TD#9

[caribepr]

I am not minimalizing the threat. I am merely stating that it is premature to suggest east coast landfall. If someone wants to advise that the residents in the islands need to watch this one, that is perfectly acceptable. Until there is clear evidence of intensification for at least 6 hours, advising about east coast landfall would, in my estimation, be jumping the gun a little. This is not yet officially even a tropical storm. It is a very serious situation for the islands until we see more northward movement.

Hey thanks! I'll get the word out

[cinlfla]

I am not minimalizing the threat. I am merely stating that it is premature to suggest east coast landfall. If someone wants to advise that the residents in the islands need to watch this one, that is perfectly acceptable. Until there is clear evidence of intensification for at least 6 hours, advising about east coast landfall would, in my estimation, be jumping the gun a little. This is not yet officially even a tropical storm. It is a very serious situation for the islands until we see more northward movement.

Umm, not trying to be rude or anything but your contradicting yourself
" This is not yet officially even a tropical storm. It is a very serious situation for the islands until we see more northward movement"

If its not a tropical storm which we all know its not then why is it a serious situation for the islands?

[gkrangers]

TD9 would have to go due west at this point to even affect the most northward lesser/greater antilles.

The biggest threat from TD9/Irene to the antilles will be rip currents and beach erosion.

This is not official bla bla bla..

[sma10]

I am not minimalizing the threat. I am merely stating that it is premature to suggest east coast landfall. If someone wants to advise that the residents in the islands need to watch this one, that is perfectly acceptable. Until there is clear evidence of intensification for at least 6 hours, advising about east coast landfall would, in my estimation, be jumping the gun a little. This is not yet officially even a tropical storm. It is a very serious situation for the islands until we see more northward movement.

Can you provide ANY evidence as to why this should be considered a "very serious situation for the islands"? Don't you think that declaring TD9 a "very serious situation for the islands" might be a bit of an exaggeration at this point?

[hurricanedude]

Its there opinion, take it or leave it

[Homey]

"minimalizing"................is that a word.........what does it mean?

[hurricanedude]

reducing the threat...simple !!!

[elysium]

O.K., well now that I have seen where this storm is relative to the Leewards, you are right. This isn't something that the islands needs to watch. It appears as though T.D. 9 is nearly north of that latitude now. Not sure that it is completely out of the question for possible interaction with the northern islands, but highly unlikely.

It just appeared for a while that T.D. 9 might still possibly move west sooner, but that's not likely. But it did look a little west there for a while.

[wxman57]

T.D. 9 will have to pull farther to the north than it is doing at this hour before clearing the Greater Antilles is safely assumable. In about 72 hours the last possibility for any appreciable northward movement will have passed until late in the forecast period at around day 9 or 10.

The center of TD 9 is already 60nm north of the northern Greater Antilles.

[cycloneye]

It is a little premature to suggest at this early juncture that T.D. 9 is an imminent threat to the east coast. What it is that we are witnessing taking shape is only the early beginnings of an Andrew like scenario in which a rapidly intensifying hurricane is positioned under a building ridge locked onto a westward heading, travelling through the south central/ southern Bahamas. Since T.D. 9 or 95L has not yet even reached tropical storm status, we must wait until clear evidence comes into the forum suggesting that at least a moderate intensification cycle has begun. And while i have pretty much grown tired reminding everyone that 95L may yet still run itself out, until we have clear-cut evidence of intensification, we should refrain from any declarations of east coast landfall. Only frame by frame review of satellite download suggestive that an intensification process is clearly underway will free us to post declarations on possible landfall targets. What must not jump the gun.

It's already north of the islands in latitud (Now 19.0n) so your statement is way off the mark and please the next time base your opinions with scientific data.

[Sanibel]

It could be that this west wobble is the storm releasing from the ULL...

[gkrangers]

AHHHHHHHHHH ITS WOBBLING WEST BARBADOS LOOK OUT!!!

[Sanibel]

Because someone says the word "wobble" does not merit a pavlovian ridicule post.


Harvey is shooting north while TD9 is wobbling west. Could be the sign of a building ridge between the two (missing trough)...

[storms in NC]

Because someone says the word "wobble" does not merit a pavlovian ridicule post.

Harvey is shooting north while TD9 is wobbling west. Could be the sign of a building ridge between the two (missing trough)...

I think you are right on that one Sanibel
And also when the reports come out they are about a hour old.

[gkrangers]

Because someone says the word "wobble" does not merit a pavlovian ridicule post.


Harvey is shooting north while TD9 is wobbling west. Could be the sign of a building ridge between the two (missing trough)...

It wasn't meant as a shot at you.

[deltadog03]

yeah, ridge is building.....this did NOT interact directly...as far as path with that ULL...the northward repo was due to the center....also, this should continue to move around 270-280 with the Low Level Steering currents....not 300 like NHC says...

[elysium]

I should have said that I'm not reducing the the significance of the threat down to minimum level, it is just that discussions about possible east coast landfall are a little premature at this hour. But yes, T.D. 9 has in fact moved north of all the islands and is not heading west but rather west northwest. Actually, i had T.D. 9 due east of the northern most islands and thought that there was still some possibility of it heading west at that point. So I just wanted to make it clear that while we shouldn't prognosticate on east coast landfall, it wouldn't be too much to suggest that the islands consider this as a possible threat. In so doing I was clearly mistaken.

[Ivanhater]

hmm, when does the nhc think the trough will pick it up? i would think we should see a pull more toward the north soon if it was going to recurve

[cinlfla]

I just checked the 5:00 adv and it says its moving wnw.....nope I just looked and it looks to be moving due west, somebody needs new glasses.

[caribepr]

...So I just wanted to make it clear that while we shouldn't prognosticate on east coast landfall, it wouldn't be too much to suggest that the islands consider this as a possible threat. In so doing I was clearly mistaken.

Nice retraction, good on ya!

As Cycloneye said, some scientific facts in backing up very strong opinions are a good thing for everyone. Nothing wrong with being an opinion of one or a dozen, if there is some reasoning given, even if it's just "that's my gut feeling" - that way other readers can give value accordingly.