Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[BigB0882]

This is the largest moisture convergence I have seen all year.
Pulling everything out of the ITCZ all the way to South America.
Even cutting off Rene and Paulette.
Its the whole monsoon trough rolled up into a powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/edmGgud.png

https://i.imgur.com/os0aKrT.png

Would that suggest that this will be a very large system when/if it forms? It seems we have had a lot of tiny storms this season and none that I can recall thinking were large.

[EquusStorm]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

I think the record is 5 at once including a depression or two set in 1971 but could be wrong.

I get the feeling that season cancel and ACE complaints will abruptly end by the end of next week

[plasticup]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

I think the record is 5 at once including a depression or two set in 1971 but could be wrong.

I get the feeling that season cancel and ACE complaints will abruptly end by the end of next week

The complaint people are making now is that yes this is an above average season and yes we are going to use Greek names and yes it will probably meet the hyperactive criteria as well and yes we are deeper into the name list than ever before but 2005 had more majors at this time of year so 2020 is basically a dud.

Like we aren't watching one of the most remarkable hurricane seasons of all time unfold before our eyes.

[ouragans]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

The record is 5, in 1995 between August 22nd and 29th. There was Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen and Luis all together.

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

[us89]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

The record is 5, in 1995 between August 22nd and 29th. There was Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen and Luis all together.

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

[plasticup]

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

The record is 5, in 1995 between August 22nd and 29th. There was Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen and Luis all together.

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

That seems like a poor design.

[ouragans]

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

That's even worse... because it's more than possible. 2020, guys...

[TheStormExpert]

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

That's even worse... because it's more than possible. 2020, guys...

What’s this system you’re speaking of? Never heard of it.

[AutoPenalti]

This is going to be one of the most complicated models runs of the year IMO.

[crownweather]

The record is 5, in 1995 between August 22nd and 29th. There was Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen and Luis all together.

My trouble is what happens if there are more than 6, knowing that NHC advisories TCPAT are numbered 1 to 6

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

That seems like a poor design.

I just asked the question on Twitter. I'll let you know if/when I get an answer.

[Cat5James]

Who else is anxiously awaiting the 12Z model runs??

[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS Tracks 0-144hr:



0Z ECMF Tracks 0-240hr

[us89]

They're only numbered 1 through 5 - so it would only take 6 concurrent storms to break that system.

That's even worse... because it's more than possible. 2020, guys...

What’s this system you’re speaking of? Never heard of it.

It has to do with the NWS's product issuance systems...

Every bulletin the NWS sends out comes with a header code. For the NHC's tropical cyclone products, the first three letters are the product type, the next two are the basin, and the last is a number designating which storm it is. So, for example, the public advisories for Paulette are issued with the "TCPAT2" header - TCP for public advisory, AT for Atlantic, and 2 for the storm number. Discussions are TCDAT2, forecast advisories are TCMAT2, and so on.

When the next storm forms, the number is bumped up one. So Rene's advisory products are TCPAT3, TCDAT3, and so on. As new storms form, the storm number is increased until it gets to 5 - after which it resets back to 1. So basically, what this means is with the current system, the NHC does not have the capability to issue advisories on more than five tropical cyclones in one basin at the same time.

[LarryWx]

Who else is anxiously awaiting the 12Z model runs??

The twists and turns for this have been some of the largest I can recall seeing. But then again, it has only just now reached water.

[GCANE]

This is the largest moisture convergence I have seen all year.
Pulling everything out of the ITCZ all the way to South America.
Even cutting off Rene and Paulette.
Its the whole monsoon trough rolled up into a powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/edmGgud.png

https://i.imgur.com/os0aKrT.png

Would that suggest that this will be a very large system when/if it forms? It seems we have had a lot of tiny storms this season and none that I can recall thinking were large.

Need to see next day or two how big the LL vort is.

[ouragans]

What’s this system you’re speaking of? Never heard of it.

Advisories, Forecasts, Marine and Discussion bulletins hold a code to classify the type of message. TCPAT is for Advisory for an Atlantic (Tropical Cyclone Public message ATlantic). Each TC holds a number, 1 to 5, and when a 6 TC is classified, it starts over.

What happens if there are 6 TC?

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest ICON now also shows the system




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ouragans]

And we are not alone with that question

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1304074773467729927

[tomatkins]

Who else is anxiously awaiting the 12Z model runs??

The twists and turns for this have been some of the largest I can recall seeing. But then again, it has only just now reached water.

Not that it matters too much - but the ICON, which had been a holdout as far as spitting this thing out to the eastern Atlantic is now on board with the 12z run for a Caribbean track, with the eastern piece of the waves energy going north through the Cabo Verde islands.

[aspen]

12z GFS is rolling on Tropical Tidbits. It’s once again showing delayed development and two TCs, the lower-rider (this wave) and a northern system (the next wave).