SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

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skysummit
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#461 Postby skysummit » Wed May 09, 2007 2:38 pm

Javlin wrote:
skysummit wrote:
B'hamBlazer wrote:To me, it almost looks like the center may be reforming to the east... or are my eyes deceiving me?


That looks like the upper center to me. It kind of looks like the lower center and upper center have seperated.


Sky if you go to the floater and install the forcast points it appears that is the center the NHC is using for tracking,so all seems to be inline with there line of thinking.I think that the system is even transitioning even further Damar,hey I might be wrong but to me with the center filling in it is looking more like a real tropical system.Have to see how it looks later this evening.Kevin

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


So that little spin off that looks to be at the lower level, and what looks to be the center on radar, is not really the the center the NHC is tracking. Their center, according to satellite, and their forecast points, hasn't even budged.
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#462 Postby Javlin » Wed May 09, 2007 2:43 pm

Thats the way I take it Sky maybe what we are seeing if it really is a vortice is like one of those little eddy's that get spit out from time to time in weaker systems.Kevin
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#463 Postby vbhoutex » Wed May 09, 2007 2:49 pm

That "eye" to the west of the center of circulation looks like either a collapsing tstorm or an outflow boundary from one. I think the COC is still pretty much intact where it was. I do have to agree that it does appear that the center of the low may be beginning to fill in. It may be possible this could go tropical, though I am not holding my breath till it does. :lol:
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#464 Postby Damar91 » Wed May 09, 2007 2:52 pm

I was just going to say after looking at the latest satellite, it seems that the center has reformed to the east. At least from the way the banding in the center is shaping up. I don't know, I'm far from an expert and I know ones eyes can play tricks when looking at these systems.....
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#465 Postby B'hamBlazer » Wed May 09, 2007 2:58 pm

It also appears to be developing a much tighter circulation than the very broad one that was present before. It seems to have certainly weakened earlier in the day (at least by looking at radar), but it appears to have maybe been some effort to reorganize maybe.
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#466 Postby Patrick99 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:11 pm

It looks like a real TS. A weak one, but that's not the point.
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#467 Postby B'hamBlazer » Wed May 09, 2007 3:14 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It looks like a real TS. A weak one, but that's not the point.


I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen. In fact, from what I've seen, alot of meterologists backed off from saying this is a cold-core system. At some point earlier today, it could neither be classified as warm or cold, but I anticipate it becoming increasingly tropical in nature over the next 12-24hrs.
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#468 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed May 09, 2007 3:18 pm

i didnt see this posted about tomorrow's Recon:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 09 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z MAY 2007
TSPOD NUMBER.....07-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 10/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A ANDREA
C. 10/0930Z
D. 30.2N 80.6W
E. 10/1100Z TO 10/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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#469 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2007 3:19 pm

fact789 wrote:i didnt see this posted about tomorrow's Recon:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 09 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z MAY 2007
TSPOD NUMBER.....07-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 10/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A ANDREA
C. 10/0930Z
D. 30.2N 80.6W
E. 10/1100Z TO 10/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


That is posted in the recon thread.
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#470 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 09, 2007 3:22 pm

The water temps are near 80 degrees...
over a narrow area of the gulf stream,
and 77-79 over a larger area
if Andrea can reorganize and develop
a smaller center of circulation
some moderate intensification may take
place...as it is forecasted to be over
water for a couple of days
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#471 Postby Thunder44 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:22 pm

The storm looks disorganzied this afternoon. On visible imagery there seem to be multiple low or mid-level swirls rotating around a broader surface circulation.
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#472 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed May 09, 2007 3:22 pm

Here is my thoughts, this system looks very very good low level feature. Strong LLC, really two LLC. A stronger one seems to have formed slightly to the north and east of the old smaller one, which the smaller one is being pulled around it. I can tell that the new one is the main one by the fact that the smaller one is starting to move east around it. Also convection is firing to its north and east. This system is becoming more tropical looking. At least were I sit.

With this being side, it increases the chances of this system go northwestward or northward like the northern Hurricane models have been painting. If it stays in the Gulf stream, the fuel will be some what more then what the nhc track has it going into.

We will see.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html
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#473 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed May 09, 2007 3:26 pm

Currently, Andrea is drifting under weak steering currents. I must agree with the previous posters with respect to the LLC relocation. Note the well-defined meso signature and convection further east. In addition, a new low-level circulation is organizing near 32N and 79W. Take a closer view at this loop. In addition, note the slight hints of west-southwest movement.

Here is a graphic of the synoptic setup. It clearly indicates that the LLC has relocated further east. The latest frame also supports the hypothesis of west-southwest motion.

Image
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#474 Postby skysummit » Wed May 09, 2007 3:29 pm

LOL....every single option was checked. :)
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#475 Postby Damar91 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:34 pm

Albeit a weak and disorganized one, Andrea is looking more and more like a tropical than subtropical system. Heck, it looks better than Alberto ever did....... :roll:
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#476 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:44 pm

Ah, we're playing "where's the center" again. I do see a mid-level swirl closer to 31N/79.3W. I see no evidence of any LLC near 32N/79W. All surface reports have moderate easterly winds there in the outer band of squalls. The LLC is very hard to find on satellite, probably west of the mid-level center somewhere but it's very broad and disorganized. I think I see it around 30.9N/80W, but there appear to be several lsmall eddies rotating around a broader center. Buoy reports and ships around Andrea are generally reporting 20-30 kt winds, down from this morning. Still an occasional 35 kt wind report from some reporting station near 31.37N/80.54W. Not sure if it's a buoy or a ship. A buoy right next to that report has 25kts, though, so the 35kt wind could be a bad report. There MIGHT be a small patch of 35 kt winds 100nm ENE of the center, but no reports there.

Most likely, Andrea will drift around for 2-3 days, probably not doing too much. Should gradually spin down as the upper low weakens and vertical lift diminishes. Hopefully, a little rain will fall inland across the SE US, but wind won't be a problem. By Sunday, an upper-level trof moving eastward across the northern Gulf should kick what's left of Andrea out to the east.
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#477 Postby Damar91 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, we're playing "where's the center" again. I do see a mid-level swirl closer to 31N/79.3W. I see no evidence of any LLC near 32N/79W. All surface reports have moderate easterly winds there in the outer band of squalls. The LLC is very hard to find on satellite, probably west of the mid-level center somewhere but it's very broad and disorganized. I think I see it around 30.9N/80W, but there appear to be several lsmall eddies rotating around a broader center. Buoy reports and ships around Andrea are generally reporting 20-30 kt winds, down from this morning. Still an occasional 35 kt wind report from some reporting station near 31.37N/80.54W. Not sure if it's a buoy or a ship. A buoy right next to that report has 25kts, though, so the 35kt wind could be a bad report. There MIGHT be a small patch of 35 kt winds 100nm ENE of the center, but no reports there.

Most likely, Andrea will drift around for 2-3 days, probably not doing too much. Should gradually spin down as the upper low weakens and vertical lift diminishes. Hopefully, a little rain will fall inland across the SE US, but wind won't be a problem. By Sunday, an upper-level trof moving eastward across the northern Gulf should kick what's left of Andrea out to the east.


Yeah, it's fun. Hey, tropically speaking, what else is there to talk about in May? :lol:
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#478 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:49 pm

It's also starting to remind me of her predecessor...hopefully she doesn't stall out...
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#479 Postby punkyg » Wed May 09, 2007 3:49 pm

Who thinks it will get better organized?
i think the winds will get to 50 mph before it makes landfall. just tell me yes or no :yesno:
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#480 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 09, 2007 3:50 pm

punkyg wrote:Who thinks it will get better organized?
i think the winds will get to 50 mph before it makes landfall. just tell me yes or no :yesno:


It may not even make landfall. I'm thinking it will hug the coastline then get pushed away...
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