Long Range Models

[KWT]

Yet another impressive run from the GFS though I've got a sneaky feeling that its missing 92L and uderestimating its chances. Still I think the system this model develops could also come true as well...

[vacanechaser]

second run in a row hitting north carolina.. now with the second system moving in on florida.. interesting week ahead



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[El Nino]

Maybe recurving towards NYC ?

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET for wave South of CV islands.

Code: Select all

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.6N  27.4W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.08.2008  11.6N  27.4W     WEAK

 12UTC 11.08.2008  10.8N  27.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.08.2008  12.2N  26.9W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  13.8N  28.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2008  15.2N  30.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  33.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.08.2008  14.3N  36.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.08.2008  14.3N  40.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.08.2008  14.7N  43.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.08.2008  14.1N  46.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.08.2008  14.4N  47.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.08.2008  15.8N  47.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


[Blown Away]

second run in a row hitting north carolina.. now with the second system moving in on florida.. interesting week ahead
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

The system going to Carolina is the wave behind 92L, right?

[vacanechaser]

second run in a row hitting north carolina.. now with the second system moving in on florida.. interesting week ahead
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

The system going to Carolina is the wave behind 92L, right?

yes, thats right.... i guess it would be 93L when it gets a number



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[Mecklenburg]

i'm still puzzling on why the GFS doesn't pick up 92L in it's runs

[Mecklenburg]

i still don't see 92L being developed by the GFS, but it is good on the future 93L and 94L... at the end of it's run, the GFS shows at least 4 strong hurricanes...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jhamps10]

18z gfs loses 92L between 90 and 106 hours. it does however show future 93L,94L and maybe 95L at 138:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

[Mecklenburg]

18z gfs loses 92L between 90 and 106 hours. it does however show future 93L,94L and maybe 95L at 138:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

at 384 hours... 93L is a full blown hurricane and i see the future 94L following it's track though much weaker... 95L is also developing... and guess what, 96L is something to be watched...

[jhamps10]

18z gfs loses 92L between 90 and 106 hours. it does however show future 93L,94L and maybe 95L at 138:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

at 384 hours... 93L is a full blown hurricane and i see the future 94L following it's track though much weaker... 95L is also developing... and guess what, 96L is something to be watched...

umm, actually at 384 on the 12z 93L is dead and long past landfall, so nice try there..... your mistruthful post, although even meant as joking, not the best and the 18z run is only out to 168, so nice try.... NOT!

[Mecklenburg]

18z gfs loses 92L between 90 and 106 hours. it does however show future 93L,94L and maybe 95L at 138:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

at 384 hours... 93L is a full blown hurricane and i see the future 94L following it's track though much weaker... 95L is also developing... and guess what, 96L is something to be watched...

umm, actually at 384 on the 12z 93L is dead and long past landfall, so nice try there..... your mistruthful post, although even meant as joking, not the best and the 18z run is only out to 168, so nice try.... NOT!

what...then how come i see it here... i don't understand... i was no joking.. or perhaps i have the wrong run?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jhamps10]

18z gfs

what...then how come i see it here... i don't understand... i was no joking.. or perhaps i have the wrong run?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[/quote][/quote]


wrong run.... that's the 00z run last night...

[Mecklenburg]

18z gfs

what...then how come i see it here... i don't understand... i was no joking.. or perhaps i have the wrong run?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[/quote]


wrong run.... that's the 00z run last night...[/quote]

aw ok... my mistake...

[jhamps10]

174:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

180:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180m.gif
clearly sensing a weaker ridge

192:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif

206:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif
Last run above is 204 and not 206.

[blp]

Looks like future 93L is going fishing on this run. The trend is heading further North. Let's see what the 00Z run has.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[jhamps10]

Looks like future 93L is going fishing on this run. The trend is heading further North. Let's see what the 00Z run has.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

yep going fishing.... may come close to Berumda though.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
The whole animation. I dont put any faith in this run, am still awaiting 00z