T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[AJC3]

The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.

The short wave being discussed would not be the mechanism for turning Ernie NNW into Cuba over the next 48-60 hours.

I know so what would be that mechanism???

There appears to be none. That's why I am discounting this run of the GFS.

[HouTXmetro]

EWG the models are doing this for a reason, don't get upset because people are noticing the trend. Personally I'm listening to the pro-mets however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east. Relax my friend.

[teal61]

The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.

I suppose the question of whether its bogus or not will be answered late tomorrow when Ernesto is not sitting over or headed toward eastern Cuba.

If it is then we can offer our sacrifices to the GFS.

[dwg71]

Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?

nope, it's just you. This storm is rapidly becoming better organized.

It is not rapidly doing anything, certainly not getting organized rapidly.

[rnbaida]

Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?

nope, it's just you. This storm is rapidly becoming better organized.

can we get some pro help on this question?

Thank you

[Brent]

Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?

nope, it's just you. This storm is rapidly becoming better organized.

can we get some pro help on this question?

Thank you

You don't have to be a pro to know that it looks better than it did about 3 hours ago.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

So, what do you guys think the winds will be at the next update?

[Praxus]

Yeah. I'm thinking cane overnight...

[28_Storms]

Anyone have a current shear map?

[jhamps10]

TWC just said that recon just found a 77 MPH wind gust in NE quad of Ernesto.

[gatorcane]

I understand there is a ridge north of Ernesto but it can't be too strong. First look at how Ernesto's flow is fanning out to the NNE. Sure that is also being caused by shear but you would not expect to see that.

Also it still looks to be like the energy is still moving generally NW........

[LSU2001]

I agree miamicanes, it is sure getting the "look" quite quickly now. I think I see outflow improving and the overall symetry (sp) getting much better.
But then again I am a quite unschooled amature. LoL
tim

[Bella]

TWC just said that recon just found a 77 MPH wind gust in NE quad of Ernesto.

I heard that, as well.

[rnbaida]

I think winds should be upgraded to 55mph but i think that they will keep them at 50mph until about 11pm.

[miamicanes177]

Anyone have a current shear map?

here ya go...updates every 3 hours
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[miamicanes177]

Anyone have a current shear map?

here ya go...updates every 3 hours
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

But you can not just keep ignoring these trends . . .

[gopherfan21]

however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east.

Even though they are shifting east based on a flawed initialization?

Alright...whatever floats your boat I guess...

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG the models are doing this for a reason, don't get upset because people are noticing the trend. Personally I'm listening to the pro-mets however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east. Relax my friend.

you do realize the models are having problems though right? First off, many of them are run based on the GFS parameters, and since the GFS is crazy right now..so are many models. Also, most models are showing a current NW motion, when in reality it is WNW, and many of them initialize the storm in the wrong location or at the wrong strength. These type of details need to be taken into account when deciding whether or not to trust the models. If all those factors looked OK and it still showed the FL turn, then I would likely have an easier time believing them.

[6SpeedTA95]

I'd like to know what the real wind speeds are. The storm is definately looking more organized. I wouldn't be surprised if sustained winds are in the 55 to 60mph vicinity.