Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[NDG]

Well, tomorrow if there's any trace of a circulation left will be passing close through Trinidad and Tobago, we'll see what kind of pressure and wind direction they report.

[Air Force Met]

i still see small but still defined LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I don't think there is a defined LLC with this system. It is open. There is a vorticity spin...but no closed circulation. If you follow the low level clouds...there aren't any that are headed east....which is what you need for a LLC.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1014 MB
LOW REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOWS A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW.

This is the 8 PM EDT discussion from TPC.Only a swirl of low clouds.

[NDG]

But the Low continues to be present against their forecast, what's going to make the wave go completely open if it has not done so far under such dry conditions, it sure can't get any worst than what it was, windshear does not seem to be as bad as some models were indicating it to be.

[jaxfladude]

Invest 96L is dead Jim.

[Toadstool]

Invest 96L is dead Jim.

And Bones should definitely know... he's in the same condition!

[jaxfladude]

Invest 96L is dead Jim.

And Bones should definitely know... he's in the same condition!

Dead is dead....next **L Invest please....

[Thunder44]

This is an interesting TWO :

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS MOVING
W AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/RRG

[Kerry04]

Is thats 96L??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The invest might regenerate as the next number, if it did regenerate, since the low is no longer listed on the surface map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

There has been no position update since yesterday at 18Z:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest

However, I'm not sure if it would get a new number or keep the same number, if it were to regenerate. Since they have for a bit called it a wave, it might just get the next number unless they found something that indicated it has kept the same low pressure center.

It was still listed as a wave in the 5:30 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.

On the edge of Floater 1:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
Hoping they move it soon.

Looking for west winds...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/TT_cc.html
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... and+Tobago

Martinique radar, which isn't the greatest...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
The area is even a bit south for that radar.

And for later if it makes it further west, Netherlands Antilles and Aruba:
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp

--------------

Some visible imagery:

Since there has not been a position update, NRL's:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Visible imagery of what was 96L has it leaving the edge:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

This is a floater, so check the main site if the imagery changes...
Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Main: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rms ... PICAL.html

Loop: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... movie.html
Slightly more detailed static image: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ecaribvis.html
Main: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... llite.html

[Aquawind]

Is thats 96L??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

It's the blob near South America and entering the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

If you're considering the likely track of this wave and chances of development, then I have a couple of suggestions for where to look. Penn State's Tropics E-wall is a great resource (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropmain.html). One of the maps to look at is steering level winds. Since this is just a wave, it's best to use the low-level steering maps. Here's the 850-700mb map (5000-10,000 ft):

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSTEERS/over_18.gif

Note that all the wind markers have their stems pointing nearly due west, indicating that 96L will skirt the coast of S. America and run into Nicaragua. This is precisely what every single wave ahead of it has done over the past month, and it looks like 96L will do the same. There is nothing to indicate it will track WNW or NW toward the NW Caribbean. The flow pattern hasn't changed down there since the last wave moved through.

But will it regenerate/develop? There are three main factors that say no - dry air, wind shear, and proximity to land. There is still plenty of dry air for the wave to contend with, but wind shear and proximity to land are the more significant factors. Also on the E-wall are model projections with wind shear in the lower left panel. Here's the ECMWF projection for tomorrow afternoon (00Z Sunday) as the wave is in the SE Caribbean:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/f48.gif

See that bright red directly in its path? That's wind shear of 20-30 kts. I think this is primarily low-level speed shear. That's pretty high for tropical development (20-30 kts), and it extends all the way west along the projected path to Nicaragua. A slight drop-off by Nicaragua before it moves ashore, though.

Finally, there's proximity to land. Do you see the tropical wave just ahead of 96L? It's crossing Panama now with all storms in the East Pac. Before that, the wave was over land in S. America. 96L will be at least partly over land as it crosses the extreme southern Caribbean - not good for development.

So it appears that chances of this wave developing into a TD/TS are gone. You can continue to watch it, as there's not much else out there to watch, but don't get your hopes up too much. I think it'll be another 2-3 weeks before we see the real Chantal forming. Once that happens, it'll be fast and furious through August and September.

[skysummit]

Ok, I'll join the dead bandwagon now...now that it seems virtually impossible for anything to happen with 96L, or its remnants. It was fun to watch though! She put up a helluva fight.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Skysummit, she put up a helluva fight, and is in fact still fighting. I was the one must "bullish" on this system though. I even thought that we could see a tropical storm in the E Carribean. I knew that conditions in the tropics were not likely to substantially improve until at least mid July, but 96L gave me cause to hope that this season, projected to be above average, might be starting to unfold. I still think that we will see that above average season, but those who might differ could certainly make a good case for their side.

[NDG]

I think it'll be another 2-3 weeks before we see the real Chantal forming. Once that happens, it'll be fast and furious through August and September.

Are you still thinking something similar to 2004.

Getting back to 96L or former 96L, yes, it appears that the weak Low center or vorticity has finally dissipated out of the tropical wave, convection refired very early this morning but relative shear took care of that.

[wxman57]

Are you still thinking something similar to 2004.

Getting back to 96L or former 96L, yes, it appears that the weak Low center or vorticity has finally dissipated out of the tropical wave, convection refired very early this morning but relative shear took care of that.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, waves tracking very far south across the Caribbean in June/July, like in 2004. Then the season exploded. Watch out FL through the Carolinas in 2007. And if that trof remains stuck over Texas in August/September, then anything coming into the Gulf may turn north toward LA/MS.

[beachbum_al]

Are you still thinking something similar to 2004.

Getting back to 96L or former 96L, yes, it appears that the weak Low center or vorticity has finally dissipated out of the tropical wave, convection refired very early this morning but relative shear took care of that.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, waves tracking very far south across the Caribbean in June/July, like in 2004. Then the season exploded. Watch out FL through the Carolinas in 2007. And if that trof remains stuck over Texas in August/September, then anything coming into the Gulf may turn north toward LA/MS.

I hope you are wrong on that but I have a strange sickening feeling that you are right on the money for the Gulf Coast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Are you still thinking something similar to 2004.

Getting back to 96L or former 96L, yes, it appears that the weak Low center or vorticity has finally dissipated out of the tropical wave, convection refired very early this morning but relative shear took care of that.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, waves tracking very far south across the Caribbean in June/July, like in 2004. Then the season exploded. Watch out FL through the Carolinas in 2007. And if that trof remains stuck over Texas in August/September, then anything coming into the Gulf may turn north toward LA/MS.

I'm going to be watching the tropics very very very closely
this August and September...

[miamicanes177]

So it appears that chances of this wave developing into a TD/TS are gone. You can continue to watch it, as there's not much else out there to watch, but don't get your hopes up too much. I think it'll be another 2-3 weeks before we see the real Chantal forming. Once that happens, it'll be fast and furious through August and September.

I think what has people concerned is the fact the past 4 days we've had numerous posts declaring it is dead. However, each day we wakeup and find that in fact there is still persistent convection keeping it alive. I think we have to continue to watch it just in case. Forecasting the tropics is one of the most difficult jobs in the world.

[wxman57]

I think what has people concerned is the fact the past 4 days we've had numerous posts declaring it is dead. However, each day we wakeup and find that in fact there is still persistent convection keeping it alive. I think we have to continue to watch it just in case. Forecasting the tropics is one of the most difficult jobs in the world.

Dead can mean several things. It can mean dead in that its chances for development are very low, or dead in that there are no showers left with the wave (no convection). So you're correct in that it's not dead as in no convection, but it's dead as far as its chances for development. It reached the first stage of "dead" a few days ago. The next stage will likely come soon (no convection).