TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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SouthFloridawx
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#461 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:34 am

timNms wrote:pressure at 999 but winds at 45? Seems a bit odd.


Recon will go through again after it makes it's trek eastward then will make another VDM. We could see the winds catching up.
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Noles2006
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#462 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:34 am

It's very close, but about 155 mph... not quite Cat 5... also, that's a little bit above the surface.
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Stormcenter
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#463 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:34 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:The big boys bring the front to the coast.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbgfnl_crop.gif


Is this what the GFDL is seeing now?
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#464 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:35 am

Thes maps are made every afternoon by the NWS. They usually use the GFS for these.
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#465 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:35 am

Noles2006 wrote:It's very close, but about 155 mph... not quite Cat 5... also, that's a little bit above the surface.


Yeah, 150 or 155, still too scary for me. Espically where they have it heading towards :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#466 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:35 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfdl/ ... /slp21.png

*edited by staff to make the image clickable because the image was so big
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Stormcenter
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#467 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:39 am

If this GFDL run were to actually happen(probably not) N.O. would be spared but places eastward would be under the gun.
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#468 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:39 am

Watch the movement on that model it shows an immediate NW path it is moving West right now. Shift West on next run.
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#469 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:40 am

Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....
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#470 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:41 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Watch the movement on that model it shows an immediate NW path it is moving West right now. Shift West on next run.


Yeah it (NHC forecast track)will probably shift left and right about 30 more times.
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#471 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:41 am

Air Force Met wrote:Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....


:?:
MTM4319 posted this nice graphic in the recon thread, which would indicate that the LLC is not under the most intense convection attm:
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/6176 ... on4gp7.jpg
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#472 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:42 am

Air Force Met wrote:Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....


What is your take AFM on the new GFDL model run?
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#473 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:43 am

AFM are you seeing any thing that would cause this to gain the lat. these models are showing?
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#474 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:43 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....


:?:
MTM4319 posted this nice graphic in the recon thread, which would indicate that the LLC is not under the most intense convection attm:
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/6176 ... on4gp7.jpg


That image is a few hours old. From 3:45 UTC. The eclispe must be here.
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