Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

TexWx · #461 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:40 pm

Stormcenter, I'm hoping that animation is way off...

#462 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:40 pm

Stormcenter wrote:My apologies if this has been posted already.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

So it's moving back to the north and east again. The first run I saw the Canadian develop 97, it had it at NOLA, then moved it down to the BoC for a few runs. Now it's back to Houston.

#463 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:41 pm

TexWx wrote:Stormcenter, I'm hoping that animation is way off...

I agree.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #464 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:49 pm

skysummit wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:My apologies if this has been posted already.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

So it's moving back to the north and east again. The first run I saw the Canadian develop 97, it had it at NOLA, then moved it down to the BoC for a few runs. Now it's back to Houston.

I'm sure it will move again.. and again.. and again.

But probably back and forth between the central and western Gulf. [sigh]

Website · #465 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:51 pm

The Gulf Heat Content is very alarming...

#466 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:54 pm

Very alarming indeed. I dont know about the rest of the gulf but buoy 42007 has been reporting water temps near 90!! That is hoooottttttt! :eek:

Stratosphere747 · #467 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:58 pm

Might be a good idea to wait until 97 is a true system, before we worry about the THC in the GOM.

temujin · #468 Postby **temujin** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:58 pm

Brent wrote:The Gulf Heat Content is very alarming...

The heat content of the entire Caribbean is alarming.

It's not really a good thing that we've not had any storms this year. It just means that there's a ton of energy in the Carib and Gulf waiting to be unleashed. It would have been good to have three or four tropical storms run around up in there and church up the water.

miamicanes177 · #469 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:04 am

00Z cmc run is much further north. 12z run brought it into central mexico...00Z brings into the TX/LA border and stronger.

144 hours 00Z
144 hours 18Z

#470 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:05 am

temujin wrote:
Brent wrote:The Gulf Heat Content is very alarming...

The heat content of the entire Caribbean is alarming.

It's not really a good thing that we've not had any storms this year. It just means that there's a ton of energy in the Carib and Gulf waiting to be unleashed. It would have been good to have three or four tropical storms run around up in there and church up the water.

Didn't help much last season.

#471 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:08 am

miamicanes177 wrote:00Z cmc run is much further north. 12z run brought it into central mexico...00Z brings into the TX/LA border and stronger.

144 hours 00Z
144 hours 18Z

About the same place Rita came in....

These model runs will keep changing... we just have to keep watching the system. Don't panic with one model run....

(heh, who am I telling? :lol:

) I'm not panicked...just cautiously watching and monitoring.

Anyway, guys, if you look in the "When will Ernesto form" thread, KFDM Meterologist posted different model runs with different outcomes... and you'll be surprised what they are....

#472 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:11 am

Looks like the party is already starting in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #473 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:33 am

I been trying to close a center. In I think I'v kind of closed one at 10.5/57.5. Which is on the southeast side of the big blow up of convection. A very strong eastly over the northern side...With a strong south and north on the west and east sides. There now looks to be some westward movement of the clouds. As this blow up blows up I expect this "LLC" to strengthen quite fast.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #474 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:35 am

I'm Using RSMAS just take away frame 179/180. You might not have to but for now yeah.

Thunder44 · #475 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:46 am

It's difficult to tell if this has a LLC without using visible imagery. From best I can tell using IR-2 imagery there still is none. I believe any upgrade would wait until during the daylight hours. I suspect TPC would more likely wait for the plane to get in there this afternoon, unless QS pass later this morning or surface obs showed a LLC.

#476 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:49 am

Is it eclipse time again?

Windspeed · #477 Postby **Windspeed** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:51 am

New model runs...

The new 00z GFDL had an enormous shift east...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

clfenwi · #478 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:52 am

skysummit wrote:Is it eclipse time again?

Yes, see http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html ...almost out of it for tonight, though.

#479 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:54 am

clfenwi wrote:
skysummit wrote:Is it eclipse time again?

Yes, see http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html ...almost out of it for tonight, though.

Thanks! I wasn't aware of that chart!

#480 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:59 am

Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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