INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

cheezyWXguy · #461 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:07 pm

I have a gut feeling that this wont be the wave to develop, at least not into anything huge...but I have a feeling that in a few days when the shear relaxes that another wave is going to enter the carribean and become what some people expected this present wave to be(TS Beryl or stronger)
In fact it looks like that wave maybe coming now...it looks like banding is trying to form on the last big blob in the eastern atlantic...if this thing holds together and isnt moving too fast, then it could make it to the carribean when the conditions for development are less hostile

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

#462 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:41 pm

S and SSW winds at Trinidad and Tobago:

METAR TTCP 282000Z 17014KT 9999 SCT014CB SCT016 BKN100 27/24 Q1014 TEMPO SHRA

3 PM (19) Jun 28 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.94 (1014) S 7
2 PM (18) Jun 28 73 (23) 71 (22) 29.97 (1015) SSW 7 light rain
1 PM (17) Jun 28 75 (24) 71 (22) 30.03 (1017) Calm light rain with thunder
Noon (16) Jun 28 77 (25) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) SSE 14 light rain with thunder

HurricaneHunter914 · #463 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:45 pm

Looking at the look it seems like the wave is starting ot slow down.

#464 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:50 pm

684
WHXX01 KWBC 282020
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 0600 060629 1800 060630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 60.6W 13.6N 63.3W 15.1N 65.9W 16.6N 68.1W
BAMM 12.2N 60.6W 13.4N 63.8W 14.9N 66.7W 16.4N 69.3W
A98E 12.2N 60.6W 12.9N 64.0W 14.0N 67.0W 15.1N 69.6W
LBAR 12.2N 60.6W 13.4N 63.8W 15.0N 66.6W 16.9N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060630 1800 060701 1800 060702 1800 060703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 70.1W 19.7N 74.1W 20.5N 78.8W 21.3N 83.1W
BAMM 17.7N 71.8W 19.2N 76.9W 19.9N 82.7W 20.1N 87.8W
A98E 16.1N 71.8W 17.9N 76.7W 19.1N 82.3W 19.7N 87.4W
LBAR 18.5N 71.0W 22.0N 74.2W 23.2N 77.2W 23.0N 79.7W
SHIP 44KTS 46KTS 49KTS 51KTS
DSHP 44KTS 45KTS 48KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#465 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:52 pm

#466 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:54 pm

Looks like a possible GOMER storm.

Opal storm · #467 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:56 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like a possible GOMER storm.

I doubt it,a ridge will be building in pushing it more west to the Yucatan and possibly into the BOC.

#468 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:57 pm

#469 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:57 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like a possible GOMER storm.

Looks like the models keep adjusting left. It may not get noth of 15N before it runs into Central America.

#470 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:59 pm

Opal storm wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks like a possible GOMER storm.
I doubt it,a ridge will be building in pushing it more west to the Yucatan and possibly into the BOC.

Not sure of that yet... The ridge might not be nearly as strong by then.

Opal storm · #471 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:05 pm

Looks like it's moving due west right now.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/93L.html

Rainband · #472 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:11 pm

Hopefully it runs out of room

HurricaneHunter914 · #473 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:27 pm

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.

93L has gotten better organized despite shear! :eek:

Looks like its trying to pull an Epsilon.

#474 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:28 pm

Latest TWO: Would this not warrant Watches and Warnings - due to the Tropical storm force winds/gusts it is now expected to bring (I expected they would see these types of winds and was wondering why the NHC was not including this possibility in prior forecasts)?

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.

#475 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:32 pm

Notice they said it has become better organized - despite the shear

The Hurricaner · #476 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:32 pm

Im not sure where it will go now, but yesturday, the local channel 7 news meterologist said it should bring us rain sunday-monday if it should make it. I hope he's right.

#477 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:33 pm

The Hurricaner wrote:Im not sure where it will go now, but yesturday, the local channel 7 news meterologist said it should bring us rain sunday-monday if it should make it. I hope he's right.

my gut feeling is it will track well south of south Florida and stay south of cuba.

Thunder44 · #478 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest TWO: Would this not warrant Watches and Warnings - due to the Tropical storm force winds/gusts it is now expected to bring (I expected they would see these types of winds and was wondering why the NHC was not including this possibility in prior forecasts)?

No because it's not been declared a Tropical Cyclone.

HurricaneHunter914 · #479 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:37 pm

What I don't get is that this system has an LLC, has gotten better organized, has near TS force winds, and yet no upgrade. Is it because of shear?

Grease Monkey · #480 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:42 pm

I don't think it has anything to do with the shear. I think the NHC just feels that it's still not well organized enough.

INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

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