TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[Brent]

I'd estimate a 90% chance Ernesto will be a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall. NHC better issue hurricane warnings on their next advisory. Ernesto is blowing up very rapidly. Excellent outlfow, overshooting tops over the center. Pressure at landfall 985mb or lower.

Agreed. I fully expect a hurricane now. Fortunately though he only has 12-18 hours.

[storms in NC]

Not only are sats looking really impressive people need to start thinking about affects other than wind.At the very least a TON of rain is coming when this storm starts to really interact with the stalled front along with the fact that if you read the SPC severe weather threat most of eastern NC will be in the east side and have the highest threat of tornadoes and this is going to be a big problem i think with a front near by the shear should be enhanced even more!

I am going to be on the east side of the storm. I was just thinking why they are not going to let school out early. I am in Duplin county about 15-20 miles south east of Kenansville

[Stormavoider]

I'd estimate a 90% chance Ernesto will be a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall. NHC better issue hurricane warnings on their next advisory. Ernesto is blowing up very rapidly. Excellent outlfow, overshooting tops over the center. Pressure at landfall 985mb or lower.

Thanks 57,
What's your take on track certainty?

[jimvb]

I compared the tracks of Bertha(1996) and Floyd. Wunderground makes that easy, since they have tracks of all the storms back into the 1800s and they put them all in exactly the same grid. I added the two graphics for Bertha and Floyd using Paint Shop Pro and found that they had almost exactly the same tracks, both in position and intensity, at least as far as the Carolinas were concerned.

However, the effects on us here in Central Virginia were markedly different. Bertha just gave us a few gusts of 20 mph and some rain, and the next morning the weather was good for our yearly trip to Virginia Tech. Floyd gave us howling winds, maybe 30-40 mph and higher gusts. It blew down a few trees and I could see the wind making the trees lean. The official records for Richmond show a maximum wind speed of about 30 mph for Bertha and 50 mph for Floyd. I am not too sure if I would have wanted to drive to Virginia Tech that day. This despite their nearly identical tracks. If anything, Bertha's center came closer to us.

Ernesto is starting from a more westerly point but it looks now like its track will be nearly identical to Bertha and Floyd; this would require it to attain hurricane strength before landfall.

Why did Bertha and Floyd affect us differently, and which one is Ernesto going to be more like?

[Derek Ortt]

I think the question is cat 1 or cat 2

The NOAA has me a little concerned as they are reporting 42KT at the surface from SFMR well south of the center. Would not be surprised to have a 60KT TS at the present time

[carve]

Even a cat 1 could be bad if people are not prepared.....and it looks to be getting stronger

[wxman57]

I'd estimate a 90% chance Ernesto will be a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall. NHC better issue hurricane warnings on their next advisory. Ernesto is blowing up very rapidly. Excellent outlfow, overshooting tops over the center. Pressure at landfall 985mb or lower.

Thanks 57,
What's your take on track certainty?

NHC track looks fine, they just gave up on hurricane strength too soon.

[carve]

what are the chances this becomes a cat 2 in 12 hours?

[carve]

Does it have enough time

[Derek Ortt]

chances are small but probably hgiher than this remaining as a TS

[storms in NC]

It has a small chance with 12 hours. At this time any thing can happen

[shaggy]

another thing people need to start thinking about is forward speed if this obtains cat 1 or higher(doubtful) the forward speed could carry these winds further inland along with the gradient from the high it could be worse than some poeple are giving ole ernie credit for lots of things with this storm can make a world of difference for eastern SC/NC

[westmoon]

Looks to be slowing a little to me, can't wait for the 11am update.

[HurricaneBelle]

From the 10AM discussion from the Newport/Morehead City NWS office:

UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING UPCOMING
CONFERENCE CALL AND WILL MAKE CHANGES FOLLOWING THE CALL.

I guess the call is going on now, and I'm thinking they're anticipating hurricane warnings.

[Derek Ortt]

also looks to have turned to the NE, which would give it more time over the water

[westmoon]

Latest GFDL model run looks to have shifted back east.

[Wannabewxman79]

Turned NE? Does that mean no landfall here near Wilmington now?

[jpigott]

Any chance this could slide as far east as the outer banks, or is Cape Fear about as east as Ernesto is going to get

[seahawkjd]

Yeah I was seeing that NE jog and on the radar and the vortex fixes and was wondering. I guess at this point any jog east keeps it over the water longer and more time to strengthen.

[Regit]

also looks to have turned to the NE, which would give it more time over the water

If it's going true NE, it might not even hit land.

Nothing would surprise me.