Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[SFLcane]

Copy and paste NHC 2PM TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system
moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards
the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend
or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Landsea

Has the "development cone" changed since this morning?

[Frank P]

Euro 12z makes landfall near Mexico Beach, but quite weak... hard to believe this system will be that weak with east GOM temps absolutely boiling...

[wzrgirl1]

Yes the development cone shifted noticeably west.

[BobHarlem]

Well some sort of agreement now between the two major models, just a LOT of rain. Euro does hang out more inland and crosses over Central Florida unlike GFS which eventually wanders over toward Alabama, but still tons of rain for the peninsula in either case. (GFS is stronger though)

[wxman57]

Euro doesn't develop a TD until it's east of Florida next Wed-Thu. Just general low pressure in the eastern Gulf but lots of rain for Florida. It's suggesting a possible hurricane heading north toward Long Island in 11-12 days.

[3090]

Euro doesn't develop a TD until it's east of Florida next Wed-Thu. Just general low pressure in the eastern Gulf but lots of rain for Florida.

By Sunday, 8/4, the ECMF has the 1011 low in the southern/SE GOM, off the northwest end of Cuba. Not much of a system at that time. Broad. BIG time POTENTIAL flooding rains for Florida.

A tropical system, does not need to be a named system, to cause major damage.

All eyes need to be focused on this system going forward.

[sunnyday]

When does the so-called force field come into play that often protects Florida’s east coast and particularly the SE coast of the state?

[jlauderdal]

When does the so-called force field come into play that often protects Florida’s east coast and particularly the SE coast of the state?

When I fire up my generator, which will be soon if this continues, some of you know what I am talking about.

I still dont buy the Euro AI with the loop off the East Coast going into the gulf. The loop or stall scenario seems more likely today. Be very careful with intensity, dont read too much into weak or strong at this point as it nears the lower 48.

[toad strangler]

When does the so-called force field come into play that often protects Florida’s east coast and particularly the SE coast of the state?

There is no such thing lol. Just circumstance. It's often used in jest when a tropical system veers away in the 4th quarter or anytime really. Just a joke.

[sunnyday]

I was speaking in jest about the force field b c people joke about it here. I definitely know there is no such thing.

[Stratton23]

EPS has more members stalling in the gulf, some go up the east coast, and some get shoved more westward by the building upper level ridge

[Steve]

And to no ones surprise, the euro caves to the GFS, showing a stall in the NE gulf now

It's not necessarily a surprise, but I wouldn't have laid money on it. When in doubt the EC has been more right over the years. It still can go a lot of ways including split energy though if the southern "lobe" is the dominant one, the move toward FL or west of FL makes sense. Plus the GFS is aligned with the MJO and also climatology for this one being so early in August where you have to think more left and stronger ridging as a general rule.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1818718048192467013

[Steve]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1818718048192467013

love me some Dylan

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1818719740275364221

[AtlanticWind]

The Euro run is concerning for rainfall in Florida moving system slowly across state from the gulf

[BobHarlem]

The Euro run is concerning for rainfall in Florida moving system slowly across state from the gulf

The general setup for a stall is concerning, crazy rainfall either way, but a stall over water vs land could change the whole dynamic, or center relocations, etc. (See GFS getting to cat 2)

Tidbits flavor of the GFS Total precip (24" scale top)

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA unlike the prior 12Z JMA does come back ENE to E of N FL

[weeniepatrol]

really really REALLY not a fan of some of these model solutions...

[Emmett_Brown]

SSTs are VERY warm in the E GOM... widespread area of 30 C and higher. Models depict low shear in the E GOM this weekend as well. It would be nice to get some hurricane models running on this