91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow thats a nice looking ULL.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait for another diurnal maximum and see if 91L will finally fight back before reaching the coast.

[gatorcane]

Wow thats a nice looking ULL.

Winds across South and East Florida indicating it must be at the surface. Mostly West across South Florida and East winds across East Central Florida.

[drezee]

Wow thats a nice looking ULL.

Winds across South and East Florida indicating it must be at the surface. Mostly West across South Florida and East winds across East Central Florida.

He was making a joke.

[ronjon]

The ULL is the dominant player here. Unless or until the ULL drills down to the surface or moves off, I can't see 91L doing much at all. I like the rainfall though. We could see 2-3 days of tropical downpours pretty much scattered across the entire peninsula.

[cheezyWXguy]

it already has...theres a surface circulation...read the post 2 above yours, ronjon

[wxmann_91]

TUTT and anticyclone are imposing 20 kt of easterly shear over the system. Not favorable for development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[cheezyWXguy]

actually the 20kt shear is that tiny little circle right behind the numbers, not that larger loop...thats 10kts

[gatorcane]

actually the 20kt shear is that tiny little circle right behind the numbers, not that larger loop...thats 10kts

Correct, UL winds are currently favorable for development.

[jusforsean]

ok so update me what exactly has happened, 91l is a main rain event i suppose and that is all? Where should the weather be mostly?
Thanks

[gatorcane]

ok so update me what exactly has happened, 91l is a main rain event i suppose and that is all? Where should the weather be mostly?
Thanks

It's doing nothing more than increasing the POPS across peninsula FL with the daytime heating. It has a chance to blow up during the diurnal phase later tonight at which time we could have a depression but at this time just looks to increase overall POPS across FL.

[cycloneye]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.


The above is the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for 91L.

[gatorcane]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.


The above is the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for 91L.

Seems the NHC still thinks there is a chance even though it really looks pathetic right now. But pressures are slowly falling and there is the Gulf stream so they must be factoring that in to this forecast (along with a good UL environment also).

[Dean4Storms]

It has a very small window to become Tropical if it can establish convection around and over the surface low tonight, but the chance is dwindling with time. I just don't see much of a chance of development with the lack of organization and the Florida coast getting much closer.

[gatorcane]

It has a very small window to become Tropical if it can establish convection around and over the surface low tonight, but the chance is dwindling with time. I just don't see much of a chance of development with the lack of organization and the Florida coast getting much closer.

I expect a gradual turn to the NW since the NHC is using the Georgia/SC border as a reference point.

[HURAKAN]

It will have to pull a miraculous Tammy!!!

[whereverwx]

Here's a RGB (AVI) loop of the system since June 22 0015Z: Download link

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is likely a very broad low just off the surface or maybe some what on the surface at 27/77. Which a MLC is just to the northeast of there. The Upper level low is arond 26 north/76 west which is very close to the LLC. Which is drawing in dry air=keeping convection from forming over the weak LLC. Maybe if that mlc to the northeast can keep getting closer to it. But the chances even if it did become a depression of the nhc upgrading it is about 1 percent.

[kenl01]

Yep, this system should remain quite weak, remaining a weak area of low pressure. At least it will likely produce a good chance of rain over the coastal SE tomorrow through Monday.
Still I think it's safe to get the fishing boat out Sunday

[The Hurricaner]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation <GFS takes it over SF then up to NF and on. I hope it takes this path. And its raining/thundering here now.