2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/872574642040569857

Hmmm... I wonder if the swath of above normal precipitation is a hint as to what the mean tracks might be like for this seasons Cape Verde storms. Looks as if it is suggesting the Bermuda High to possibly setup shop just off the east coast again.

[gatorcane]

Seems like a pretty active ITCZ for this time of year from Panama out into the Eastern Atlantic. We will see this ITCZ move north over the next few of months. A sign of an active MDR come Aug through Oct?

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things It looks like 2004 may not be a bad analog as the Atlantic and EPAC don't look to dissimilar to that year this year and just like 2004 the ITCZ is quite active

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at things It looks like 2004 may not be a bad analog as the Atlantic and EPAC don't look to dissimilar to that year this year and just like 2004 the ITCZ is quite active

Do you have visual proof? You've been saying that 2004 is an analog for quite awhile.

[Hurricaneman]

As far as ocean anomalies 2004 is the closest match especially on the pacific side but it seem I was wrong with the ITCZ as it more matches 2003 and 2005 which is very interesting and 1980 had similar activity in the ITCZ

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/html/GO ... 3-06-10-21

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/html/GO ... 5-06-08-03

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/html/SM ... 0-06-08-12

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 5.2017.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 8.2004.gif

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842101037436929




 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842733035163648

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842101037436929




 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842733035163648

So, the new run lowered the numbers from the previous run?

[Ntxw]

Overall at the moment, the Globe's activity is running much below normal this year. IF and if there is some surprise lesser season, we would likely have to see links. That is a big if currently.

[wxman57]

June ECMWF seasonal charts came out this morning. Its Nino 3.4 forecast is for significantly cooler peak-season temps than in its April and May forecasts. Not much above normal there, temperature-wise in Aug-Oct. It's still only forecasting 12 named storms. However, it went from 7.2 to 8.1 hurricanes between the May and June forecasts. ACE 90% of normal.

[Bocadude85]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842101037436929

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842733035163648

So, the new run lowered the numbers from the previous run?

The new run shows the same amount of NS and hurricanes as the May update.

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842101037436929

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/872842733035163648

So, the new run lowered the numbers from the previous run?

The new run shows the same amount of NS and hurricanes as the May update.

I just seen the ECMWF SSTs, and it is odd that it keeps the same numbers as before. That set up seems to favor the Atlantic a lot. It has a warm MDR, and a cooler Pacific. Hmmm

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is the SST gif showing the changes from Feb to June below:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/872853627685228545

[SFLcane]

Signs keep pointing towards a busy season.

[SFLcane]

June ECMWF seasonal charts came out this morning. Its Nino 3.4 forecast is for significantly cooler peak-season temps than in its April and May forecasts. Not much above normal there, temperature-wise in Aug-Oct. It's still only forecasting 12 named storms. However, it went from 7.2 to 8.1 hurricanes between the May and June forecasts. ACE 90% of normal.

57 odd not much of an increase in named storms. Seems like a favorable pattern for the Atlantic.

[Alyono]

below average activity off of the coast of Mexico as predicted by the EC

[TheStormExpert]

Has the ECMWF's June MSLP map come out yet?

[cycloneye]

Has the ECMWF's June MSLP map come out yet?

To the public on the 15th.

[Hurricaneman]

Signs keep pointing towards a busy season.

Even if you look at the next 10 days it shows what could be around the corner for the peak of hurricane season and I don't like it(as in it's going to be big time active)

[TheStormExpert]

Signs keep pointing towards a busy season.

Even if you look at the next 10 days it shows what could be around the corner for the peak of hurricane season and I don't like it(as in it's going to be big time active)

How do we know it won't reverse like it did as we progressed through the 2013 season?

[Hammy]

Signs keep pointing towards a busy season.

Even if you look at the next 10 days it shows what could be around the corner for the peak of hurricane season and I don't like it(as in it's going to be big time active)

How do we know it won't reverse like it did as we progressed through the 2013 season?

In 2013 the pressures in the MDR were higher and the atmosphere was significantly drier at the moment, so there were already some signs there that we simply didn't pick up on.