2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[ninel conde]

seeing signs of a major flip coming for 2016

i posted this a few weeks ago

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 4993278980

if that verifies then clearly moisture will return, pressures would be much lower, SAL sparse, and instability very high

[cycloneye]

The Instability is very low right now.Will it recuperate some in the coming weeks?

Courtesy by Dr Jeff Masters:

[gatorcane]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

Wow, haven't looked at satellite all week. Didn't realize things were that bad and dry. Looks like middle of january out there. But have no fear business is about to pick up once September rolls around.

It's very possible we won't see things pick up until late August or early September. In fact if you look at the years South Florida was hit by a hurricane, often times the season is quite dead until the end-of-August or early September which can create a false sense of security. Usually (but not always) there is not a lot of activity prior to that. Still plenty of time for things to become more favorable in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

The question is will they ever?

[Hammy]

:uarrow: The question is will they ever?

Probably not this year. Given the continuing strengthening of El Nino we probably won't see anything in August at this rate, and maybe a storm or two in September, and maybe one in October. This year screams 1997 repeat.

[LarryWx]

Regarding geneses in mid to late Aug that resulted in a mid to late Aug H hit on the CONUS during the 17 strengthening El Nino's since 1877 that eventually reached the strong category, three of the 17 seasons had hits:

1888: cat 3 hit on S FL followed by a cat 2 LA hit:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1918: cat 1 hit on NC:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1991: Bob was a cat 2 hit on E New England:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

What about later months, namely September? Or Gulf strikes in Mexico?

-Andrew92

For the 17 El Nino's since 1877 that eventually reached the strong category:

1)CONUS:
Sep H hits:
-1965: Betsy hit S FL as a cat 3 on 9/8 and LA as a cat 4 on 9/9-10
-1930: Storm #2 hit NC Outer Banks as a cat 1 on 9/12
-1896: Storm #2 hit MA as a cat 1 on 9/10; Storm #4 hit the FL Big Bend on 9/29 as a cat 3
-1888: Storm #6 hit SE MA as a cat 1 on 9/26
-1877: Storm #2 hit SE LA-FL Panhandle as a cat 1 on 9/18

Oct H hits:
-1987: Floyd hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/12
-1899: storm #9 hit near the SC/NC border as a cat 2 on 10/31
-1888: storm #7 hit the FL Big Bend as a cat 2 on 10/10
-1877: storm #4 hit the FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/2-3

So, Sep-Oct Hit dates: 9/8-10, 9/10, 9/12, 9/18*, 9/26*, 9/29, 10/2-3*, 10/10*, 10/12, 10/31
* = 2nd year superstrong El Nino

So, 7 of the 17 strong oncoming Nino seasons had a CONUS H hit from 10 H's in either or both of Sep and Oct. So, don't let your guard down.

These suggest to me that there might be a heightened chance in NW FL of a cat 2-3 late Sep-early Oct. based on 1896, 1888, and 1877 despite these all being prior to 1900 especially because all three of these were 2nd year strong El Nino and 2 of the 3 were superstrong similar to 2015.

The 2nd year strongs are 1987, 1940, 1905, 1896, 1888, and 1877. 4 of these 6 had at least one hit. 3 of the 6 2nd year strong El Nino and both of the 2nd year superstrong (1888 and 1877) had two hits (1st in mid to late Sep. and 2nd in very late Sep. to early Oct.).

2. MX: both of these were during 2nd year superstrong Nino
-1888: storm #4 hit as a cat 1 9/5-7
-1877: storm #4 hit as a cat 1 9/29

Bottom line: assuming we're headed for superstrong El Nino, these stats suggest that late Sep. through early Oct. may have heightened risk of 1-2 MX/CONUS hits as strong as a cat 3. In the CONUS, NW FL may very well be the area with the most heightened risk.

Edit/Aside: Happy 1,000th post Ninel!

[ninel conde]

thanks.

[Hammy]

Are the below normal water temps partially responsible for the dry air and lack of instability?

[Andrew92]

Thanks Larry! It just goes to show, even in a strong El Nino, there is a long way to go in the season. The facts remain we haven't had a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Ingrid in 2013 and the last time the Gulf of Mexico went two straight seasons without a hurricane was over 50 years ago at the earliest. I know the Gulf is lowly-regarded as a place of interest because of what transpired in similarly strong events like 1982 and 1997, but and event like 1877, 1888, or 1896 is not out of the question by a long shot.

I was admittedly curious about Mexico because of 1977's strength of El Nino. That was the year the Mexican Gulf Coast was slammed by Anita, albeit in an lightly-populated area, and Brownsville dodged a huge bullet as it veered south almost as it approached the coast there. I think that came from a frontal low-type storm, but may have been combined to some degree with a tropical wave. I'm pretty familiar with which years since 1957 are classified as El Nino events, but not as versed in the strengths, so thank you for that.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

The tropical atlantic is in a drought, which I suppose can happen just like it can happen over land. It seems to me that until this 'drought' ends the MDR will be mostly dead. I'm not so sure conditions are as bad as they can get because I don't know how bad they can get.

When comparing this season to other dead seasons conditions kind of do seem like they are as bad as they can get.

in other dead seasons you would still often see waves with moisture make it all the way across. not this season.

1991 had no hurricanes come from tropical waves (the only storms that formed down there died quickly), which I believe is the only time in the satellite era that it happened.

1997 had only one storm come from a tropical wave, but it became a major hurricane.

[Hammy]

1997 had only one storm come from a tropical wave, but it became a major hurricane.

Fabian also originated from a tropical wave as per post-analysis.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Larry! It just goes to show, even in a strong El Nino, there is a long way to go in the season. The facts remain we haven't had a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Ingrid in 2013 and the last time the Gulf of Mexico went two straight seasons without a hurricane was over 50 years ago at the earliest. I know the Gulf is lowly-regarded as a place of interest because of what transpired in similarly strong events like 1982 and 1997, but and event like 1877, 1888, or 1896 is not out of the question by a long shot.

I was admittedly curious about Mexico because of 1977's strength of El Nino. That was the year the Mexican Gulf Coast was slammed by Anita, albeit in an lightly-populated area, and Brownsville dodged a huge bullet as it veered south almost as it approached the coast there. I think that came from a frontal low-type storm, but may have been combined to some degree with a tropical wave. I'm pretty familiar with which years since 1957 are classified as El Nino events, but not as versed in the strengths, so thank you for that.

-Andrew92

I enjoy reading all the research put into this BUT thinking the chances of getting a system that hasn't happened in well over a hundred years is pretty much a very long shot.

[WPBWeather]

The OPINIONS (which is what they are, informed but still opinions) of ProMets and even others are interesting to read, We just need to make sure we don't go off into the "no hurricanes ever in the ATL" land.

[LarryWx]

Thanks Larry! It just goes to show, even in a strong El Nino, there is a long way to go in the season. The facts remain we haven't had a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Ingrid in 2013 and the last time the Gulf of Mexico went two straight seasons without a hurricane was over 50 years ago at the earliest. I know the Gulf is lowly-regarded as a place of interest because of what transpired in similarly strong events like 1982 and 1997, but and event like 1877, 1888, or 1896 is not out of the question by a long shot.

I was admittedly curious about Mexico because of 1977's strength of El Nino. That was the year the Mexican Gulf Coast was slammed by Anita, albeit in an lightly-populated area, and Brownsville dodged a huge bullet as it veered south almost as it approached the coast there. I think that came from a frontal low-type storm, but may have been combined to some degree with a tropical wave. I'm pretty familiar with which years since 1957 are classified as El Nino events, but not as versed in the strengths, so thank you for that.

-Andrew92

I enjoy reading all the research put into this BUT thinking the chances of getting a system that hasn't happened in well over a hundred years is pretty much a very long shot.

Although those years were over a hundred years ago, I don't think that kind of scenario is as much of long shot as it may seem. The reason I say that is that there haven't been more than a few 2nd year strong El Nino's since then: only 1905, 1940, and 1987. Moreover, there have been zero 2nd year superNino's since then.

[Hammy]

I was talking to someone on Skype about the dry air in the MDR, and did a bit of research comparing the lack of hurricanes forming in that region--we've had only two hurricanes form east of 60 and south of 20 since 2011; the interesting thing being that from 1967-1973, there were only two in seven years, and both were 1969.

I enjoy reading all the research put into this BUT thinking the chances of getting a system that hasn't happened in well over a hundred years is pretty much a very long shot.

I don't disagree about this year being different from those, but I wouldn't doubt it based -solely- on that line of thinking, after all when was the last time we had less than three hurricanes in the Atlantic with no majors before 2013? Almost a hundred years earlier. Strange things have happened recently.

[Ntxw]

Great stuff as usual Larry. You are the statistician!

I hope we appreciate good conditions when they come around. It's very difficult to form a tropical cyclone and requires near perfect atmospheric conditions for a major+. Though some would say this is a good thing from an impact standpoint.

[Sanibel]

Central Atlantic waves maintaining slightly more moisture.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is your source of lack of instability:



I made this plot yesterday, showing vertical motion over the Atlantic Main Development Region according to the CFSR. This year has featured the most subsidence since to start a hurricane season since 1979. Positive values denote sinking motion, which acts to warm and dry the atmosphere.

An interesting research question is what has caused the widespread subsidence we have observed so far this hurricane season? Chances are ENSO and the MJO have played a key role, but cooler SSTs and other factors are also likely important.

[gatorcane]

Despite the record low instability, I am seeing signs with the models the MDR may start to gradually moisten over the next week or two. The waves I am seeing over Africa look especially impressive with good spin and lots of convection. You got to think with so many of these waves moving off Africa, we will get a wave or two as we head later into August and then early September that will bust through and finally be able to develop in the MDR.

Usually mid August is when Cape Verde season tends to get going so let's see what happens over the next few weeks.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 12h12 hours ago State College, PA

http://Weatherbell.com video..Why hurricane season should not be written off. pattern going to Sept 02 look
Isadore and Lily in gulf