Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Brent]

Brent, do you have a chart like that for GOM? Thanks

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[rnbaida]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

[Portastorm]

let's just hope that since it's looking better at the moment that this doesn't start the absurd cat 3,4,5 posts like we saw yeterday.....

Cat Four, Texas hit, next Friday ...

[DESTRUCTION5]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

?

[wxman57]

Brent, do you have a chart like that for GOM? Thanks

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

Yea, it's been saying that for awhile now . I think it's just because of all of the shear more than likely. It will be quite a struggle.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 60.5 280./19.0
6 12.5 61.5 303./11.4
12 13.0 62.7 292./13.2
18 13.5 64.2 287./14.9
24 13.8 65.8 280./16.2
30 14.1 66.9 285./10.7
36 14.5 67.9 291./11.0
42 14.9 69.1 291./11.5
48 15.5 69.7 311./ 8.5
54 16.3 70.3 322./10.2
60 16.8 71.1 305./ 8.8
66 17.6 72.1 308./12.1
72 18.4 73.2 307./13.7
78 19.3 73.9 321./10.8
84 19.8 74.5 308./ 7.8
90 20.5 75.4 309./10.7
96 21.0 76.4 295./10.2
102 21.5 77.2 300./ 9.6
108 22.0 77.9 307./ 7.9
114 22.4 78.8 295./ 9.7
120 23.0 79.9 298./11.5
126 23.5 80.8 297./ 9.5


12z GFDL

[superfly]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

There's 40+ kts of shear in the central caribbean right now.

[rnbaida]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

This thing is wack!!!

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 60.5 280./19.0
6 12.5 61.5 303./11.4
12 13.0 62.7 292./13.2
18 13.5 64.2 287./14.9
24 13.8 65.8 280./16.2
30 14.1 66.9 285./10.7
36 14.5 67.9 291./11.0
42 14.9 69.1 291./11.5
48 15.5 69.7 311./ 8.5
54 16.3 70.3 322./10.2
60 16.8 71.1 305./ 8.8
66 17.6 72.1 308./12.1
72 18.4 73.2 307./13.7
78 19.3 73.9 321./10.8
84 19.8 74.5 308./ 7.8
90 20.5 75.4 309./10.7
96 21.0 76.4 295./10.2
102 21.5 77.2 300./ 9.6
108 22.0 77.9 307./ 7.9
114 22.4 78.8 295./ 9.7
120 23.0 79.9 298./11.5
126 23.5 80.8 297./ 9.5


12z GFDL

[LAwxrgal]

Well, it seems like they've fixed the center at 11.9n 60.5w and it also looks like the GFDL wants to slow it down some. Any reason for that?

[ConvergenceZone]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

There's 50+ kts of shear in the eastern caribbean right now.

wow, that much???? How can this even survive at all??? I didn't think it was that high..

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry to those who think otherwise but 97L/TD still does not look impressive at all despite the increase in convection. It also looks like it will have to contend with some shear down the road.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

the GFDL model just came out and is saying that this thing will never develop.... What is wrong with this model....

There's 50+ kts of shear in the eastern caribbean right now.

He's looking at the wrong model....cycloneye just posted the correct GFDL which is the 12z.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Well, it seems like they've fixed the center at 11.9n 60.5w and it also looks like the GFDL wants to slow it down some. Any reason for that?

11.9N 60.5W is where it was at 12Z this morning...

[gatorcane]

Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.

I'm afraid you could be right - its about ready to take off.

[superfly]

wow, that much???? How can this even surive at all??? I didn't think it was that high..

I edited my post, it's actually more the central carib than eastern right. Obviously there is the possibility that the shear will decrease by the time this disturbance reaches it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here comes its upper level support 5 knots to the south of the LLC with 10 knots over it. 10 to 20 knot decreases over the system all the way to 20 north. Tutt looks to be backing slowly.

[gatorcane]

Here comes its upper level support 5 knots to the south of the LLC with 10 knots over it. 10 to 20 knot decreases over the system all the way to 20 north. Tutt looks to be backing slowly.

it better back off. This is the year that Ernesto took out the TUTT!

[storms in NC]

let's just hope that since it's looking better at the moment that this doesn't start the absurd cat 3,4,5 posts like we saw yeterday.....

Cat Four, Texas hit, next Friday ...

Why is everything going to Texas? we don't know where till they classifies it a TD first. Then we will go from there to many Island to worry about before Texas.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

18Z models:

Code: Select all

093
WHXX01 KWBC 241902
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060824  1800   060825  0600   060825  1800   060826  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.3N  62.4W   12.6N  64.6W   13.1N  66.6W   13.9N  68.4W
  BAMM    12.3N  62.4W   12.9N  65.0W   13.6N  67.2W   14.4N  69.1W
  A98E    12.3N  62.4W   12.9N  66.1W   13.3N  69.2W   13.7N  72.0W
  LBAR    12.3N  62.4W   12.8N  65.4W   13.3N  68.5W   13.9N  71.8W
  SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060826  1800   060827  1800   060828  1800   060829  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.9N  70.2W   17.2N  74.3W   18.9N  78.4W   19.1N  82.5W
  BAMM    15.5N  71.0W   17.6N  75.2W   19.2N  79.4W   19.9N  83.1W
  A98E    14.2N  74.3W   16.2N  78.5W   18.3N  82.5W   20.6N  86.5W
  LBAR    15.0N  74.9W   18.1N  80.2W   22.1N  84.5W   24.2N  79.6W
  SHIP        57KTS          71KTS          79KTS          87KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          71KTS          72KTS          80KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  62.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
  LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 =  58.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
  LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  54.6W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  155NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$