Convection Near Bahamas

[Josephine96]

Slight swirl by the little convection burst to Fla's east..

If those storms behind it can start to wrap around a bit.. we may get a TD or even a weak Beryl hitting Central/South Fla by weekend.

BRING IT ON PLEASE.. WE NEED THE RAIN!

[CHRISTY]

I think a LLC center may try to form somewere in the circle ive drawn up.

[The Hurricaner]

On the local NBC6 weather here, a couple minutes ago, Joe Gerald said it will likely be here mondayish taking a track into georgia, north florida, or right on top of lake ocachobe(this one least likely). Miami has a 50% chance of rain on monday too. Also that it may or may not become a TD.

And yes, please come here!

[CHRISTY]

On the local NBC6 weather here, a couple minutes ago, Joe Gerald said it will likely be here mondayish taking a track into georgia, north florida, or right on top of lake ocachobe. Miami has a 50% chance of rain on monday too. Also that it may or may not become a TD.

iam leaning on lake ocachobe or areas south of that.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Updates today from local Central/East FL news Mets:

(Channel 13 - Orlando Sentinel newspaper sponsored)
12 pm: "Don't expect the system to develop into somthing tropical, but it is expected to move west over Central Florida this weekend and deliver rain."

6 pm: "We are monitoring the system for development, and we will definitely be affected, but we don't expect much beyond heavy rain and TS or less winds for our area. However, the system will likely move into the GOM and there is differing opinions what will happen after that."

Channel 9 (ABC - Tom Terry):
6 pm: "Although this has not happened since the 1800's, there is a possibility that this thing could split and each take on a tropical identity. For us locally, we need to get ready for a lotta rain staring Saturday night, but maybe not until Sunday."

For me personally, I need a solid 4 (or more) inches of rain in a short period to test a new roof/roof repair that I have no confidence in.

Come on 91L/TD/Beryl -- tarps are ready!

[skysummit]

Maybe it's me, but I'm not sure how this looks better organized.

It's better organized at the surface. When before we really didn't have anything , however now pressures are gradually falling and a broad area of low pressure at the surface is trying to form.

[wxman57]

I don't know about a your intensity forecast, but as for as a Southwest motion, I can see that. Right now there's a high over Georgia and Alabama and the steering pattern through the Bahamas is toward the southwest.

I'm trying to understand the NHC's forecast of WNW drift, but I can't seem to grasp it. Any pro's care to chime in?

It's already on the southwest side of the Bermuda High. With an upper-level low to its southwest, a WNW to NW motion is most likely. Shear still looks to be very strong, though, as strong as yesterday or stronger. No sign of lowering pressure or a "broad circulation" developing on my surface analysis maps. I don't know what the NHC is looking at. Perhaps they mean in the mid-levels?

All I know is this thing better not screw up another weekend where I would have been NOT working. But I'm afraid it'll be another weekend of 12-hr shifts for a weak, sheared, TD or minimal TS. That's why it's most likely to develop - it's a weekend and I was scheduled to be at home.

[stormtruth]

:lol: Sorry - just getting a little humored by seeing "area of disturbed weather" so often. It kind of reminds me if the whole "person of interest" thing a few years ago from the FBI.

I know...I have an odd sense of humor.....

tropics not anthrax. stay focused

[tailgater]

At @ 27.5N 73.2 W there is the slightest hint of some outflow, While it"s being sheared from the SW you can see some higher cloud tops being blown West and Northwest. Not the outflow boundary, I see that also(not a good sign for development). Very few showers near the Broad center.
Check out some real tropical T-storms.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/205.jpg
Bet they are not hoping for rain.

[wxman57]

Maybe it's me, but I'm not sure how this looks better organized.

It's better organized at the surface. When before we really didn't have anything , however now pressures are gradually falling and a broad area of low pressure at the surface is trying to form.

Sorry, I don't see any falling pressures on the latest sfc analysis maps. The pressures there are still 1019-1020mb. There is ONE ship that has a 1016.4mb pressure, but it also is reporting winds inconsistent with other ships in the region, so I suspect it may have reported its position incorrectly. Ships are notorious for that, and for never calibrating their barometers. Maybe the NHC is looking at that bad (probably) ship report? WV loops indicate very strong shear from the SW to the east of the upper-level low.

[skysummit]

Well I guess someone better call the National Hurricane Center and let them know they don't know what they're doing.

[wxman57]

Well I guess someone better call the National Hurricane Center and let them know they don't know what they're doing.

I'm just saying I'm comparing a surface plot from yesterday at this time and today and there is no change except for that one ship with a lower pressure that I think may be suspect. I'm not sure what's going on with the NHC, they used a very strange FL to surface pressure reduction and said Alberto had 70 mph winds last week, when numerous surface obs in Alberto's path suggested max winds were 45-50 mph. They seem to be in "alarmist mode" this season. They're good forecasters, I have met most, if not all of them, and I see them regularly in the spring seminars/conferences.

[CHRISTY]

[AJC3]

I don't know about a your intensity forecast, but as for as a Southwest motion, I can see that. Right now there's a high over Georgia and Alabama and the steering pattern through the Bahamas is toward the southwest.

I'm trying to understand the NHC's forecast of WNW drift, but I can't seem to grasp it. Any pro's care to chime in?

It's already on the southwest side of the Bermuda High. With an upper-level low to its southwest, a WNW to NW motion is most likely. Shear still looks to be very strong, though, as strong as yesterday or stronger. No sign of lowering pressure or a "broad circulation" developing on my surface analysis maps. I don't know what the NHC is looking at. Perhaps they mean in the mid-levels?

All I know is this thing better not screw up another weekend where I would have been NOT working. But I'm afraid it'll be another weekend of 12-hr shifts for a weak, sheared, TD or minimal TS. That's why it's most likely to develop - it's a weekend and I was scheduled to be at home.

(paraphrased from a couple posts I made on another board)

Chris,

From what I see on vis imagery, there is definitely more amplitude to the inverted trough now compared to yesterday at this time. I can see more veering of the flow about the trough axis, with the CU field showing more N-S movement ahead of the trough axis and more S-N motion behind it. This indicates an increase in the H85 vort field in that general area. It's still a messy, open trough, however, and just about all the convection is east of the surface trough axis...in the divergent downstream from the upper trough. It appears that any amplification that might have taken place would owe itself to baroclinic forcing.

If the low closes off, the system would more than likely be at the very least (BE) type low, and the system would still be so disorganized w/r/t both convection and vorticity that one would be loath to call it a TC if it does. Moreover, it's becoming apparent that the H25 trough currently centered just NE of the northern Bahamas is probably going to remain entwined with whatever does or doesn't spin up at the surface. The upper trough is progged to remaining quasi-stationary through about 12Z SAT, and then retograde westward into Florida, just ahead of the surface trough/low. If this pans out, then it will likely stay close enough to keep some upper level shear over the system.

On the one hand this is less than ideal for true TC formation. On the other, the shear looks like it may be somewhat divergent, which tends to aid/ventilate convection. Hence, if any type of closed low was to form, upper conditions might be more conducive for a hybrid, baroclinically enhanced (BE), type low to form.

At this point, it's hard to argue with the strong signal from most of the guidance that at the very least, an inverted trough will be bringing some much needed rainfall to Florida for the latter half of the weekend.

[CHRISTY]

Guys here is a map i drew up....This my first time with this kind of map.Here it is.

[skysummit]

Who do you have to email at the NOAA Satellite and Information Service to request a Floater change? They have 4 floaters....one could at least be over this area of interest.

[MGC]

Wish they would move the floater. This system has potential to become a TC IMO. Should follow the low level flow around the high pressure system in the SE USA. Ga and Fla look to be potential areas of concern.....MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys here is a map i drew up....This my first time with this kind of map.Here it is.

Looks like it will be pushed west across FL and end up in the Gulf based on these steering currents. It could even make it all the way to Mexico if the Bermuda high shifts west.

[CHRISTY]

Guys here is a map i drew up....This my first time with this kind of map.Here it is.

Looks like it will be pushed west across FL and end up in the Gulf based on these steering currents. It could even make it all the way to Mexico if the Bermuda high shifts west.

lets see cause the NHC is calling it WNW but that may change with time.also its very to point out were this system may eventually go cause its still very disorganized.

[wxman57]

(paraphrased from a couple posts I made on another board)


From what I see on vis imagery, there is definitely more amplitude to the inverted trough now compared to yesterday at this time. I can see more veering of the flow about the trough axis, with the CU field showing more N-S movement ahead of the trough axis and more S-N motion behind it. This indicates an increase in the H85 vort field in that general area. It's still a messy, open trough, however, and just about all the convection is east of the surface trough axis...in the divergent downstream from the upper trough. It appears that any amplification that might have taken place would owe itself to baroclinic forcing.

If the low closes off, the system would more than likely be at the very least (BE) type low, and the system would still be so disorganized w/r/t both convection and vorticity that one would be loath to call it a TC if it does. Moreover, it's becoming apparent that the H25 trough currently centered just NE of the northern Bahamas is probably going to remain entwined with whatever does or doesn't spin up at the surface. The upper trough is progged to remaining quasi-stationary through about 12Z SAT, and then retograde westward into Florida, just ahead of the surface trough/low. If this pans out, then it will likely stay close enough to keep some upper level shear over the system.

On the one hand this is less than ideal for true TC formation. On the other, the shear looks like it may be somewhat divergent, which tends to aid/ventilate convection. Hence, if any type of closed low was to form, upper conditions might be more conducive for a hybrid, baroclinically enhanced (BE), type low to form.

At this point, it's hard to argue with the strong signal from most of the guidance that at the very least, an inverted trough will be bringing some much needed rainfall to Florida for the latter half of the weekend.

Oh, I agree that "something" will be developing over the next 24-48 hours. I saw a pretty sharp inverted trof along 75W yesterday, but we haven't had any ship reports to the east of that area today all day long to verify it's position/strength today. I'm fairly confident that should any mid level circulation work its way down to the surface by Saturday (pretty likely), that the NHC will call it a TD. I think they (NHC) just like to make me work every weekend.

But conditions aloft, as you say, aren't that favorable for much development. It's a rain threat all the way, not a wind or surge threat to Florida. My main concern is the loss of my weekend.