Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[HurricaneHunter914]

Lets see what will happen tonight with the combination of the warm water, diurnal maximum, low shear, and very low dry air.

[fci]

I don't like the comparisons to Katrina. Much of Palm Beach didn't see more than 40mph winds. This time it could be MUCH worse....

Katrina cannot be used for comparison purposes.

I think you misread my statement. I was not referring to Katrina's rapid intensification to a Category Five in the south-central Gulf, or to the winds recorded in Palm Beach County or elsewhere in southern Florida, but to the fact that tropical storm-force winds and heavy flooding caused extensive to severe damage in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, as well as disruption of jobs and thousands without power. Even up in Palm Beach County, where winds were below tropical storm force, it was still VERY impressive, caused loss of power to many, and resulted in extensive tree and landscape damage.

Maybe we should stop comparing everything to a major hurricane like Katrina, Rita, or Wilma (or Dennis or Emily) at peak intensity. It would help raise awareness that the destruction (and disruption) even a tropical depression can bring, many times chiefly by flooding. Don't say that depressions can't cause wind damage, either. Tropical Storm Gordon in 1994 brought winds below tropical storm force to my old area in Fort Lauderdale, yet extensive tree damage still resulted. Also, other areas in southern Florida received true tropical storm-force sustained winds anyway, like Virginia Key. Besides, the flooding, in addition, was TREMENDOUS. Just my two cents based on expert opinion, a blend of many opinions, studies, facts, other factors, and personal experience.

Really, I also think we should stop saying "it could have been worse". Of course it can always get worse. We can go round and round about doomsday scenarios and never accomplish anything at truly educating people about true preparedness, knowledge, and realizing the destruction even depressions and tropical waves and Category One/Category Two hurricanes can bring. Not everything is a Katrina or Rita (Gulf coast versions), so why keep doing those comparisons? In the long run, only complacency is restored and educating the public about preparedness and the destruction even waves, depressions, and non-major (per Saffir-Simpson Scale) hurricanes can bring. Let's be reasonable here.

Not sure I can concur that Katrina caused any damage in Palm Beach County. Don't know of power outages beyond very isolated ones nor a lot of landscape damage

None that I know of.....

But your point is well taken. Any storm with winds 50-70 and torrential rains can cause damage but nothing like what we had in prior Hurricanes.

Do need to put it in perspective.

[Damar91]

Lets see what will happen tonight with the combination of the warm water, diurnal maximum, low shear, and very low dry air.

Well put! It has it's best opportunity ahead of it.

[curtadams]

Is it even moving? This is only a 4 hour loop, but I can't see any movement at all, while everything else around it moves right along.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

IR is deceptive. Ernesto's core, such as it is, hasn't been generating deep convection all day and so he's been invisible on IR. For that matter, he's been invisible on everything until a few hours ago. The big impressive blob at the tip of Cuba is peripheral. Ernie, if he still exists, is near the blob about 1/3 down the way on the N Cuba coast which just popped up a speck of red. The situation is clearer on RGB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html.

[Blown Away]

Some nice convection just north of the center flaring up. I agree though, tonight is Ernesto's time to "put up" or "shut up"!

I agree!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[HurricaneJim]

Really fascinating, there was almost no convection to the west and now this "Nuclear" plume over land. Neat storm, throwing all sorts of curve balls. (but the TS Chris "Samurai Separation" was the coolest)


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[gtsmith]

My condo does not have shutters, but it faces west with only really two small windows...my patio has screens as a barrier to the interior sliding glass doors. They survived Wilma, Jeanne and Francis with no damage, so I feel pretty ok with this storm. I'll be at my inlaws and they have accordian style. I'll be pulling those shut tomorrow morning.

As far as schools, I just heard that Palm Beach Co and St Lucie Cnty are closed Tues and Wed. martin cty will have a half day tomorrow and closed on wed

Last I heard Palm Beach Co schools are closed on Tuesday and will evaluate wednesday's status on Tuesday afternoon.

I think you're right...I stand corrected...errr sit as it were I'm on my couch.

[SouthFloridawx]

Say goodnight to Ernesto.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Goodnight as in "He's gone?"

[kevin]

He's becoming harder to see on the visible sat, leaving us with the woefully hard to read IR.

[Damar91]

Hopefully next time we see him, he's not a monster! Good night, Ernesto. May all your dreams be filled with shear and dry air!

[Evil Jeremy]

Goodnight as in "He's gone?"

goodnight as in he cant be seen on the visible anymore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[snip]...Which should lift the cyclone northward across the coastline.

hey Matt-would you claziryf please? Which coastline?

Entering south of Miami turning northward...Close to the nhc track. But we will need to watch if that Ridge holds...If it doe's then this could go through the keys. Models are still leaning between the east coast tracker in something going through the keys.

[fci]

How many are putting up shutters??

I'm getting the house ready, and putting up the harder 2nd story today... if this is looking really bad tomorrow then i'll finish the rest at 7am when I have a group of people coming to help

It sadly takes about 20 hours with 4 people working non stop to put up my whole houses shutters. Way too many windows and expanses, great views though

I have a feeling this will either be really weak tomorrow, or moving toward being a cat2. Depending on what we see in the morning, i'll decide what i'm going to do. Bought all my new chains and bars for my chainsaw today.

OK, flame away folks!!!

Unless I see this as more than a 50-60 MPH issue, I will not be putting up my shutters.

I'll also use my neighborhood as a guide.
If most put them up, I will but I suspect that few will.

Takes about 4-5 hours to do it so I can wait until about 2 PM tomorrow to see if the track is verfying that he is actually coming here and the intensity anticipated.

Quite honestly 50-60 is not a whole lot worse than when thuderstorms come from the west in the late afternoon and evening.

I know that I am not giving the "politically correct" answer here but I am being honest.

[hurricanedude]

no...goodnight as in vis sat about gone

[Blown Away]

It could be a hurricane if it takes a David track that would give it more time over the Gulfstream and skirt the Eastern most part of Florida, WPB - Ft. Pierce!

[gtsmith]

Quite honestly 50-60 is not a whole lot worse than when thuderstorms come from the west in the late afternoon and evening.

got to agree with that statement...they can be nasty little storms. oh..Max Mayfield is on channel 25 live now

[gatorcane]

big thunderstorms now west of the center - here is where Ernesto starts to really get its act together and it will be dark out there all night while it is happening....

[tgenius]

Diurnal Max should be interesting tonight... what are the sat imagery eclipse times tonight?

[gtsmith]

Max didn't say much beyond the fact that the hurricane watches remain up because there is a chance of it developing to cat 1 strength. He did say that he expects some strengthening to strong TS stage...basically reiterated the official discussion.