TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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milfordmawx
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#461 Postby milfordmawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:22 pm

New England http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy.php
and RI alone http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/RIbuoy.php
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Bane
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#462 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:23 pm

sorry, the storm has not missed wilmington
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#463 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:23 pm

ri is rapid intensification
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nequad
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#464 Postby nequad » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:26 pm

well currently on the outer banks we have sustained winds of 30MPH...with gusts to 40MPH and driving rain.
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GaryOBX
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#465 Postby GaryOBX » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:27 pm

Where are you, nequad? I'm in Kill Devil Hills.
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Bella
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#466 Postby Bella » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:29 pm

Thank you so much, Milford! That's fantastic!

And, Bane, my friend...RI will always be Rhode Island to me!

....now, back on topic....

Be safe everyone in E's path!!!
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marcane_1973
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#467 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:34 pm

Looks like Morehead City and the Jacksonville areas will get the worst area of the storm first. The strongest winds are out over the ocean to the southeast of the storm. Wilmington will get clipped by the weaker side of the storm but it still will be a little rough.
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Trugunzn
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#468 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:36 pm

trying its best to develope eye. I thnik it will have just enough time too:

Image

Landfall between 2-3 hours
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SouthFloridawx
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#469 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:38 pm

Ernesto is looking very good on radar before landfall.

Image
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Three Blind Mice
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#470 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:38 pm

Looks like Topsail Island will get the right hook tonight.....

Won't take much for there to be damage there.
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#471 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:38 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ernesto is looking very good on radar before landfall.

Image


whats the red circle, cant be the center.
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nequad
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#472 Postby nequad » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:39 pm

Kill Devil Hills as well Gary
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Nate-Gillson
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#473 Postby Nate-Gillson » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:40 pm

That red circle is a mesocylcone embeded in the western eyewall
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Stormavoider
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#474 Postby Stormavoider » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:41 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ernesto is looking very good on radar before landfall.

Image

What is the red donut on the SC/NC coast?
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Trugunzn
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#475 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:42 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Ernesto is looking very good on radar before landfall.

Image

What is the red donut on the SC/NC coast?


look up above your post
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tolakram
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#476 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:43 pm

http://tinyurl.com/myauc

Is that an eye opening up in the last few frames, or just a wobble?
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFloridawx
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#477 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:43 pm

Ernesto looks like he was in the process of trying to close off an eyewall to me. You can see the larger ring on the outside to the north looking very buzzsaw like. You can see inner core developing a new line wrapping around the center from the north to the south and the outer ring around it looking very good. Ernesto is looking exteremly organized and it's a good thing he didn't have much more time over the warm gulfstream...

Conditions in North Carolina should continue to deteriorate in the next couple of hours as the core of ernesto begins to make its way on shore.
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whereverwx
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#478 Postby whereverwx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:43 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ernesto is looking very good on radar before landfall.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/9363/eut8.png

Yeah, he is.

Image
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Trugunzn
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#479 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:44 pm

tolakram wrote:http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=15&frame=0&delay=25&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LTX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999

Sorry for the long link.

Is that an eye opening up in the last few frames, or just a wobble?


its a eye imo
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rnbaida

#480 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:45 pm

actually he is looking more ragged and starting to loose strength. The center is starting to fill up with storms which means it is loosing wind speed.
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