Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[IcyTundra]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

A bold statement and with all due respect a bit of hype considering a storm hasn't even formed.

I was just showing the tweet that the poster was refering to.

[Hurricane2022]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

Sorry but I can't see the post because X is banned from my country (temporarily i guess) because of political conflicts between Elon and the Supreme Court of Brazil

[cycloneye]

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a
thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[IcyTundra]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

Sorry but I can't see the post because X is banned from my country (temporarily i guess) because of political conflicts between Elon and the Supreme Court of Brazil

Here is what thee tweet says.

With the MJO in phases 4/5 the next 10 days, despite models over the central and eastern gulf, like Beryl this could wind up in the correlation area which is the upper Texas gulf coast day 10-15

[SFLcane]

Gefs continues to be north of the operational with some quick recurves east of the Bahamas with most near FL.

[Stormlover70]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

A bold statement and with all due respect a bit of hype considering a storm hasn't even formed.

I was just showing the tweet that the poster was refering to.

oh. I know I was referring to him not you.

[CourierPR]

Gefs continues to be north of the operational with some quick recurves east of the Bahamas with most near FL.

WPLG Miami Hurricane Specialist Michael Lowry alluded to this scenario this evening.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1829673215490150689

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/99wxnvy/gfs-mslp-wind-eus-53.png [/url]
Probably made landfall below 940mb.

Well, here is your answer to that question, good lord.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Soofg.png

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Models this time are year are always binary. Either they develop and the OHC bombs them into monsters or they don’t develop at all.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… This is what I call not in line with the operational run…

[Stratton23]

I will say, a recurve east of florida is starting to look more unlikely now, probably will be a CA or Gulf threat, the rudge over the atlantic is trending stronger

[Woofde]

18z GEFS… This is what I call not in line with the operational run…

After the Lesser Antilles the spread is from Central America all the way to Bermuda. That is about as much variance as you can get lol.

[SFLcane]

It’s best to stick to ensembles when you don’t have genesis yet. My take at least

[cycloneye]

It’s best to stick to ensembles when you don’t have genesis yet. My take at least

I think Adrian, NHC folks do that and from them is how they go to the percents.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

18z ECAI is back with Yucatan track. A bit further south of where it was previously favoring.
Continues through to S. BOC.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS is nasty

[wzrgirl1]

18Z GFS is nasty

Gulp! Thank God it is still several days out.

[TomballEd]

After 240 hours, the op GFS just becomes the best initialized ensemble It drops to ensemble resolution then. The next Cat 4 to hit Texas is an interesting map, but steering to me suggests (if it doesn't change), the E Gulf has a higher risk. Lets see if the 0Z GFS past the resolution truncation shows a different landfall. Those of you with PPV weather should be posting them already.

S2K glitchy, too many people locked in on a distant off hour GFS solution.