99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[wxman57]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything either, wxman57. Just a blank quickscat pass generated at 21:42Z.

I third that...it tis be completely blank...

I think it was a joke.

You would be correct!

[Air Force Met]

25 kts is a td is it not?

No. Wind had nothing to do with it. It is all about closed circulation with some organized convection throw in for good measure. It's just that 25 knots is the standard low end you usually see.

[Air Force Met]

Just to remind everyone from the 8:05pm discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

There IS a closed low.

Having a low pressure does not make a closed circulation. If the thing was to come to a full stop. Sure. Moving at 20 knots? Nope. It can have a closed isobar and not have a west wind.

Remember the system is moving.

[Brent]

Just to remind everyone from the 8:05pm discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

There IS a closed low.

No. A Low Pressure Center and an LLC are two different things. It is not a TD.

[Opal storm]

JB needs to stop misleading people into believing that this is a TD becuase it's not.He also needs to show a little more respect for the NHC.

[Air Force Met]

JB continues to say that he thinks this IS a depression. And this was the definition he gave for a depression:

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs.

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

I like JB...but he is wrong here. There is NOT organized deep convection...there is NO well defined center.

Thankfully we don't upgrade by the JB standard. Even though there have been times in the past we should have...this isn't one of them.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB needs to stop misleading people into believing that this is a TD becuase it's not.He also needs to show a little more respect for the NHC.

He isn't telling people it IS a depression, he is telling them he "believes" it's a depression. There is a big difference. He's not making you agree with him, it is just his opinion. I am not even sure if I agree with him this time, but the fact that a pro met is saying something like that is enough to get my attention.

Also, I don't think he is not showing respect for the NHC. He is a pro met who does not work for the goverment. I think he has every right to his own opinion without having to worry what the NHC might think. It was not like he sat there and bashed the NHC.

[Rainband]

I have some good advice. Listen to the Pros. They are pros for a reason. They will teach us a lot if we are willing to learn. I appreciate everything they do for S2K. Thanks Guys

Yeah, but that doesn't mean they are always right and don't make mistakes. Some of us have learned somethings too.

My point is three experts have told us what is going on and some refuse to believe it. Yes they make mistakes but far less than than most

[WindRunner]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything either, wxman57. Just a blank quickscat pass generated at 21:42Z.

I third that...it tis be completely blank...

I think it was a joke.

You would be correct!

Well that really makes me feel wonderful . . . I thought I got jokes, too

[Thunder44]

JB continues to say that he thinks this IS a depression. And this was the definition he gave for a depression:

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs.

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

I like JB...but he is wrong here. There is NOT organized deep convection...there is NO well defined center.

Thankfully we don't upgrade by the JB standard. Even though there have been times in the past we should have...this isn't one of them.

I can't count how many times TPC has issued advisories on TD or weak TS on their "poorly-defined centers" and without organized deep convection.

There is no point of making a technical arguement here, because it's known that TPC has on occasion strayed away from this exact definition. I for one will not call call this a TD yet though.

[wxmann_91]

Yes TPC has strayed but you'd expect a developing TC to have a poorly organized center. I would think just a well-defined center and strong deep convection will do for a TD, and of course over tropical waters.

This is not a TD yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes TPC has strayed but you'd expect a developing TC to have a poorly organized center. I would think just a well-defined center and strong deep convection will do for a TD, and of course over tropical waters.

This is not a TD yet.

even if not a TD right now, I think this may have been back 2 nights ago when this has convection right around the center.

[Air Force Met]

I can't count how many times TPC has issued advisories on TD or weak TS on their "poorly-defined centers" and without organized deep convection.

There is no point of making a technical arguement here, because it's known that TPC has on occasion strayed away from this exact definition. I for one will not call call this a TD yet though.

1st...that is rare...and you know it. 2nd...when they do that...there is usually organized convection somewhere...maybe just not around the center. 3rd...when they do it...it usually ALWAYS near land and they expect it to be a player. They never do it on a wave out in the central atlantic. They always wait for proof positive of a lower level circulation and proof the convection will hold together....that is a fact.

There have been numberous naked swirls out there...even in the GOM (I remember a great one that moved off the coast of Florida in the summer of 96 into the eastern GOM...moving west) that had no organized convection...and they didn't upgrade. They do fudge a bit on the well organized center part...but those are the gyre-type storms...especially found in the western GOM...that put down TS force winds and have multiple centers. You have to do something with them.

Bottom line...this doesn't even come close...and they never fudge on the rules out in the central Atlantic. If anything...they usually wait way too long.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at visible satellite shows a tight spin with the cloud mass of this system,,,This is not a weak wave we are looking at...The mid level spin looks healthy right now...Earlier yesterday those three buoys/ship reports shown that this could have had a LLC. Based also on the low clouds...Also outside of this and quickscats there is really no other way to tell.

Tonight looks to be some popcorn convection forming over this MLC....With a tight area of spin...So I would stay watch it for some development...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Opal storm]

Yes TPC has strayed but you'd expect a developing TC to have a poorly organized center. I would think just a well-defined center and strong deep convection will do for a TD, and of course over tropical waters.

This is not a TD yet.

even if not a TD right now, I think this may have been back 2 nights ago when this has convection right around the center.

I could be wrong but I thought I heard one time that tropical waves sometimes are briefly tropical depressions just after emerging off Africa,and then they weaken.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at visible satellite shows a tight spin with the cloud mass of this system,,,This is not a weak wave we are looking at...The mid level spin looks healthy right now...Earlier yesterday those three buoys/ship reports shown that this could have had a LLC. Based also on the low clouds...Also outside of this and quickscats there is really no other way to tell.

Tonight looks to be some popcorn convection forming over this MLC....With a tight area of spin...So I would stay watch it for some development...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

That is what I am seeing too. I am amazed some still refer to this as a "weak" wave or an ULL. This is clearly a low to mid level circulation and with developing convection it needs to be watched.

[TS Zack]

Emily developed then lost all her convection and looked exactly like 99L does tonight. She might have had a little better circulation, still they didn't say it was gone like some people did on this board. They kept her a system just based on continuity and Category 5 Emily popped a few days later. What I am trying to say is what the NHC says goes.

Still this board is here to debate different things but once the NHC advisory or outlook comes out thats what you got!

[Stratosphere747]

Looking at visible satellite shows a tight spin with the cloud mass of this system,,,This is not a weak wave we are looking at...The mid level spin looks healthy right now...Earlier yesterday those three buoys/ship reports shown that this could have had a LLC. Based also on the low clouds...Also outside of this and quickscats there is really no other way to tell.

Tonight looks to be some popcorn convection forming over this MLC....With a tight area of spin...So I would stay watch it for some development...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

"Looking at visible satellite" ??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't count how many times TPC has issued advisories on TD or weak TS on their "poorly-defined centers" and without organized deep convection.

There is no point of making a technical arguement here, because it's known that TPC has on occasion strayed away from this exact definition. I for one will not call call this a TD yet though.

1st...that is rare...and you know it. 2nd...when they do that...there is usually organized convection somewhere...maybe just not around the center. 3rd...when they do it...it usually ALWAYS near land and they expect it to be a player. They never do it on a wave out in the central atlantic. They always wait for proof positive of a lower level circulation and proof the convection will hold together....that is a fact.

There have been numberous naked swirls out there...even in the GOM (I remember a great one that moved off the coast of Florida in the summer of 96 into the eastern GOM...moving west) that had no organized convection...and they didn't upgrade. They do fudge a bit on the well organized center part...but those are the gyre-type storms...especially found in the western GOM...that put down TS force winds and have multiple centers. You have to do something with them.

Bottom line...this doesn't even come close...and they never fudge on the rules out in the central Atlantic. If anything...they usually wait way too long.

I agree Airforcemet...Alberto and many other Gulf systems can have there convection blow 200 miles from the LLC in be upgraded. But systems in the central Atlatnic they have to look good...I agree they do wait to long for those systems. Also whats even worst is the eastern Pacific systems...I believe its 94L at 14 north/114 west looks to have a broad LLC in convection developing over it.

[Grease Monkey]

I was looking at infrared satelite and thought I saw a little spin too. I still don't know if that means anything but it looks to be moviing WNW or NW.