Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

GFS lol could be right on this lol

[Cpv17]

Euro tracks it thru FLA Penninsula and that delays any development.

Models often overestimate the effect Florida has on a tropical system. If it’s a tropical low in its infant stages, the friction of land could actually help consolidate the low.

Especially the Everglades and south Florida in particular.

[SoupBone]

Euro tracks it thru FLA Penninsula and that delays any development.

Florida is fairly flat, but I guess that minimal land interaction doesn't allow it to become stronger.

[Dylan]

I wouldn’t be so reactionary to the strength. This westward moving track from the Bahamas, through South Florida or the Florida straights into the Gulf or Mexico has a history of producing the most prolific hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Models have a history of undergoing these events.

The ridge over-top, along with a boiling Gulf of Mexico, and the approaching MJO should be cause for concern. This is literally the equivalent of throwing a lit match into a pool of gasoline.

[moja.ram]

Greetings. I'm new to the website and have been reading this thread. I'm suppose to travel to Havana, Cuba this Saturday and returning Tuesday afternoon; should I be concerned? I see people are split on if this could form into anything or not based on the models. NHC.NOAA does not show any tropic disturbance in that area (at least yet), although there is one near Africa, I think (correct me if I'm wrong) but if that does form and happens to head towards Cuba it would arrive after Tues.

Euro has it farther north in that time frame. You'd probably see some showers and maybe some gusty winds, but this doesn't look like a scenario where Cuba is faced with anything strong. It would appear that if this ever gets going, it would be west of 90W. If it comes in farther east (e.g. 00Z EC into the FL Panhandle), it would be farther north to begin with. JMO

Thanks Steve! I appreciate your reply!

[MississippiWx]

Obviously a weaker run by the Euro. Conditions may not be favorable until the system makes it into the Gulf. GFS develops it in the Western Gulf along with several of its ensembles. FV3 does the same. Still 5+ days away and this is a very favorable area climatologically speaking.

[Cpv17]

GFS lol could be right on this lol

I believe ultimately this storm will get into the western Gulf and be a problem for Texas or Louisiana, especially if it stays weak for the next few days.

[stormlover2013]

Gulf will be prime and ready, upper level conditions should be ok

[Steve]

EC @ 192 over SELA. Looks like a decent TD or possibly lower end TS or so. It moves west into 216 hours and is in SWLA at that point apparently heading for Texas but overland.

192 Hours


216 Hours

[SoupBone]

Gulf will be prime and ready, upper level conditions should be ok

This is actually a huge question mark. I've been watching the shear for the last several weeks over the Louisiana and Texas area, and it's had an ebb and flow from hostile to neutral to favorable. So the question is, what will have an effecting/creating shear as this system were to make it's way toward either those coastlines.

[Cpv17]

With this setup, this wave could easily get into the western Gulf

[PSUHiker31]

Meh at all the hand wringing about strength. I remember both models showing Harvey as a mere nothing in Texas this far out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Meh at all the hand wringing about strength. I remember both models showing Harvey as a mere nothing in Texas this far out.

Yea, the ECMWF had something like a 1006mb low making landfall in Texas like 5 days out at one point. Models struggle with these types of scenarios.

[Cpv17]

Meh at all the hand wringing about strength. I remember both models showing Harvey as a mere nothing in Texas this far out.

I agree. I’m curious to see the ensembles.

[stormlover2013]

CP17 where u from

[Cpv17]

CP17 where u from

SE TX. Looking like lots of rain coming for my area over the next week or two.

[Sambucol]

CP17 where u from

SE TX. Looking like lots of rain coming for my area over the next week or two.

Same here in SETX. Harveyland.

[toad strangler]

CMC and Navy both lost it. Euro weaker and GFS very weak.

[SFLcane]

It could get quite rainy across South Florida...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.