TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

ConvergenceZone · #461 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:35 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Im in the media I can answer why CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc do this;......

RATINGS...Of course they want you to stay "tuned" with them. You think for once they are going to say shear is eating it up and may not survive? News director would fire them on the spot.

They want to keep you there pllus the Katrina talk is running wild!

hehe, you may be right, I've never seen CNN ever give so much attention to a depression way out in the sea as they are now....They never use to do this.

Website · #462 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:35 pm

#463 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:35 pm

Brent wrote:75 kt at 120 hours... 24.5 N 88.0 W

What's really funny is they slowed it down so much b/w day 4 and 5...

they don't want to make a committment. so they stall it like the NOGAPS.

:lol:

#464 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:36 pm

I know that the high in the gulf is weak but it is still a high. The TS will go around it but not to it. After looking at the new path I would have to say charley type storm. JMO

If one of the met could inlight me on the highs and TS hurricans I thank you for it. Just trying to learn. Don't hit me hard on the head

Extremeweatherguy · #465 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:37 pm

storms in NC wrote:I know that the high in the gulf is weak but it is still a high. The TS will go around it but not to it. After looking at the new path I would have to say charley type storm. JMO

If one of the met could inlight me on the highs and TS hurricans I thank you for it. Just trying to learn. Don't hit me hard on the head

a charley-like storm is highly unlikely.

DESTRUCTION5 · #466 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:37 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Brent wrote:75 kt at 120 hours... 24.5 N 88.0 W

What's really funny is they slowed it down so much b/w day 4 and 5...

they don't want to make a committment. so they stall it like the NOGAPS.

I can easily see it happening...Happens all the time

#467 Postby **CronkPSU** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:37 pm

TS Watch for Jamaica...that means we get an 8 PM update now too, right?

#468 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:37 pm

Also...just FYI...all talk of shear killing it has stopped by the NHC. Looks like shear will be done in next 12-24 hours...looking at the WV loop...looks like the high is building faster than anticipated.

Scorpion · #469 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:38 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Also...just FYI...all talk of shear killing it has stopped by the NHC. Looks like shear will be done in next 12-24 hours...looking at the WV loop...looks like the high is building faster than anticipated.

Wow... this is a change from this earlier this afternoon. Everyone was writing it off. Time to change the tune 8-)

.

Website · #470 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:38 pm

CronkPSU wrote:TS Watch for Jamaica...that means we get an 8 PM update now too, right?

Yep!

#471 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:39 pm

C'mon guys, you're going to get excited about a progged 5-day position when:

1) We can't even get a good fix on a consistent LLC? and,

2) Significant questions about the strength of the ridge over the northern Gulf at that time?

Bottom line: (ad nauseum) ... anyone from Tampico to Florida Big Bend. Keep your eyes open!

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #472 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:39 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Also...just FYI...all talk of shear killing it has stopped by the NHC. Looks like shear will be done in next 12-24 hours...looking at the WV loop...looks like the high is building faster than anticipated.

Oh. Do you have a link to that? I believe you, I just want to read it myself.

#473 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:39 pm

I keep hearing different shear forecasts. AirForceMet, what is your forecasts for the shear ahead of Ernesto, is it moving out, strengthening, or weakening?

Scorpion · #474 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:40 pm

I hope this comes to the Big Bend. It is the only area that has not been hit yet on the GOM and it is the least populated. Not to mention that means most of the oil rigs should be safe. Finally, it is within driving distance for me.

Tampa_God · #475 Postby **Tampa_God** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:41 pm

Can someone enlighten me on what the High will have in affect with Ernesto. Will it push it to a more northerly turn or push it West?

KatDaddy · #476 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:41 pm

I really thought shear take the punch out now Ernesto and weaken it dramatically. I guess its time to to change my view and get ready for the ride.

#477 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:41 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Time to lock.

Remember the rules...please do not post a post that it is time to lock.

Thanks!

Noles2006 · #478 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:41 pm

EWG - why are you rolling your eyes? It's a possibility.

ConvergenceZone · #479 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:41 pm

tallbunch wrote:i believe this storm is going to Mexico (and my record is 8 out of ten right)

temujin · #480 Postby **temujin** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:42 pm

i think i'm going to buy 500 gallons of gas tonight

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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