Wave WSW of CV Islands

[JonathanBelles]

Helllooooo August!! I am not quite understanding why the invest was removed only to be most likely put back up by tomorrow. Maybe it was prematurely named in the first place.

Whether it be a storm or an invest, they should be declared when they meet criteria. It met the criteria a couple days ago, but it did not yesterday, and it is beginning to fit again. I certainly agree with how this system (or systems) was handled.

[Nimbus]

Is there a wave axis near -35W just ahead of that recent burst of convection back near -33W.
If so thats too close not to merge.

[KWT]

Without nany doubt it should be an invest now, it fits all the critera, not only for development but the fact the models are also doing stuff with it...no more then 6-10hrs before the forum explodes into life!

[wzrgirl1]

Helllooooo August!! I am not quite understanding why the invest was removed only to be most likely put back up by tomorrow. Maybe it was prematurely named in the first place.

Whether it be a storm or an invest, they should be declared when they meet criteria. It met the criteria a couple days ago, but it did not yesterday, and it is beginning to fit again. I certainly agree with how this system (or systems) was handled.

Having said that, how much could it have changed in 24 hours though to declare an invest, remove an invest and declare
an invest again all within 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

Have we ever seen a 40% Code Orange w/o an invest tag?

[MandiAltman]

Do I need to buy gas for my generator or what??

Isn't generator fuel part of your hurricane prep plan every season?

Sure, sure! Buying fuel prematurely is a good way to assure that a storm never comes. It's murphy's law.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that at...

2AM-60%
8AM-70%
2PM-90%
8PM-100%
Midnight Monday-TD

[KWT]

Have we ever seen a 40% Code Orange w/o an invest tag?

I'm willing to bet in 6hrs time we will have 90L back again or possibly 91L, far too much occuring for them to ignore it, plus the code Orange and moderate model support as well...

Conditions looks worrying in the Bahamas region...could be looking at a hurricane in that region if it avoids earlier shear, which is very possible as well...

[TwisterFanatic]

Are the forecasted conditions favorable for development over the next few days?

[wxman57]

Looks like the wave axis is near -35w with that recent burst of convection right behind near -33W? Looks ready to roll to me.

Hard to pick it out of the ITCZ, but I'd say maybe at 36W-37W now. Wave behind it is along 30-31W.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm still concerned that it's too far south to get a good spin going. It's only around 8N and remains part of the ITCZ. That's why I believe it will take a few days before we see a TD, but I think it's likely to become a TD. My date is late Tuesday.

[Sihara]

Have we ever seen a 40% Code Orange w/o an invest tag?

I'm willing to bet in 6hrs time we will have 90L back again or possibly 91L, far too much occuring for them to ignore it, plus the code Orange and moderate model support as well...

I was going to ask the same question - if it's Code Orange at 40%, why wouldn't it be declared an invest at the same time the chance rose to 40%?

[wxman57]

Didn't know anyone was posting here, I was on the 90L thread, as that's the feature I think will more than likely develop as this wave approaches. Top part of this wave along 31W is moving faster than 90L near 9N/36-37W. Maybe an interesting interaction coming up in a day or two.

If there's no more 90L then maybe that thread should be locked, as we're all talking about the same development in 2 different threads now?

[KWT]

Just a matter of time before this thread comes alive again, the fact this is at 40% and all models are at least strongly hinting at possible development should be enough for the NHC to slap the invest back up again in the next 6-12hrs....and after that things get real interesting!

Track towards Ne Caribbean, then IMO probably onwards to the Bahamas, after that and reall anything could happen, anything from out to sea to west into the Gulf is a real good option right now...so keep a close eye on how things evolve!

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be an interesting next 10-15 days I'm afraid with this one. Should start to gain latitude as any surface low begins to deepen.

[Aric Dunn]

There are some increasing signs that this is nearing a point where we close to a well defined LLC the recent convection on the west side very near the broad circ is indicative of a tightening pressure gradient and increased convergence..

[AJC3]

Didn't know anyone was posting here, I was on the 90L thread, as that's the feature I think will more than likely develop as this wave approaches. Top part of this wave along 31W is moving faster than 90L near 9N/36-37W. Maybe an interesting interaction coming up in a day or two.

If there's no more 90L then maybe that thread should be locked, as we're all talking about the same development in 2 different threads now?

Done, for the time being. I moved some of the posts on the last page of that thread over here. It remains to be seen whether this area gets either re-designated as 90L or designated as a new invest (i.e. 91L).

[cycloneye]

Thank Tony for helping on that.

[Blown Away]

Going to be an interesting next 10-15 days I'm afraid with this one. Should start to gain latitude as any surface low begins to deepen.

Based on the recent model runs, former 90L is about 4-5 days from the NE Caribbean and about 9 days from Florida assuming it follows a general WNW track.

[cycloneye]