2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

There isn't a season canceling crowd yet

[TheStormExpert]

I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.

So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!

Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.

Florida is always under the gun. As are many other locations. I give absolutely zero credence to any of these analogs. The 2020 atmosphere doesn't care about 1908, etc. It is CLIMO for Atlantic Basin storms to re-curve away from the East Coast. This is no revelation, come on.

Not necessarily, we weren’t under the gun by anything significant in 2010. That’s just one example of many years where weren’t threatened.

[TheStormExpert]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

Season is cancelled, due to COVID-19!

[toad strangler]

So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!

Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.

Florida is always under the gun. As are many other locations. I give absolutely zero credence to any of these analogs. The 2020 atmosphere doesn't care about 1908, etc. It is CLIMO for Atlantic Basin storms to re-curve away from the East Coast. This is no revelation, come on.

Not necessarily, we weren’t under the gun by anything significant in 2010. That’s just one example of many years where weren’t threatened.

Yeah it's EASY to say that post mortem LOL. It's May last I looked. Not December. AGAIN, it is climo for storms to stay away from continental land in the Atlantic Basin. It's EASY to make that call because the percentages are HEAVILY on your side. Now the islands are a much different story.

[TheStormExpert]

Florida is always under the gun. As are many other locations. I give absolutely zero credence to any of these analogs. The 2020 atmosphere doesn't care about 1908, etc. It is CLIMO for Atlantic Basin storms to re-curve away from the East Coast. This is no revelation, come on.

Not necessarily, we weren’t under the gun by anything significant in 2010. That’s just one example of many years where weren’t threatened.

Yeah it's EASY to say that post mortem LOL. It's May last I looked. Not December.

I’m not saying that we won’t be threatened this season, but to go all out and say that we’re ALWAYS under the gun seems a bit extreme at least to me.

And yes I’m fully aware of what month it is, thanks for asking!

[toad strangler]

Not necessarily, we weren’t under the gun by anything significant in 2010. That’s just one example of many years where weren’t threatened.

Yeah it's EASY to say that post mortem LOL. It's May last I looked. Not December.

I’m not saying that we won’t be threatened this season, but to go all out and say that we’re ALWAYS under the gun seems a bit extreme at least to me.

And yes I’m fully aware of what month it is, thanks for asking!

Good Lord it's NOT GOING ALL OUT. Florida is a historic hotspot. Along with the Upper Gulf Coast and the Carolina's. EVERY YEAR you have to beware in these places. Why do I feel like I'm on a hamster wheel

[GeneratorPower]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

[toad strangler]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

Not many seasons, MOST seasons recurve away from the continental United States because that is what the Atlantic Basin produces in non anomalous set ups. It's called climatology. But I digress, because this discussion is leaving out much of the basin such as the islands and South America AND this is a model run discussion.

[Ubuntwo]

This argument leaves out the fact that there is always a shift in steering patterns, and that they constantly ebb and flow. Some years you have a system recurving a week after another storm in the same position went on to make landfall. What happens in may has pretty much no bearing on the rest of the season - hell, 2005 didn't have any storms till June, 2004 almost till August!

[GrayLancer18]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

Season is cancelled, due to COVID-19!

Who knows

Maybe even the hurricanes will place themselves in quarantine.

[TheStormExpert]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

Season is cancelled, due to COVID-19!

Who knows

Maybe even the hurricanes will place themselves in quarantine.

Out to sea would be nice!

[NotSparta]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

Season is cancelled, due to COVID-19!

Sounds good to me

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1259849491768840192

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1259849491768840192

Just 10 days until the NOAA outlook. If they hop on the train my eyes will open wider, although I'd expect them to be more conservative than others because they are a government funded entity and it being the initial outlook. Given what we can see I imagine they will look for an above normal season but wait until the mid season update to for any horn blowing should indicators continue as they have been.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1259849491768840192

Just 10 days until the NOAA outlook. If they hop on the train my eyes will open wider, although I'd expect them to be more conservative than others because they are a government funded entity and it being the initial outlook. Given what we can see I imagine they will look for an above normal season but wait until the mid season update to for any horn blowing should indicators continue as they have been.

I'd expect NOAA to go with a large range but lean above average, probably something like 14-19 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1259823235560026112



 https://twitter.com/nitzancohen/status/1259838462213132288



 https://twitter.com/nitzancohen/status/1259853161138978816

[Shell Mound]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

Agreed. The origin and trajectory of the first named storm, however, can also offer clues, whether pre-season or not. Based on historical data since 1851, if a subtropical storm forms over or near the Bahamas in May and heads generally north-northeast or northeast, then the upcoming season tends to feature many storms that curve OTS east of the mainland U.S. Examples include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Virtually all storms in these years featured strong poleward trajectories—including the (few) storms that actually managed to strike the mainland U.S. These years, on average, featured an east-based, mainly +NAO during ASO, with a mean trough along part of the Eastern Seaboard, primarily near the Southeastern U.S. As mentioned previously, the main targets, if any, in these years were Central America, TX/LA, and the Outer Banks of NC. In other words, these seasons were rather similar to 2019, excepting activity in the Caribbean, which 2019 lacked.

[SFLcane]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

Agreed. The origin and trajectory of the first named storm, however, can also offer clues, whether pre-season or not. Based on historical data since 1851, if a subtropical storm forms over or near the Bahamas in May and heads generally north-northeast or northeast, then the upcoming season tends to feature many storms that curve OTS east of the mainland U.S. Examples include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Virtually all storms in these years featured strong poleward trajectories—including the (few) storms that actually managed to strike the mainland U.S. These years, on average, featured an east-based, mainly +NAO during ASO, with a mean trough along part of the Eastern Seaboard, primarily near the Southeastern U.S. As mentioned previously, the main targets, if any, in these years were Central America, TX/LA, and the Outer Banks of NC. In other words, these seasons were rather similar to 2019, excepting activity in the Caribbean, which 2019 lacked.

Say what? um how about NO. Steering currents can't be predicted a week or two out. I will use Dorian as a prime example plenty of ridging eroding right offshore the florida coastline. If it were that simple.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

Agreed. The origin and trajectory of the first named storm, however, can also offer clues, whether pre-season or not. Based on historical data since 1851, if a subtropical storm forms over or near the Bahamas in May and heads generally north-northeast or northeast, then the upcoming season tends to feature many storms that curve OTS east of the mainland U.S. Examples include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Virtually all storms in these years featured strong poleward trajectories—including the (few) storms that actually managed to strike the mainland U.S. These years, on average, featured an east-based, mainly +NAO during ASO, with a mean trough along part of the Eastern Seaboard, primarily near the Southeastern U.S. As mentioned previously, the main targets, if any, in these years were Central America, TX/LA, and the Outer Banks of NC. In other words, these seasons were rather similar to 2019, excepting activity in the Caribbean, which 2019 lacked.

In 2004 the first storm/major hurricane formed just north of The Bahamas in early-August and quickly turned NE out to sea affecting no one but the fish and look how that season turned out! You can’t judge a season by its first storm just like you can’t judge a book by its cover.

[Ubuntwo]

One thing we can say is that most seasons have a preferred track pattern. It what causes multiple storms to hit the same location over and over in a single season. 2004 was mainly Florida. 2005 was central GOM. Many season predominately recurve before hitting east coast. Watch June/July pattern for clues.

Agreed. The origin and trajectory of the first named storm, however, can also offer clues, whether pre-season or not. Based on historical data since 1851, if a subtropical storm forms over or near the Bahamas in May and heads generally north-northeast or northeast, then the upcoming season tends to feature many storms that curve OTS east of the mainland U.S. Examples include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Virtually all storms in these years featured strong poleward trajectories—including the (few) storms that actually managed to strike the mainland U.S. These years, on average, featured an east-based, mainly +NAO during ASO, with a mean trough along part of the Eastern Seaboard, primarily near the Southeastern U.S. As mentioned previously, the main targets, if any, in these years were Central America, TX/LA, and the Outer Banks of NC. In other words, these seasons were rather similar to 2019, excepting activity in the Caribbean, which 2019 lacked.

In 2004 the first storm/major hurricane formed just north of The Bahamas in early-August and quickly turned NE out to sea affecting no one but the fish and look how that season turned out! You can’t judge a season by its first storm just like you can’t judge a book by its cover.

Well it came 20 miles from landfall in the OBX, leaving storm surge flooding and erosion. Still, pre-season steering currents have little bearing on those later in the year.