Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

ROCK · #461 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:02 pm

rnbaida wrote:Does anyone know what the shear forecast is like ahead of this system?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

book mark and refresh...gives a good idea...

dwg71 · #462 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:02 pm

Lets see if it can sustain anything for 24 hours or so... it could look completely different 24 hours from now...developed or dissapated. Look at Debby vs what she looked like 12 hours ago.

#463 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:03 pm

Damar91 wrote:
jschlitz wrote::eek: Holy Crap!

Our first "holy crap" for this system!

some of those texans are real wimps arent they...a little lousy invest and we get a crap..lol.

#464 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:04 pm

Johnny wrote:
. so what if he's out at Home Depot right now getting plywood and a backup generator for Ernesto.

LOL!!! I just spit chewed up broccoli all over my monitor!

eeeweeeeooo, gross!

OK my power's been out twice today, my $100/month ADSL is C R A W L I N G, and multiple calls to Cable & Wireless (or Careless & Worthless, as we love to call them) have netted no human beings, just a menu, pick your option, hear five rings, then the menu starts again, over and over and over. (really, there's no one in the building!)

Is anyone else having trouble with SSD loops, or is it just my technology challenges here today????

Scorpion · #465 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:04 pm

dwg71 wrote:Lets see if it can sustain anything for 24 hours or so... it could look completely different 24 hours from now...developed or dissapated. Look at Debby vs what she looked like 12 hours ago.

That was due to the SAL. It was expected.

#466 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:04 pm

rnbaida wrote:Does anyone know what the shear forecast is like ahead of this system?

GFS says fairly high for the next 3 days but it does have a pocket for the system to develop.

#467 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:04 pm

Damar91 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Remember this infamous August storm!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Now you've done it!

I like to stir things up!! :wink:

Damar91 · #468 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:05 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Remember this infamous August storm!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Now you've done it!

I like to stir thinks up!!

Hopefully your avatar isn't a sign of things to come!

#469 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:07 pm

bvigal wrote:OK my power's been out twice today, my $100/month ADSL is C R A W L I N G, and multiple calls to Cable & Wireless (or Careless & Worthless, as we love to call them) have netted no human beings, just a menu, pick your option, hear five rings, then the menu starts again, over and over and over. (really, there's no one in the building!)

Is anyone else having trouble with SSD loops, or is it just my technology challenges here today????

Actually mine are going lickety-split, when normally they're slow (the fault of the Mac Java engine, I think). I was wondering if they changed the protocols or something. Try closing all your browsers or rebooting, if you haven't already - that often helps me.

dwg71 · #470 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:08 pm

Scorpion wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Lets see if it can sustain anything for 24 hours or so... it could look completely different 24 hours from now...developed or dissapated. Look at Debby vs what she looked like 12 hours ago.

That was due to the SAL. It was expected.

Really?

NHC Forecast..FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.8N 31.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.8N 33.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 36.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.3N 39.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 42.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 47.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 30.5N 53.0W 65 KT

Quote from discussion:
"THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST"

She was forecast to gradually strenghten up to hurricane strength, not weaken back to a depression, which is where it is heading IMO.

#471 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:10 pm

Posts about Debby please go and post at the Debby thread.

#472 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:10 pm

Damar91 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Remember this infamous August storm!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Now you've done it!

I like to stir thinks up!!

Hopefully your avatar isn't a sign of things to come!

Good point, didn't catch that! I can't handle another hurricane! Just got a $1000. increase in insurance last week!

#473 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's please try not to post one word or only emotcions posts as important information is posted at this thread and gets scattered or lost with those posts,thanks.

Cycloneye Moderator.

Sorry about that - it was a little tribute to HurricaneGirl. :wink:

Personally I liked the random HC's b/c they were like comic relief in a suspense movie...and kinda gave the board its unique character....but I'll abide by your request Luis.

ConvergenceZone · #474 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:17 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:That's very true Courier. Last season should have told us all that these storms have minds of their own. This invest is just that right now, an invest....until it's officially a storm, it will be very hard to predict where it will end up going. However, it is the nature of the board to start making predictions early

and Debbie is boring with it falling apart and all. I'm not even looking at the Debbie thread and doubt I will even click on any of the topics. THIS is where it's at....

ConvergenceZone · #475 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:19 pm

dwg71 wrote:Lets see if it can sustain anything for 24 hours or so... it could look completely different 24 hours from now...developed or dissapated. Look at Debby vs what she looked like 12 hours ago.

again, Debbie has had a REASON to diminish where as this does not... I think most saw it coming with Debbie.

#476 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:20 pm

Posts about Debby please go and post at the Debby thread.

#477 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:20 pm

jlauderdal wrote:some of those texans are real wimps arent they...a little lousy invest and we get a crap..lol.

My gut tells me this system won't be "wimpy" when it's done.

#478 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:21 pm

Here comes 97L per Lakes Charles, LA discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
309 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

PWATS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DO SEE SOME MODEST MID
LEVEL DRYING AS HIGH BECOMES REPOSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
BEHIND EXITING TROF. MAIN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL COME FROM SEA
BREEZE WHICH WILL MANAGE TO MOVE WELL INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. SOUTHEAST HIGH PROGGED BY GFS TO RETROGRADE MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ENTERS THE GULF.

CourierPR · #479 Postby **CourierPR** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:21 pm

Derek, your point is well taken. However, the NHC does caution the public not to get overly excited about that thin line in the middle of the cone of error. I would cite Irene in 1999 as a more recent example. It was forecast to remain well west of the Florida peninsula but we were directly impacted on the east coast. The models didn't perform well in that case.

#480 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:23 pm

I don't think FL will even be in the cone with this one

Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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