Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

miamicanes177 · #461 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:50 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it it does shoot out, it means... NEXT

wasnt everyone saying next yesterday?

Extremeweatherguy · #462 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:52 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it it does shoot out, it means... NEXT
wasnt everyone saying next yesterday?

yes, even the NHC, and then it came back.

Derek Ortt · #463 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:52 pm

an outflow boundary means surface divergence and no chance at reforming a new circulation

Trugunzn · #464 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:52 pm

not looking so good

HurricaneHunter914 · #465 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:52 pm

Derek, Chris thought differently. :wink:

ConvergenceZone · #466 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:54 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I love it went people write storms off, becausewhen one finally forms they suddenly comeback.

well, the meteorologists seem to be writing this one off the most, and I respect their knowledge on thes systems. I got to hand it to them, they have been pretty consistent with not changing their opinions, so they obviously know what they are talking about. If they say it will die, then it will probably die... I admit, I still have alot to learn about the tropics.

but from what I've been reading, the conditions will be extremely brutal for this to survive.

Galvestongirl · #467 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:55 pm

101 people early and now 21

they were just using their lunch hour to check on this 8-)

Derek Ortt · #468 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:55 pm

conditions may be very favorable once this makes it to the W Carib

Extremeweatherguy · #469 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:55 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I love it went people write storms off, becausewhen one finally forms they suddenly comeback.

well, the meteorologists seem to be writing this one off the most, and I respect their knowledge on thes systems. I got to hand it to them, they have been pretty consistent with not changing their opinions, so they obviously know what they are talking about. If they say it will die, then it will probably die... I admit, I still have alot to learn about the tropics.

but from what I've been reading, the conditions will be extremely brutal for this to survive.

Just a reminder: Most mets said the wave that spawned Chris would amount to nothing and gave it a less than 15% chance of developing. A few days later Chris was a full blown TS. However, this time I think they may be right. We will probably have to wait for this to reach the central/west Caribbean for any kind of major development (though I would not be surprised to see this become a TD or weak TS before hand).

Trugunzn · #470 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:56 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:conditions may be very favorable once this makes it to the W Carib

It probally be dead by then.

#471 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:56 pm

Martinique is getting the worst weather from this right now, with airport reporting heavy rain with thunder. Next nearest airports: to south Vigie in St. Lucia's north, has been offline since 1pm reading; to north, Dominica's Melville hasn't reported since 3pm. All three of these islands have quite a few good-sized, steep mountains, which cause winds to vary significantly in different areas.
From 19:15z

southerngale · #472 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:57 pm

Trugunzn wrote:101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

miamicanes177 · #473 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:58 pm

Yeah I mean there is very little skill in forecasting intensity. NHC has said this many times. They have the best experts in the world working for them and they struggle with intensity forecasts.

Trugunzn · #474 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:58 pm

southerngale wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

Wow every1 came bac

#475 Postby **Wthrman13** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it it does shoot out, it means... NEXT

I used to think that this was true, that is, that an outflow boundary shooting outward from the core of a storm meant certain death for the storm, but I'm not so sure anymore. I suspect that in many cases, the large scale pressure gradient is robust enough and acts on long enough time scales to usually reestablish convergence into the center of a developing TC after it is temporarily weakened by the outward pressure gradient from a surging outflow boundary. Outflow boundaries in the tropics are usually weak and wash out reasonably quickly anyway. To me, it's an open question just how detrimental they are to a storm's development or maintenance.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #476 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:59 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just a reminder: Most mets said the wave that spawned Chris would amount to nothing and gave it a less than 15% chance of developing. A few days later Chris was a full blown TS. However, this time I think they may be right. We will probably have to wait for this to reach the central/west Caribbean for any kind of major development (though I would not be surprised to see this become a TD or weak TS before hand).

Just a reminder: the meteorologists were using something called "meteorological reasoning" while the rest were using their storm fetish to forecast with.

Normandy · #477 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 4:00 pm

^Being wrong is being wrong, whether its using meteorological reasoning or "storm fetish"...

Most everyone busted somehow with Chris.

x-y-no · #478 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 4:00 pm

southerngale wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

I think there's something funky with the counters on the forums ... I've seen them go way higher than the total for people viewing the site now and then.

#479 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 4:07 pm

senorpepr wrote:Just a reminder: the meteorologists were using something called "meteorological reasoning" while the rest were using their storm fetish to forecast with.

I think what SenorPepr is saying (besides that facts produce better track record in predictions than interest and desire) is, just because expert knowledge did not at a certain point in time predict the eventual outcome of one weak system (Chris), one cannot then draw conclusion that the outcome of the next system will be the opposite of consensus of expert knowledge. That is not logical.

That's like saying if today they predict rain and the sun shines, then consequently, every day they predict rain, the sun will shine. (OK, no cracks about your local forecasts!) :wink:

southerngale · #480 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 4:07 pm

x-y-no wrote:
southerngale wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

I think there's something funky with the counters on the forums ... I've seen them go way higher than the total for people viewing the site now and then.

Interesting...thanks. I haven't noticed any problems with the counters. They always seem to add up ok, unless you're talking about the counters that are in parenthesis next to each forum. If so, those are totally separate and include things like Google bots, etc. I would just look at this part on the Index page..

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Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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