Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[bayoubebe]

I just wonder if it can survive after going through Cuba. It is not all that big and strong now.

[pcwick]

You can use Google and similar search engines to find maps and current conditions much more quickly than cluttering up this board with such requests.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I think when recon finds the center it will no longer be a cane. It looks like land is effecting it.

[mtm4319]

Red cloud tops are no longer around the center:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn.jpg

[Aquawind]

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/s ... tive.shtml

[whereverwx]

What's the link to the Cube radar?

I had http://www.met.inf.cu but it doesn't seem to be working now.

Thanks.

[drezee]

Even though we agree with the 74W, I am thinkin it may still be below 18N.

The low level cloud movement, if symmetrical would suggest it.

Also the recon flight path, they rarely change a heading going into the center. they get a radar fix and fly into it.

1655. 1705N 07316W 03048 0151 228 022 108 052 024 03245 0000000000
1659 1710N 07327W 03043 0140 196 026 104 056 028 03230 0000000000

They are flying WNW. This would likely mean it is south of 18N and proabably near 74W as we both agree.

[curtadams]

What's the link to the Cube radar?

My link is calling up: Error en tiempo de ejecución de Microsoft JScript error '800a003e' on Firefox. On Safari it's blanked

It has worked great in the past but not for the past few days (at least - I don't go there often)

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES
if you want to check it out.

[Aquawind]

You can use Google and similar search engines to find maps and current conditions much more quickly than cluttering up this board with such requests.

Nothing wrong with that request at all..

[storms in NC]

I think when recon finds the center it will no longer be a cane. It looks like land is effecting it.

More so then I thoguht it would.But it will be back over water in no time which will help

[timeflow]

Guantanamo Link
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... guantanamo

[gatorcane]

I have to say that cone could even mean it could turn East of Florida. Wouldn't that be nice? I doubt that though.....

The mountains of Cuba need to to a number on this thing. That is the best hope FL has right now.

[rnbaida]

You can use Google and similar search engines to find maps and current conditions much more quickly than cluttering up this board with such requests.

Nothing wrong with that request at all..

Thank you, if you post an image people will give in their thoughts on the track and speed for the system.... creates more traffic and more opinions.

[johngaltfla]

I wish you had not posted that wxman. That track makes life for us in the Tampa Bay area look like hell and that track is almost entirely over 85-89 degree water all the way up our coast. For those doubters, if the core holds intact, the intensification could be rapid...

[gatorcane]

I wish you had not posted that wxman. That track makes life for us in the Tampa Bay area look like hell and that track is almost entirely over 85-89 degree water all the way up our coast. For those doubters, if the core holds intact, the intensification could be rapid...

yes if that track verifies. It's nearly the worst case scenario for Key West and Tampa...surely the track should change (I hope)....

[deltadog03]

Even though we agree with the 74W, I am thinkin it may still be below 18N.

The low level cloud movement, if symmetrical would suggest it.

Also the recon flight path, they rarely change a heading going into the center. they get a radar fix and fly into it.

1655. 1705N 07316W 03048 0151 228 022 108 052 024 03245 0000000000
1659 1710N 07327W 03043 0140 196 026 104 056 028 03230 0000000000

They are flying WNW. This would likely mean it is south of 18N and proabably near 74W as we both agree.

I agree with you...I said this earlier...I believe that its near 17.4 or 17.3 and nearing 74.5w

[bayoubebe]

rnbaida: I find for us (non-pros), the people are much more friendlier and willing to help in the section I'm going to post a link to, as opposed to asking questions that appear to be " minor" to some in this section:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=42

[curtadams]

Exactly, I cant believe another Charley like track heading toward's FL. Yesterday I left thinking FL might be in the clear. Wobble watching greatly starting Tuesday.

It has changed so much after the last 48 hours, but is this the OFFICIAL, definite track now? Are Texas, Louisiana, MS out of the woods?

Official, yes. Definite? - well, FL was out of the woods 2 days ago. Also, Stewart broke NHC standard practice by essentially throwing out previous forecasts and going only with current guidance. That makes a backup much more likely than with their standard blend of old and new.

[beachbum_al]

Is this set in stone now?

It has changed so much after the last 48 hours, but is this the OFFICIAL, definite track now?

Are Texas, Louisiana, MS out of the woods?

No, it is not set in stone.

Yes it could change tracks. That why all of of us along the Gulf Coast need to keep our eye on it. Right now it looks like FL will be the target but a lot can happen in four days. I would not panic but just keep an eye on it bayoubebe.

[Thunder44]

Even though we agree with the 74W, I am thinkin it may still be below 18N.

The low level cloud movement, if symmetrical would suggest it.

Also the recon flight path, they rarely change a heading going into the center. they get a radar fix and fly into it.

1655. 1705N 07316W 03048 0151 228 022 108 052 024 03245 0000000000
1659 1710N 07327W 03043 0140 196 026 104 056 028 03230 0000000000

They are flying WNW. This would likely mean it is south of 18N and proabably near 74W as we both agree.

It looks like it's not that far from NHC's postion at 11am. Still over water. They just past the center.