days away I wouldn't even look at that till about 4-5 days out

You're not required to participate in the thread then.

[stormlover2013]

All I'm is saying is some people get giddy when it's 10 days out of more, all I'm saying is until we see consistency from other models and euro then just wait and see, no reason to look at the upper level pattern right now when it's 10 days out because it's going to keep changing, it might show Mexico next

[RL3AO]

This is a model discussion thread. Everyone understands that the models are often wrong 10 days out. Its just that type of comment has a habit of getting posted 10 times per day when it gets busy.