Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Air Force Met]

AJC 3 there is an inconsitency on your maps on the two bottom pictures it appears the convection (colder cloud tops) cuts off at 68 west while on the top two pictures the convection is expanded past 68 west. a little confusing

This is the SSMIS pass. THe top pics are just IR sat images with enhancements. THe bottome images are the microwave data that actually show where the LLC is.

Like this.


IT's very clear on that image where the LLC is (at least when you've had the training to be able to read it...).

[curtadams]

Oh, I won't take issue with ya there. Just with the opinion posed by some that the new convective blowup was directly over the center. Pretty obvious that there is good vertical continuity, just displaced (or tilted as you say) toward the SE.

Right. The shear has been obvious and significant all day - no outflow to the N or W at all and there's no way the LL and UL centers can be stacked under that. Sometimes storms can get quite strong like this - Wilma went from Cat 1 almost to Cat 4 under worse shear. I'm relieved to hear the tops have warmed a bit since the last SSD pic.

[Josephine96]

Just a question, will it still be 40 mph in an hour..?

[Brent]

Just a question, will it still be 40 mph in an hour..?

0z models initialized at 40 kt or 45 mph, so it'll probably be 45 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

45 mph...

[miamicanes177]

I wonder if the NHC will go gangbusters with their intensity forecast at 11pm. The GFDL could be right and this be 157mph just prior to landfall. I hope not. But, with shear expected to be low, and the gulf warm, it is not out of the question.

[Josephine96]

Slight upgrade.. Ok cool.. Maybe next recon mission will have it bump up further too if he strengthens..

[El Nino]

Just a question, will it still be 40 mph in an hour..?

Why not ? Storm still quite well organized with cold top clouds, convection.
I think Ernesto has a little more than than 35 knots, almost 40.

[Mac]

I realize this is still about 5 or 6 days out, but I'm getting a sick feeling in my gut. Enough so that I just sent an email to the Director of the Middle TN Medical Reserve Corps and told him that we should probably start discussing contingency plans for response capabilities.

[Josephine96]

Cat 5 just before landfall..? Please tell me that models' smokin somethin

[Trugunzn]

Getting its act together.....

[curtadams]

This is the SSMIS pass. THe top pics are just IR sat images with enhancements. THe bottome images are the microwave data that actually show where the LLC is.

Like this.


IT's very clear on that image where the LLC is (at least when you've had the training to be able to read it...).

What does that imagery depict? (in terms of clouds, temps, rain, etc. - not frequencies).

[sunny]

I realize this is still about 5 or 6 days out, but I'm getting a sick feeling in my gut. Enough so that I just sent an email to the Director of the Middle TN Medical Reserve Corps and told him that we should probably start discussing contingency plans for response capabilities.

What do you mean Mac

[Mac]

I realize this is still about 5 or 6 days out, but I'm getting a sick feeling in my gut. Enough so that I just sent an email to the Director of the Middle TN Medical Reserve Corps and told him that we should probably start discussing contingency plans for response capabilities.

What do you mean Mac

The Medical Reserve Corps is comprised of volunteers...physicians, nurse, nurse practitioners, etc., that respond to disasters. We both go to the site of disasters and process incoming, displaced disaster victims. Beccause we are in middle TN, we typically respond to these Gulf Coast problems. And I'm getting the impression that this is going to be a problem for somebody...and a potentially serious problem at that. So we need to start discussing the various contingency plans we have in place to respond to wherever this thing lands. Better to be prepared than caught with your pants down. And I just have a sick feeling that this is going to be a bad one. And I'm known for my sick feelings verifying.

[Innotech]

oh man, New Orleans mets are going to go ballistic tomorrow.
Or all of Louisiana. I also HIGHLY suggest tanking up your vehicles NOW. Because next week gas prices are going to skyrocket.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Gotta respectfully disagree with ya here. The center is still at the NW edge of the deep convection. Also, you can see some flattening of the western side of the CDO which indicates to me that the system is still fighting some mid level westerly or northwesterly shear.

And to "top" it all off...it's really just cirrus near the LLC. The deep convection is still away from it. IF you were sitting in a boat near the LLC...you would have some low clouds...but mosly dense altostratus and cirrostratus...perhaps some rain falling out of it...but no deep convection. Thats to the east.

Are you positive about this? I took the 5:00 coordinates and figure the LLc would have to be traveling 25 kts to still be outside the convection. Seems unlikely to me.

[wiggles]

why No mets?

[marcane_1973]

It will be interesting if recon finds that the center has relocated to the center of this ball of convection. On water vapor what would be that little white dot??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

[cpdaman]

calm before storm , exactly either the center is racing or it is under the deep convection (doesn't seem like it could be neither)

[Stormcenter]

Cat 5 just before landfall..? Please tell me that models' smokin somethin

It hasn't happened in 37 years in the U.S. (Camille) and probably won't next week.