Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stratosphere747]

Skysummit...

EWG is not keeping up with the current models...

[Javlin]

The GFDL seems to drag it right across almost the entire length of Cuba, and I suspect that would weaken it before emerging into the GoM. The question is, would such a track weaken it enough to dissapate? At this very early point I am thinking NOPE. Weaken then re-intensify, methinks.

Does it weaken it enough to go extratropical though? give the fact that there'd still be ample moisture being pulled into the storm that would definately weaken it but it could re emerge into the gulf and ramp back up to TS or hurricane strength.

Nope! will remain warm core no reason to go cold core.AFM has mentioned earlier in the thread will weaken if it dragged itself across Cuba and reintensify.A few storms have done this before.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not really seeing the trend mentioned. Look at the time those models were run! Some were as late as 8am this morning! At this point, I think the Mets are a more reliable source.

Which models? Every model I've seen so far has been the latest release.

The times are on the upper right side of this image:

One thing that concerns me (as a central Gomer)...check out this model map and notice how the system is consistently north of each model run (first NOGAPS, then GFS, then GFDL)

Yea...they're all from today.

well if you consider a model that was run at 8am an accurate model to look at, then go right ahead.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Depression Five Forecast/Advisory Number 2

0300 UTC Fri Aug 25 2006


tropical depression center located near 13.2n 63.9w at 25/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.2n 63.9w at 25/0300z
at 25/0000z center was located near 13.0n 63.2w

forecast valid 25/1200z 13.7n 66.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 0sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 26/0000z 14.5n 68.9w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 25sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 26/1200z 15.3n 71.1w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 27/0000z 16.0n 73.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 17.5n 77.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 29/0000z 19.5n 81.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Outlook valid 30/0000z 22.0n 85.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.2n 63.9w

next advisory at 25/0900z

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[skysummit]

EWG...yea, that NOGAPS is the oldest one, however the others ran this evening are the latest, and the 00z tropical modes are pretty much in line with those. I'd discount that NOGAPS.

[Canelaw99]

In all honesty, if you look at the NOGAPS in that pic (the light blue line that is the only 8am model), I wouldn't trust it anyway, regardless of when it was run. I'd just relax and take the models as they come...we all know they'll shift north and south a bit over these next couple days, and there's nothing we can do about it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Skysummit...

EWG is not keeping up with the current models...

no Stratosphere actually I am keeping up with the latest models. That image posted, however, showed times as long ago as 8am and 2pm today. Either the times are dead wrong on that image, or it is showing old runs.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Well, the NHC is now expecting a hurricane out of TD5.

[6SpeedTA95]

Well, the NHC is now expecting a hurricane out of TD5.

Yes they are.

[Brent]

[rnbaida]

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 24, 2006


...Tropical Depression Five still producing showers and gusty winds
across portions of the Lesser Antilles...

at 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 63.9 west or about 390
miles...625 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph...and a west to
west-northwestward motion...with some decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could
become a tropical storm on Friday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Although the center of the depression continues to move away from
the Windward Islands...rain bands trailing the center will be
affecting the islands overnight...with heavy rains and wind gusts
to tropical storm force in squalls. All interests in the Windward
Islands...as well as in Trinidad and Tobago...should exercise
caution until winds and seas subside.
Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches can be expected in
association with the depression.
Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...13.2 N...63.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting new developments. Seems like the NHC is now forecasting a hurricane out of this.

[Dean4Storms]

Outlook valid 30/0000z 22.0n 85.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.


THey've brought the 5 day position further north to near the western tip of Cuba.

[sevenleft]

On the firefox tab for this window, the title is displayed as View topic - Tropical depression #5,Anal...

[Stratosphere747]

Skysummit...

EWG is not keeping up with the current models...

no Stratosphere actually I am keeping up with the latest models. That image posted, however, showed times as long ago as 8am and 2pm today. Either the times are dead wrong on that image, or it is showing old runs.

Then why on earth are you arguing against those that are pointing out the latest model plots that show a bit of a northward trend, and bringing up a model plot from earlier this morning, showing a westward movement?

Makes no sense.....

[wxman57]

Interesting new developments. Seems like the NHC is now forecasting a hurricane out of this.

No big surprise. Once it passes what's left of the TUTT the shear will be minimal. Could become a Cat 2-3 quite easily.

[ROCK]

Outlook valid 30/0000z 22.0n 85.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.


THey've brought the 5 day position further north to near the western tip of Cuba.

that was to be expected with the shift right with the latest model runs....

[HouTXmetro]

Gotta be a little more concerned if you Live in LA based on the latest NHC track. My next question is the storm appears to have a NW heading at the end of the NHC forecast. What might steer either more W or N or East?

[rockyman]

OK, apparently I was unclear on my post that has caused the current round of sniping...I KNOW the models are older...My point was that the system is NOT following the model tracks...the models in that graphic have all been offtrack to the south of the actual movement of the system. That's all...no need for World War III.

[Evil Jeremy]

the cone is moving northward. My gut is still telling me that SFL still needs to watch this thing!