Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[vaffie]

Looks like the lowest pressure and the strongest winds and the most rapidly increasing convection are all centered at and just south of Miami. Highest winds are 30 knots. Would not be surprised if at this rate it is named a subtropical depression or something like that by midday.

...

Wow, satellite and local radar loops really make it appear like a center is forming around the Key Largo area. If this convection holds up right over that center, we might have a tropical transition much faster than we thought.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

...

At Fowey Rocks, wind increasing to 33 knots, gusting to 35 this hour. Pressure continuing to fall at a dramatic pace: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
Down to 1011.9 now. Wind shifting over the last two hours from NNE to ENE, indicating possibly that the center is now about to pass just south of here.

[HURAKAN]

latest:



Raining cats and dogs outside! Very heavy rainfall.

[caneman]

looks like it is trying to organize around 25 and 72. ULL is really pulling away. Don't have a shear chart but looks to be getting more favorable.

[Dean4Storms]

The area just east of the Bahamas is the area to watch today. The ULL over the Keys is not any threat to going tropical anytime real soon. But the low at the surface out east of the ULL could move slower than the ULL and find itself in somewhat more favorable conditions in time.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N70W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 23N84W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 18N90W IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. STRONG
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND
BETWEEN 69W AND 75W FROM 20N TO 30N. IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF
AND ON IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 24 TO
36 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA
TO 27N75W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
23N80W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N75W TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM
THE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TO 12 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[HURAKAN]

Since it began to rain in the overnight hours I have received 2.50 inches of rain.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the eastern pole of the surface trough has already past Key West moving wsw. Probably another subtropical system as the models predicted.

[Toadstool]

Since it began to rain in the overnight hours I have received 2.50 inches of rain.

Pour that into Lake Oki... I don't know why it hasn't risen much, but it needs about 4 feet more of water! (God forbid they actually fix the Everglades so it retains fresh water instead of losing it, but that's a whole other issue...)

Quite wet here in Ft. Lauderdale, btw! Lots of rain.

[HURAKAN]

First visble:



Lovely rainy day in SoFla.

[cycloneye]

6z UKMET



This animation only goes for 48 hours.It shows the system growing in the GOM as the run goes along.

[caneman]

surprised there isn't more commenting going on here. Looks to be consolidating around 25 and 72

[caneman]

several buoys reporting sustained 25 mph winds with 35 mph gusts. Should be an invest with a STDS announced you would think.

[ronjon]

We should see an investigation tag placed on this system today. Convection is increasing over the eastern Bahamas and the ULL is pulling away to the SW toward western Cuba.

[boca]

surprised there isn't more commenting going on here. Looks to be consolidating around 25 and 72

Looks like that area in which your referring to does look like its consolidating but its moving NNE or is that just upper level winds contaminating the movement? ULL is moving out WSW passing Key West.

[wxman57]

Upper-level winds are way too hostile for something significant to spin up today or tomorrow. If you have to guess whether a surface low is "trying to spin up", then it probably isn't. It doesn't look like anything tropical will come of this, and it might be even less than TD 10 due to even higher shear.

Check back in a couple of days and maybe there will be a clear, well-defined but weak cold-core low center in the Gulf producing 20-30 kt winds offshore. That may be about as bad as it gets.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Plenty of thunderstorms, but it looks completely unorganized.

[HURAKAN]

A little more than 3 inches of rain already and it continues to rain.

It has been a long time since SoFla saw this kind of rainfall.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like JB, and to his credit, he did a video yesterday afternoon, but it still seems he'd rather snipe at NHC than elaborate on ideas about possible sub-tropical situation in Florida and/or GOMEX.

SUNDAY 11PM SHOCKING NEWS FROM THE EASTERN FRONT
Last advisory issued on MELISSA

unreal. ****

[caneman]

Well you may be right WXMN, however, it is already producing 30-35 mph winds around the Bahamas per latest quikscat and buoy info.