Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly
Anyone has comments on jeff masters thinking....
0 likes
- skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly
windstorm99 wrote:Anyone has comments on jeff masters thinking....
Nah....he's basically just stating the obvious. This way his post is correct no matter what happens.
0 likes
- astrosbaseball22
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 122
- Age: 32
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:48 pm
- Contact:
Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly
Aric Dunn wrote:not sure if anyone posted this
but its a TCFA
they wanna take it a bit south of west
0 likes
- marcane_1973
- Category 1
- Posts: 330
- Age: 51
- Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
- Location: N.C.
- Contact:
Re:
skysummit wrote:Well, I don't think he'll have much of a problem with moisture...plus, what's that behind 90L !?!?
The wave behind 90L could end up being the real deal. 90L just might be paving the way for that sucker. I think it will take at least another 24 hours for 90L to become a TD. The only wave so far this year to persist like this. All the others went POOF!!! I really thought this wave would of died out some once it hit the ocean but it has held its own. I see the NOGAPS model does not wanna give this one a shot. Sup with that??? Anyways.... How good has that model really performed in the past?
0 likes
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes
Re:
Chacor wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
It's time to watch this system. There's the smoking gun - the TPC is bullish on this wave. The TWO notes better organization. "A tropical depression could form today or tomorrow" is a positive sign for development.
0 likes
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
Here we go! I cant wait to make my forecasts again
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
this may be a lot
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 46
SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 20 20 17 14 15 11 11 12 21 13 25
SHEAR DIR 66 80 83 82 77 74 54 56 47 71 32 27 15
SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 136 131 126 121 123 126 129 141 146 148 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 142 137 130 124 126 131 134 148 151 148 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8
700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 63 62 59 56 63 59 65 65 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 19 20 19 20 19 22 22 23 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 35 40 54 68 69 79 95 91 102 102 93
200 MB DIV 25 25 6 20 21 13 10 11 37 57 53 70 40
LAND (KM) 785 975 1173 1392 1613 1902 1570 1275 1021 785 404 222 200
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5
LONG(DEG W) 24.3 26.3 28.2 30.3 32.4 36.7 41.2 45.6 50.2 54.4 58.2 61.1 63.3
STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 22 21 20 17 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 9 5 2 8 13 25 52 72 55 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 33. 38. 39.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 32. 36. 36.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
here is the LINK
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 46
SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 20 20 17 14 15 11 11 12 21 13 25
SHEAR DIR 66 80 83 82 77 74 54 56 47 71 32 27 15
SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 136 131 126 121 123 126 129 141 146 148 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 142 137 130 124 126 131 134 148 151 148 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8
700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 63 62 59 56 63 59 65 65 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 19 20 19 20 19 22 22 23 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 35 40 54 68 69 79 95 91 102 102 93
200 MB DIV 25 25 6 20 21 13 10 11 37 57 53 70 40
LAND (KM) 785 975 1173 1392 1613 1902 1570 1275 1021 785 404 222 200
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5
LONG(DEG W) 24.3 26.3 28.2 30.3 32.4 36.7 41.2 45.6 50.2 54.4 58.2 61.1 63.3
STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 22 21 20 17 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 9 5 2 8 13 25 52 72 55 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 33. 38. 39.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 32. 36. 36.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
here is the LINK
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
Code: Select all
487
WHXX01 KWBC 121511
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1511 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.3W 13.4N 27.5W 14.2N 31.3W 15.1N 35.7W
BAMD 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.4W 12.7N 32.4W 13.0N 36.4W
BAMM 12.3N 24.3W 12.9N 28.2W 13.4N 32.4W 13.9N 36.7W
LBAR 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.1W 12.9N 32.4W 13.3N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 1200 070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 40.6W 16.7N 50.4W 16.5N 59.9W 14.8N 67.7W
BAMD 13.4N 40.4W 13.9N 48.6W 14.3N 56.5W 13.9N 62.8W
BAMM 14.1N 41.2W 14.1N 50.2W 13.2N 58.2W 12.5N 63.3W
LBAR 13.6N 41.5W 13.4N 48.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 20.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 18.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
0 likes
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1335
- Age: 71
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
All the horses are at the starting gate. It's post time.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
Derek,what do you think about the intensity of SHIP?
0 likes
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
Here we go
The starter pistol just sounded on the season

0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 792
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
- Location: Rochester, NY
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
canegrl04 wrote:Here we goThe started pistol just sounded on the season
Time to get the Xanax refilled

0 likes
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
tracyswfla wrote:canegrl04 wrote:Here we goThe started pistol just sounded on the season
Time to get the Xanax refilled
I need some No-Doze

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run
Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z
I posted the 12z up a few posts ..showing all the fun details
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run
Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z
SHIPS ran a short time ago Derek.
0 likes
- skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run
Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z
12z SHIPS has it at 61kts in 5 days.
Code: Select all
487
WHXX01 KWBC 121511
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1511 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.3W 13.4N 27.5W 14.2N 31.3W 15.1N 35.7W
BAMD 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.4W 12.7N 32.4W 13.0N 36.4W
BAMM 12.3N 24.3W 12.9N 28.2W 13.4N 32.4W 13.9N 36.7W
LBAR 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.1W 12.9N 32.4W 13.3N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 1200 070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 40.6W 16.7N 50.4W 16.5N 59.9W 14.8N 67.7W
BAMD 13.4N 40.4W 13.9N 48.6W 14.3N 56.5W 13.9N 62.8W
BAMM 14.1N 41.2W 14.1N 50.2W 13.2N 58.2W 12.5N 63.3W
LBAR 13.6N 41.5W 13.4N 48.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 20.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 18.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38087
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
Well here it comes... the first real storm of the season.
Looks nice on satellite.

Looks nice on satellite.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 792
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
- Location: Rochester, NY
Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow
canegrl04 wrote:tracyswfla wrote:canegrl04 wrote:Here we goThe started pistol just sounded on the season
Time to get the Xanax refilled
I need some No-Doze
Triple shot at Starbucks!! Sorry will go back on topic...

0 likes