Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/1321864895210684419

[SFLcane]

Very few members into CA.

[AutoPenalti]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

Needs more spaghetti.

[GCANE]

I think this may be the top of the wave

[underthwx]

I think this may be the top of the wave

https://i.imgur.com/qNFE3lt.png

Once the wave reaches the central or western Carribean, is it expected to be stationary?...

[tomatkins]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

ITs possible that the low has already dissipated for those members. You really need the tracks in this case.

[Blown Away]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

Seems all the operational models bury a decent storm into CA.

[underthwx]

I think this may be the top of the wave

https://i.imgur.com/qNFE3lt.png

Healthy looking wave at this time...I can see why it's at 60 per cent through 5 days...

[gatorcane]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

Seems all the operational models bury a decent storm into CA.

Here you go, many are into CA and a lot less threatening for Florida on this run, just one ensemble gets close.

[aspen]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

Seems all the operational models bury a decent storm into CA.

Here you go, many are into CA and a lot less threatening for Florida on this run, just one ensemble gets close.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqcBnqvq/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh54-198.gif

The ones that don’t go into CA stall out for a bit before moving north. That could be something to watch out for.

[TheStormExpert]

Very few members into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/43m29S15/BCAAE364-158-C-4280-AFA6-9-FEEA2603-C59.jpg

The question is where do they go from there?

Hard to go against the operational runs when most models now bury this into CA.

[SoupBone]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

Just because the model is saying it’s going to CA doesn’t mean it will. Things change. We still need to watch & plus, do we have a low to track yet???

I don't understand posts like this. He makes a post regarding the models being in fairly good agreement which they are, and he gets the lecture about how models don't determine track. I've never seen a single poster here suggest this.

Then you have others posting analogs such as Hurricane Mitch (1998) and you hear crickets.

We all understand that this is way out there and things change, this type of post only serves to stifle conversation just because it suggests a potential track that is not a US based threat.

[Loveweather12]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

Just because the model is saying it’s going to CA doesn’t mean it will. Things change. We still need to watch & plus, do we have a low to track yet???

I don't understand posts like this. He makes a post regarding the models being in fairly good agreement which they are, and he gets the lecture about how models don't determine track. I've never seen a single poster here suggest this.

Then you have others posting analogs such as Hurricane Mitch (1998) and you hear crickets.

We all understand that this is way out there and things change, this type of post only serves to stifle conversation just because it suggests a potential track that is not a US based threat.

Great monologue but what’s your point?..
Don’t write the season until no storms are forming. Everyone says the season is over and look where we are. It bears repeating & I will repeat because it’s important.
Thanks

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro through 144 hours:

[aspen]

Here are the possible outcomes i think could be on the table for Eta:
1.) later development, TS or minor hurricane into CA
2.) quicker development and RI, major into CA
3.) quicker development, strong enough to get caught in the weakness on Day 4, enters NW Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

Just because the model is saying it’s going to CA doesn’t mean it will. Things change. We still need to watch & plus, do we have a low to track yet???

Models are prone to errors too. But climatology favors odds of a storm or hurricane just moving due west underneath a ridge into Central America. And right now that’s what all deterministic runs show.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z Euro through 144 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/7b8pDn3Q/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-144.gif

The trough is just not deep enough to pull this north. The NAO remains positive so that lends credence to the deterministic model runs that move future-Eta into CA.

[Blinhart]

Once again the GEFS ensembles are away from CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/brHtrqDB/717-E3-FD2-462-B-4-BCD-82-A9-523-AD271-EF52.jpg

That one that is 948 just North of the Bahama's, is scary.

[gatorcane]

Wow the Euro has this crossing over into the EPAC.

Would we still call it ETA?