ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This week's ENSO anomalies index shows a rise in 3.4 to +0.6C. 1+2 to +1.6C, 3 remains at +0.7C, and 4 at +0.9C. Should be official at the update in a few hours.

With that said there's definitely something going on with the buoys that does not match.

Wow. We are already having a more sustained warming. If this continues and goes more rapidly, could we have a declaration of the El Niño in the next Monthly update?

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update of 5/2/14 where Nino 3.4 goes up to +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Just like that the TAO buoys are back to what they were. Definitely was some errors going on the past week with them.

Regardless, just my personal opinion, I think any reading at 3.4 for this El Nino event below 0.5C is history until spring next year when it collapses.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ONI for MAM will most likely be +0.3. I averaged the SST departures of Niño 3.4 from Mar 5 to May 28 in CPC data. We only had negatives on the first 2 weeks of March only at -0.4 but remained positive all throughout, then the month of May had very positive temps. This means a sharp rise from the -0.5 last FMA.

[Ntxw]

Looks like NOAA has been doing some updating to the RTG SST maps. Remember to look at the scale, the colors may be a little more dramatic than before (darker) but it's much better than the previous product which you had to do more guessing with some blended colors.





Aside we should get a PDO reading here in within the next 2 weeks for May, should come out as another positive value for the fifth consecutive month. June looks to be locked in for the 6th but that's for next month.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LOL at POAMA. They are not expecting an El Niño at all! According to the model, this year would be at flat neutral. In fact, we are having a sustained warming over the Pacific. This kinda reminds me of what happened during the El Niño events of 1982, 1994 and most recently 2006. I would lean towards CFSv2 & ECMWF forecasts, despite El Niño intensity is hard to forecast.

[cycloneye]

The Aussies update has El Nino by August but they point out the positive SOI and trade winds as a weak response.

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[NDG]

I was about to point that out about how warm the western Pacific still is and how the SOI is now up to 7.3, surely the atmosphere has not responded yet to how warm the eastern Pacific is. Something had to give sooner or later, IMO.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... tionindex/

[euro6208]

While the warm tongue of water extending along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific is typical of an emerging El Niño, the warm anomalies in the western Pacific mean the west to east gradient of temperatures is not yet large enough to generate and sustain a typical El Niño response in the tropical atmosphere.

Very warm wpac needs to cool down a bit for us to witness a tradional el nino.

[Ntxw]

SST anom maps to compare the beginning of each month since March. Ups and downs we've been through daily and weekly but once again the net result for the entire spring (seasonal as ENSO is) has not stopped the momentum on a broader scale.









Don't quote without removing IMG tags

[Ntxw]

Some updates from the ENSO blog at climate.gov (CPC). The first one I picked up from then what they consider criteria for declaring ENSO, in this case El Nino.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso...

We will declare the onset of El Niño conditions (not yet a full-blown El Niño event) when three criteria are met:

- Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.

- The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.

- A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.

That should clarify some things up if you were wondering what they may be looking for.

___________

Another good blog from them on El Nino/La Nina and it's effects on Hurricane seasons

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ane-season
____________

Lastly, the MJO is about to roar back to life in the WPAC and eventually make way east after being incoherent for much of May. CPAC and EPAC basins should be seeing kelvin waves to boot, may get active again there.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some updates from the ENSO blog at climate.gov (CPC). The first one I picked up from then what they consider criteria for declaring ENSO, in this case El Nino.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso...

We will declare the onset of El Niño conditions (not yet a full-blown El Niño event) when three criteria are met:

- Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.

- The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.

- A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.

That should clarify some things up if you were wondering what they may be looking for.

___________

Another good blog from them on El Nino/La Nina and it's effects on Hurricane seasons

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ane-season
____________

Lastly, the MJO is about to roar back to life in the WPAC and eventually make way east after being incoherent for much of May. CPAC and EPAC basins should be seeing kelvin waves to boot, may get active again there.

So, will the MJO cause the big subsurface warm pool to warm again, and could mean for a possible declaration of the El Niño anytime this month? And could mean more WPac storms leading to westerlies and causing sea surface warming over the CPac and EPac?

[cycloneye]

Yeah,the WPAC has been very quiet in the past month and a half but with the forecast of a strong pulse soon,things will turn active in that basin.

Note=SOI reached La Nina threshold of +8.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: Yeah,the WPAC has been very quiet in the past month and a half but with the forecast of a strong pulse soon,things will turn active in that basin.

Note=SOI reached La Nina threshold of +8.

And when the wet MJO reaches the eastern South Paacific near Tahiti, and thus placing the dry MJO over Australia, would mean that the SOI will tank a lot later on, but not now. Wet MJO means lower pressure, while the opposite happens with dry MJO, and thus if the Wet MJO is over Tahiti, while the dry MJO over Darwin brings higher pressure over there, bringing us to negative SOI readings.

[cycloneye]

Here is the SOI graphic that shows it reaching the +8 La Nina threshold. (You are reading it right,La Nina threshold) Will it go down in the future to -8 El Nino threshold that it was in late March thru early April?

[euro6208]

:uarrow: Yeah,the WPAC has been very quiet in the past month and a half but with the forecast of a strong pulse soon,things will turn active in that basin.

Note=SOI reached La Nina threshold of +8.

And when the SOI reaches the eastern South Paacific near Tahiti, and thus placing the dry MJO over Australia, would mean that the SOI will tank a lot later on, but not now.

You sound drunk, SOI reaches the eastern south pacific? or do you mean wet MJO?

[euro6208]

It has been very quiet in the WPAC. I think this is telling us something about this pre-el nino...No activity = Weaker El nino or Complete dissipation later on...Active = Stronger El nino that will likely last until next year...

As for the strength of this El nino, the WPAC is the place where we should look at for answers...

Just my opinion though.

[Yellow Evan]

It's worth pointing out that 2009 struggled to get -SOI values for a while (till fall I believe).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: Yeah,the WPAC has been very quiet in the past month and a half but with the forecast of a strong pulse soon,things will turn active in that basin.

Note=SOI reached La Nina threshold of +8.

And when the MJO reaches the eastern South Pacific near Tahiti, and thus placing the dry MJO over Australia, would mean that the SOI will tank a lot later on, but not now.

You sound drunk, SOI reaches the eastern south pacific? or do you mean wet MJO?

Corrected. MANY typos because I used my small phone. Hihihi.

[NDG]

And the SOI continous to go up, now up to +9.4

SOI Index