Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

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windstorm99
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Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly

#461 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 9:59 am

Anyone has comments on jeff masters thinking....
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Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly

#462 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:00 am

windstorm99 wrote:Anyone has comments on jeff masters thinking....


Nah....he's basically just stating the obvious. This way his post is correct no matter what happens.
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Re: Invest 90L in East Atlantic: 11;30 AM EDT TWO Shortly

#463 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:00 am

Aric Dunn wrote:not sure if anyone posted this
but its a TCFA
Image



they wanna take it a bit south of west
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Re:

#464 Postby marcane_1973 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:01 am

skysummit wrote:Well, I don't think he'll have much of a problem with moisture...plus, what's that behind 90L !?!?

Image

The wave behind 90L could end up being the real deal. 90L just might be paving the way for that sucker. I think it will take at least another 24 hours for 90L to become a TD. The only wave so far this year to persist like this. All the others went POOF!!! I really thought this wave would of died out some once it hit the ocean but it has held its own. I see the NOGAPS model does not wanna give this one a shot. Sup with that??? Anyways.... How good has that model really performed in the past?
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#465 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:02 am

ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re:

#466 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:03 am

Chacor wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

It's time to watch this system. There's the smoking gun - the TPC is bullish on this wave. The TWO notes better organization. "A tropical depression could form today or tomorrow" is a positive sign for development.
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#467 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:06 am

Here we go! I cant wait to make my forecasts again
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#468 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:14 am

this may be a lot


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 46

SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 20 20 17 14 15 11 11 12 21 13 25
SHEAR DIR 66 80 83 82 77 74 54 56 47 71 32 27 15
SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 136 131 126 121 123 126 129 141 146 148 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 142 137 130 124 126 131 134 148 151 148 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8
700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 63 62 59 56 63 59 65 65 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 19 20 19 20 19 22 22 23 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 35 40 54 68 69 79 95 91 102 102 93
200 MB DIV 25 25 6 20 21 13 10 11 37 57 53 70 40
LAND (KM) 785 975 1173 1392 1613 1902 1570 1275 1021 785 404 222 200
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5
LONG(DEG W) 24.3 26.3 28.2 30.3 32.4 36.7 41.2 45.6 50.2 54.4 58.2 61.1 63.3
STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 22 21 20 17 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 9 5 2 8 13 25 52 72 55 44

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 33. 38. 39.

SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 32. 36. 36.

** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3

Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)


here is the LINK
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#469 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:15 am

Code: Select all

487
WHXX01 KWBC 121511
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1511 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070812  1200   070813  0000   070813  1200   070814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  24.3W   13.4N  27.5W   14.2N  31.3W   15.1N  35.7W
BAMD    12.3N  24.3W   12.6N  28.4W   12.7N  32.4W   13.0N  36.4W
BAMM    12.3N  24.3W   12.9N  28.2W   13.4N  32.4W   13.9N  36.7W
LBAR    12.3N  24.3W   12.6N  28.1W   12.9N  32.4W   13.3N  36.8W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          31KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          31KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070814  1200   070815  1200   070816  1200   070817  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  40.6W   16.7N  50.4W   16.5N  59.9W   14.8N  67.7W
BAMD    13.4N  40.4W   13.9N  48.6W   14.3N  56.5W   13.9N  62.8W
BAMM    14.1N  41.2W   14.1N  50.2W   13.2N  58.2W   12.5N  63.3W
LBAR    13.6N  41.5W   13.4N  48.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        39KTS          50KTS          57KTS          61KTS
DSHP        39KTS          50KTS          57KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  24.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  20.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  18.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#470 Postby CourierPR » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:16 am

All the horses are at the starting gate. It's post time.
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#471 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:19 am

Derek,what do you think about the intensity of SHIP?
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#472 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:26 am

Here we go :eek: The starter pistol just sounded on the season
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#473 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:26 am

canegrl04 wrote:Here we go :eek: The started pistol just sounded on the season


Time to get the Xanax refilled :lol:
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#474 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:28 am

tracyswfla wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:Here we go :eek: The started pistol just sounded on the season


Time to get the Xanax refilled :lol:


I need some No-Doze :lol:
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#475 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:29 am

Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run

Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z
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Re:

#476 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run

Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z


I posted the 12z up a few posts ..showing all the fun details
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#477 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run

Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z


SHIPS ran a short time ago Derek.
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Re:

#478 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Last I saw, SHIPS didn't run

Another version of SHIPS, which has been better for the Atlantic in recent years, is doing next to nothing with this... at least as of the 0Z run last night. Didn't check the 6Z


12z SHIPS has it at 61kts in 5 days.


Code: Select all

487
WHXX01 KWBC 121511
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1511 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070812  1200   070813  0000   070813  1200   070814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  24.3W   13.4N  27.5W   14.2N  31.3W   15.1N  35.7W
BAMD    12.3N  24.3W   12.6N  28.4W   12.7N  32.4W   13.0N  36.4W
BAMM    12.3N  24.3W   12.9N  28.2W   13.4N  32.4W   13.9N  36.7W
LBAR    12.3N  24.3W   12.6N  28.1W   12.9N  32.4W   13.3N  36.8W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          31KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          31KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070814  1200   070815  1200   070816  1200   070817  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  40.6W   16.7N  50.4W   16.5N  59.9W   14.8N  67.7W
BAMD    13.4N  40.4W   13.9N  48.6W   14.3N  56.5W   13.9N  62.8W
BAMM    14.1N  41.2W   14.1N  50.2W   13.2N  58.2W   12.5N  63.3W
LBAR    13.6N  41.5W   13.4N  48.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        39KTS          50KTS          57KTS          61KTS
DSHP        39KTS          50KTS          57KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  24.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  20.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  18.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#479 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:31 am

Well here it comes... the first real storm of the season. :eek:

Looks nice on satellite.
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Re: Invest 90L: 11;30 AM EDT TWO=TD Later Today or Tommorow

#480 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:31 am

canegrl04 wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:Here we go :eek: The started pistol just sounded on the season


Time to get the Xanax refilled :lol:


I need some No-Doze :lol:



Triple shot at Starbucks!! Sorry will go back on topic... :wink:
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