Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[boca]

The 00zGFS starts rolling in about 12:30am eastern.I don't know if I'll make it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A late May/beginning of June storm, if it even forms in this basin, would probably not exceed tropical storm strength, minimal hurricane at the most, which would cause minimal disruption to Gulf operations.

At $3.85 a gallon, that is probably a good thing.


Now, a GFS rumored storm in August, because a storm then could be big, would be enough to drive up prices.

[cycloneye]

The 00zGFS starts rolling in about 12:30am eastern.I don't know if I'll make it.

11:30 PM EDT.

[boca]

Thanks cycloneye I'll hang out then and wait.

[Duddy]

The 00zGFS starts rolling in about 12:30am eastern.I don't know if I'll make it.

11:30 PM EDT.

Yep, 12 minutes.

cycloneye, did you get my message about the chatroom? I just want to make sure it works for the Hurricane Season party next Saturday.

[Eyewall]

Do we know yet what day this is suppose to get started. I know the modles have been all over the place on that.

[boca]

Do we know yet what day this is suppose to get started. I know the modles have been all over the place on that.

According to the GFS it looks like Thursday next week( May29th).

[Eyewall]

Let the GFS party get started.

[cycloneye]

From the New Orleans AFD:


.LONG TERM...

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you extrapolate the UK Met out, its super-mega East Pac storm might hit close enough to the skinny part of Central America (near Tehuanepec, and might be strong enough, to maybe make it into the Bay of Campeche. Maybe.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.05.2008



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.6N 94.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.05.2008 9.6N 94.7W WEAK

00UTC 27.05.2008 9.1N 92.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.05.2008 9.5N 91.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.05.2008 9.6N 91.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 28.05.2008 9.5N 91.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.05.2008 9.8N 92.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.05.2008 10.3N 93.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.05.2008 10.7N 94.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 30.05.2008 11.5N 95.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.05.2008 12.6N 95.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 31.05.2008 13.6N 95.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 251656



[jaxfladude]

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 18 Hours A series of lows,a sign of broad low pressure.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Lows continue around.

00z GFS at 48 Hours Nothing of interest yet.

00z GFS at 54 Hours A solo low appears north of Panama.

00z GFS at 72 Hours EPAC looks busy but Caribbean still nothing.

00z GFS at 90 Hours Looks like a crossover from EPAC to Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

West Atlantic/Easp Pac loop: Lots of storms,EPAC side, no signs of anything organizing.

[boca]

The 72hr mark. The GFS is giving birth to our low.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072m.gif

[Eyewall]

That is normally a sing of something trying to get going in the eastern pacific.

[Rainband]

wahoo eastern pacific wins

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 18 Hours A series of lows,a sign of broad low pressure.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Lows continue around.

00z GFS at 48 Hours Nothing of interest yet.

00z GFS at 54 Hours A solo low appears north of Panama.

00z GFS at 72 Hours EPAC looks busy but Caribbean still nothing.

00z GFS at 90 Hours Looks like a crossover from EPAC to Caribbean.

[Eyewall]

It is very possible that we could see two stormes develop on in the pacific and one in the caribbean.

[RL3AO]

There has not been a year this decade without an EPac storm in May.

[Cyclone1]

There has not been a year this decade without an EPac storm in May.

I know, it's been surprisingly quiet. There's never been an Epac season without a storm in May or June.