2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

Appears we're getting another period of weak trades in the Atlantic MDR in a few days. The last period was ineffective in boosting SSTs, so we'll need to see if this upcoming spell will help warm things up before the official start of the hurricane season.
https://i.ibb.co/QHMXVm2/gfs-15-N-hov-u ... 1518-1.png

How much it warms is the question because right now is well below the positive line and it has to go up bigtime to achieve that.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1393271090303098882



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1393299794802712578



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1393307570585100292



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1393309267223093250




This kind of background state would likely result in a very stable MDR during ASO, given much cooler SST relative to the global tropics.

[Iceresistance]

Mid-May Global SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin . . .



The MDR is below normal, But I've seen it below normal here before & then it rapidly gets hotter in JJA . . .

[Kazmit]

Mid-May Global SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl5c508c45b1f5fb64.png

The MDR is below normal, But I've seen it below normal here before & then it rapidly gets hotter in JJA . . .

That is such an interesting signature with that dark red in a completely straight line pointing from the Bahamas to Spain.

[Category5Kaiju]

To be honest, I cannot recall a recent year in mind when that kind of signature was evident in May. Still imho I find it very hard to believe that the MDR will not warm up in the summer months, but if I had to place a bet I would think this profile would still call for a fairly active year

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1394020365517479938

[aspen]

Mid-May Global SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl5c508c45b1f5fb64.png

The MDR is below normal, But I've seen it below normal here before & then it rapidly gets hotter in JJA . . .

This is just so odd. Phil and others have been saying the MDR should warm up, but the warmer subtropic band and the cooler MDR have only been further amplified. If this doesn’t change quick enough, increased stability will become an issue for TCG, and SSTs won’t be quite high enough to support some long-tracking majors. They won’t be cold by ASO, but they won’t be capable of supporting something like Irma, followed by Jose, followed by Maria in 2017.

2021 is starting to look a little less like a MDR year than previously anticipated, which would be good for the islands if that turns out to be the case.

[Category5Kaiju]

To put this "sst anomalies being cool" buzz into some perspective, the most recent year when cool MDR anomalies actually stuck around in ASO was 2014. That year was a warm neutral/weak El Nino year as well, and even years like dead 2013 and 2009 to an extent did experience warming in the MDR by ASO. I have mentioned this before, but I would be quite surprised and confused to see this cool MDR actually persist in ASO; that would certainly cause me to deeply question the dynamics of tropical activity in the Atlantic.

It is also very interesting to note that the subtropics are way above average but the Atlantic Nino 3 (the equatorial and below like near the Gulf of Guinea) region is also above average. It's only the MDR with cool anomalies that is wedged in between the much warmer subtropics to the north and the equator/Gulf of Guinea to the south. I still am not quite sure why the MDR is cool though, dust? Stronger than normal trades?

[toad strangler]

Mid-May Global SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl5c508c45b1f5fb64.png

The MDR is below normal, But I've seen it below normal here before & then it rapidly gets hotter in JJA . . .

This is just so odd. Phil and others have been saying the MDR should warm up, but the warmer subtropic band and the cooler MDR have only been further amplified. If this doesn’t change quick enough, increased stability will become an issue for TCG, and SSTs won’t be quite high enough to support some long-tracking majors. They won’t be cold by ASO, but they won’t be capable of supporting something like Irma, followed by Jose, followed by Maria in 2017.

2021 is starting to look a little less like a MDR year than previously anticipated, which would be good for the islands if that turns out to be the case.

meh, last year had long track signature written all over it. Didn't happen. Too many eggs are laid in the MDR SST basket.

[Category5Kaiju]

Mid-May Global SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl5c508c45b1f5fb64.png

The MDR is below normal, But I've seen it below normal here before & then it rapidly gets hotter in JJA . . .

This is just so odd. Phil and others have been saying the MDR should warm up, but the warmer subtropic band and the cooler MDR have only been further amplified. If this doesn’t change quick enough, increased stability will become an issue for TCG, and SSTs won’t be quite high enough to support some long-tracking majors. They won’t be cold by ASO, but they won’t be capable of supporting something like Irma, followed by Jose, followed by Maria in 2017.

2021 is starting to look a little less like a MDR year than previously anticipated, which would be good for the islands if that turns out to be the case.

meh, last year had long track signature written all over it. Didn't happen. Too many eggs are laid in the MDR SST basket.

Last year had an interesting issue where the ITCZ was traffic jammed and waves literally clumped together, making MDR development tough. I think the very strong WAM had something to do with this (as well as creating very dry environments here in the first place from that Godzilla dust cloud in June). However, I would like to caution that if a year were to feature development closer to land and not in the MDR, that could be bad in the sense that it gives less time to prepare for a storm like Gustav, Katrina, or Michael

[SFLcane]

Um holy cow South Florida!

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1394048135610224645

[cycloneye]

Very interesting.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1394076304140558336




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1394076307529641984

[DestinHurricane]

Um holy cow South Florida!

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1394074639953973255

Doubt that small dot is gonna mean anything. A signal like that is way too small and random to be taken serious. For a storm to hit South Florida, there are far better indicators and most have more to do with the MDR considering most of our storms come from there.

[Hammy]

Very interesting.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1394076304140558336

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1394076307529641984

Isn't this type of setup what led to the generally reduced intensities and lack of lower-latitude strengthening during most of 2011-12?

[SFLcane]

Um holy cow South Florida!

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1394074639953973255

Doubt that small dot is gonna mean anything. A signal like that is way too small and random to be taken serious. For a storm to hit South Florida, there are far better indicators and most have more to do with the MDR considering most of our storms come from there.

Oh sure is it’s based on 51 euro ensembles. He has been doing this for a while and has a pretty good track record. That small dot covers all of south Florida and might imply tracks similar to Irma but we shall see. Overall the 500mb from euro for aso is no bueno I posted a few days ago.

[SFLcane]

Look at forecast for GOM last season. No much else to be said. Drop mic

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1251581242262401024

[Category5Kaiju]

Are there really any notable analog years to the sst profile we are seeing now at this point in May? To be honest I have never seen anything like this from what I can remember ever since I started tracking hurricanes in 2016 and from my knowledge of hurricane stuff in general. A cool MDR sandwiched in between a very warm subtropics and warmer than average equator/South Atlantic?

[toad strangler]

Um holy cow South Florida!

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1394048135610224645

That's a classic FL peninsula track signature verbatim. Obviously it's impossible to predict general tracks this far out but this signal is just another in a long line that says watch out Greater Antilles ...... Bahamas .... SE USA / E Seaboard as CSU discussed in their outlook. NOAA #ONDECK

[crownweather]

Um holy cow South Florida!

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1394048135610224645

That's a classic FL peninsula track signature verbatim. Obviously it's impossible to predict general tracks this far out but this signal is just another in a long line that says watch out Greater Antilles ...... Bahamas .... SE USA / E Seaboard as CSU discussed in their outlook. NOAA #ONDECK

Another thing I noticed about that map is the signal over northern Mexico & South Texas. Track density looks ***somewhat*** similar to 1999 whereas we had Bret moving up the NE Mexico coast into the lower Texas coast & then Floyd which came VERY close to impacting the entirety of the SE & E coast of Florida. FYI - 1999 is one of the analog years I'm using for this season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Um holy cow South Florida!

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1394048135610224645

That's a classic FL peninsula track signature verbatim. Obviously it's impossible to predict general tracks this far out but this signal is just another in a long line that says watch out Greater Antilles ...... Bahamas .... SE USA / E Seaboard as CSU discussed in their outlook. NOAA #ONDECK

Another thing I noticed about that map is the signal over northern Mexico & South Texas. Track density looks ***somewhat*** similar to 1999 whereas we had Bret moving up the NE Mexico coast into the lower Texas coast & then Floyd which came VERY close to impacting the entirety of the SE & E coast of Florida. FYI - 1999 is one of the analog years I'm using for this season.

I've actually heard some other people in the wx community argue that 1999 is actually a good analog for this year, in fact 1999 actually had a cool MDR at this point in time but then later produced 5 major hurricanes (all Cat 4s with Floyd even getting very close to a 5 and the notorious Wrong Way Lenny).