Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[CrazyC83]

Why is there a Central Pacific Hurricane Center, but no separate authority in the Eastern Pacific?

[JonathanBelles]

hmmm where would they put it...acalpulco (sp) lol...monterey...mexico city...sounds like a good poll question mods???

[SootyTern]

Are they going to keep the name Daniel? When do storms get Hawaiian names?

[WmE]

When they form in the CPac.

[wxmann_91]

Are they going to keep the name Daniel? When do storms get Hawaiian names?

Storms retain their EPAC names if they form in the EPAC and move into the CPAC. Only if a storm forms in the CPAC do they get a CPAC name.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its like last year when Adrian formed in the Epac and moved into the Atlantic except by the time it was in the Atlantic it disappated.

[Derek Ortt]

There used to be an EPHC, based out of San Fransisco, but its responsibilities were given to NHC in 1988

[Derek Ortt]

Sat estimates are unchanged at 18Z and SHIPS wa sinitialized at 80KT

In 2 days, we'll have recon out there so we will know the true intensity at that point

[Cyclenall]

Sat estimates are unchanged at 18Z and SHIPS wa sinitialized at 80KT

In 2 days, we'll have recon out there so we will know the true intensity at that point

I have a question, when a TC in the EPAC becomes a category 5, does the NHC send out recon even if it isn't going to hit land?

[Derek Ortt]

No recon for the EPAC (or Atlantic for that matter) unless land is threatened

[Cyclenall]

No recon for the EPAC (or Atlantic for that matter) unless land is threatened

I thought they would send out recon for any CAT5 hurricane just to get the records for the strength and such.

[Trugunzn]

[mtm4319]

I suppose I can understand why this is the case... but I still think it's a bit odd that a disorganized invest can get to a second thread before a major hurricane threatening Hawaii can.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats something I don't understand my self. A possible cat5 in a system that is threating a state is only on its first thread. While a invest has two?

[whereverwx]

Thats something I don't understand my self. A possible cat5 in a system that is threating a state is only on its first thread. While a invest has two?

And how many people on Storm2k live in Hawaii?

[Thunder44]

Thats something I don't understand my self. A possible cat5 in a system that is threating a state is only on its first thread. While a invest has two?

Because people pay more attention to systems in the Atlantic Basin than the Pacific. It's only been when this storm went to a Cat 4 and started looking like it could threaten Hawaii, this thread got more active.

[southerngale]

I suppose I can understand why this is the case... but I still think it's a bit odd that a disorganized invest can get to a second thread before a major hurricane threatening Hawaii can.

Well, it's a cat.1 now, not a major hurricane, and forecast to hit Hawaii as a tropical storm, and it's days away. The disorganized invest, whether it develops or not, looks to be a very heavy rain threat for Texas and Louisiana. For some areas that are already inundated, like Beaumont who had flooding just yesterday and this area has had 4 signifcant flooding events since Memorial Day, what could happen in the next couple of days, has the potential to be really bad.
In addition, we have a large number of members from Texas and Louisiana and I can't think of any from Hawaii off the top of my head, and it's only natural that people will follow very closely the storm that will have the highest potential to dramatically affect their lives. Our particular area can't take much more water, if any, and they're saying some areas could see over 10 inches out of this. If you think that could be you, then of course you want to keep up with it.

That could be why. As Daniel gets closer to Hawaii, I'm sure it will get even more attention, even though I thought it was getting quite a bit on here already. I dunno...

[CrazyC83]

There will likely be a second thread for this system by tonight...we are on 24 pages...

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPA31 PHFO 242030
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
1100 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.8 WEST OR ABOUT 905 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU.

DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME WEST NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.3 N...141.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$ FORECASTER POWELL

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPA41 PHFO 242034
TCDCP1

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
1100 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006

THE 1603 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND 1719 UTC SSMIS DATA GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION IN SPITE OF CDO SITUATION. DANIEL INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON WIDE CONSENSUS OF CI NUMBERS OF 4.5...77 KNOTS...FROM CPHC...AFWA...CIMMS ADT AND AODT. TAU THREE 12-FEET SEAS RADIUS WAS CONSTRAINED TO 120 NM WITHIN NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DISTANCE MEASUREMENTS.

DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE 1500 UTC TRACK...FAVORING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN LAST TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO UKMET THROUGH 72 HOURS BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL WITH THIS SYSTEM. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN NICELY PACKED...WITH GFS AND BAMS REPRESENTING THE LEFT AND RIGHT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. GFS WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY TREND...KEEPING DANIEL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 16.3N 141.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 143.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 144.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 146.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.8N 148.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 152.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 19.9N 156.6W 50 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 161.3W 50 KT


$$ FORECASTER POWELL