Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[cycloneye]

whens this thread end..

Very soon,one page left.25 pages is the limit.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What does everyone think of the chances of this system
once it reaches the Caribbean??

[Aric Dunn]

whens this thread end..

Very soon,one page left.25 pages is the limit.

ok

[hurricanefloyd5]

I never said they (NHC) would do anything tonight im just stating that even if it is TD#3 now then the first adv. would come out at 5 AM in the AM thats all im saying!!!!!!!!!!

If the NHC declared it a depression now, then they would issue a track very shortly afterwards, not at 5am EDT. But they're not doing anything overnight. Just be patient, you'll get your share of hurricanes before the season ends. Chantal may have to wait for another 2-4 weeks.

And again in my last post i said "even if" there is that word IF thats what I said in my last post ty!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Chill...everyone calm down...

In any case...I am thinking some potential development
over the Caribbean...Once 96L reaches the Caribbean that is

[Aric Dunn]

i think people are tired.. ! lol


i dont even want to speculate on what will happen with it.. because there are to many if's
if dry air
if shear
if it can hold together till then
if
if
if
......

[miamicanes177]

It'll be interesting to see what we wakeup to. New burst forming right before lights out like Aric Dunn said above.

[Aric Dunn]

It'll be interesting to see what we wakeup to. New burst forming right before lights out like Aric Dunn said above.

yeah its looking like its starting... will see her the next few frames if that poofs out or not.. if the deep orange continue ..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is a very difficult forecast...so many variables
dry air being the variable that could lead to
dramatic changes in the current situation- not that
I think it will...I am not forecasting that it will
but nevertheless it is worth mentioning in order
to point out that this is a very difficult forecast
scenario...early season forecasts are many times
difficult calls...

[cycloneye]

This is the intensity model graphic.Look how ship goes up in intensity in the 00:00z run.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Stratosphere747]

The key becomes, and what 57 was trying to point out, will be the future conditions down the road.

They don't call it the "Graveyard" for nothing...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

At this time of year dry air in the Caribbean and central atlantic
are strong inhibiting factors...so we'll see what happens
with 96L

[hurricanefloyd5]

im tired,aric's tired im sure and everyone up on this board now is tired im sure and everyone is snapping at everyone else due to the tiredness so im going to watch 96Las of now for now!!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

The key becomes, and what 57 was trying to point out, will be the future conditions down the road.

They don't call it the "Graveyard" for nothing...

you have to remember the key to that..
if it forms before the islands then it ok .. but if it tries to form while going thru .. it then its the graveyard

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the professional meteorologists say theres too much
dry air then I guess 96L is toast but

I have a question:
Is there any way 96L could be a depression
today or now?

I ask this because earlier it really looked like
a full blown depression or minimal storm

[Aric Dunn]

If the professional meteorologists say theres too much
dry air then I guess 96L is toast but

I have a question:
Is there any way 96L could be a depression
today or now?

I ask this because earlier it really looked like
a full blown depression or minimal storm

umm.. just because the mets says its toast does not always mean that... things change..
yeah they know more and reduce the probability that a forecast will be wrong.. but thats the key its a probability!
and i guess by definition.. a TD is a TC with winds of 30kt or less. if it has a closed low and winds of 30kts or less then i guess it could be lol ..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

well I still think it might have been a
depression or minimal tropical storm
earlier this afternoon
I don't understand how it wasnt
Someone please explain
thank you

[miamicanes177]

im tired,aric's tired im sure and everyone up on this board now is tired im sure and everyone is snapping at everyone else due to the tiredness so im going to watch 96Las of now for now!!!!!!!!!!

yeah that is true. I'm THIS close to climbing in bed.

[Aric Dunn]

well I still think it might have been a
depression or minimal tropical storm
earlier this afternoon
I don't understand how it wasnt
Someone please explain
thank you

to put it simply ... its up to the NHC...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

well I still think it might have been a
depression or minimal tropical storm
earlier this afternoon
I don't understand how it wasnt
Someone please explain
thank you

to put it simply ... its up to the NHC...

I do trust the NHC more than I trust myself.

I know that LOL but I want to know why
the meteorological reason...Because
I don't know something here...