Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks closer to 75 knots right now...Looks like he is trying to give us the number one spot in ACE!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the Gfdl this thing is going no where!

[superfly]

Eyewall open to SE, looks like Epsilon is finally caving in to shear and cold waters.

[Coredesat]

Keep in mind, that was the case for the last couple days and it bounced right back. Although it looks a little worse this time than it did the previous few times the eyewall opened up.

[superfly]

Keep in mind, that was the case for the last couple days and it bounced right back. Although it looks a little worse this time than it did the previous few times the eyewall opened up.

Well the past few times it happened, only the inner part of the eyewall was open (there was still a ring of convection further away from the eye). This time, the entire SE side is open.

[HurryKane]

They are likely making great over time. Maybe 2x normal time so they might not be that mad.

Eh hee hee hee, you've never worked for the gubmint, have you.

Anyway, I thorougly enjoyed Avila's latest discussion:

955
WTNT44 KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS
CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[Cookiely]

They are likely making great over time. Maybe 2x normal time so they might not be that mad.

Eh hee hee hee, you've never worked for the gubmint, have you.

Anyway, I thorougly enjoyed Avila's latest discussion:

955
WTNT44 KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS
CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

You think Avila is getting a little testy? I have nothing more to say to you Epsilon. I have had it! You are being a nuisance and the holidays are upon us and I have better things to do.

[WindRunner]

That "hole" has spun around and is almost filled in with the plentiful convection on the NW side. So much for that chance.

[cycloneye]

Refuses to go away.

[HURAKAN]

Unbelievable, 8 days already with EPSY!

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 061220
A. HURRICANE EPSILON (TWENTY-NINE)
B. 06/1131Z (127)
C. 32.4N/9
D. 33.8W/4
E. FOUR/MET7
F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS -06/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

09A/ PBO 42NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY 23NM OW RNG
YIELDS DT OF 4.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ. FT BASED ON DT.
PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.6 (CRVD BND)

ORTEGA


Air Force T number 4.0.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051206 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051206 1200 051207 0000 051207 1200 051208 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMM 32.3N 33.7W 30.7N 34.6W 29.4N 36.7W 27.7N 38.3W
A98E 32.3N 33.7W 30.8N 34.1W 29.6N 34.2W 26.9N 36.1W
LBAR 32.3N 33.7W 31.1N 33.5W 30.0N 33.8W 28.8N 35.2W
SHIP 65KTS 59KTS 50KTS 40KTS
DSHP 65KTS 59KTS 50KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051208 1200 051209 1200 051210 1200 051211 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMM 25.1N 39.5W 18.9N 42.5W 14.5N 46.8W 12.8N 54.2W
A98E 24.6N 35.8W 21.6N 33.6W 19.6N 29.6W 17.9N 24.7W
LBAR 26.7N 36.1W 22.9N 33.8W 22.5N 26.9W 25.1N 20.9W
SHIP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 33.7W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 33.8W DIRM12 = 125DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 130NM


Still going,and going,and going,and going......................

[cjrciadt]

[WindRunner]

Well, I'll be more than amazed if if manages to survive the NHC path . . . through 70kts shear . . . It's going to finally start to die.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well, I'll be more than amazed if if manages to survive the NHC path . . . through 70kts shear . . . It's going to finally start to die.

I agree...I thought it would get too 100 MPH..But now the end is near...Its about to get ripped a new one..

[HURAKAN]

WHEN EPSILON REACHED 85 MPH, IT BECAME THE 2ND STRONGEST HURRICANE IN DECEMBER!

THE STRONGEST:

[superfly]

WHEN EPSILON REACHED 85 MPH, IT BECAME THE 2ND STRONGEST HURRICANE IN DECEMBER!

THE STRONGEST:

It strengthened while crossing Florida? I somehow find that very hard to believe.

[HURAKAN]

WHEN EPSILON REACHED 85 MPH, IT BECAME THE 2ND STRONGEST HURRICANE IN DECEMBER!

THE STRONGEST:

It strengthened while crossing Florida? I somehow find that very hard to believe.

ME TOO, BUT THAT'S WHAT RECORDS SHOW!

[HURAKAN]

NOT MUCH COMPANY!

[mtm4319]

WHEN EPSILON REACHED 85 MPH, IT BECAME THE 2ND STRONGEST HURRICANE IN DECEMBER!

THE STRONGEST:

It strengthened while crossing Florida? I somehow find that very hard to believe.

When a storm is upgraded from a TS to Cat 1, Weather Underground shows the storm as being Cat 1 from the moment after the final TS advisory. Intuitively, the yellow (Cat 1) line should not begin until the point that it is upgraded.

Here is the Unisys tracking map for that storm:



The storm moved quickly across Florida, and only spent one "advisory" over land (#9). By advisory #10, it was back over water (albeit barely) and had strengthened back into a hurricane. But with Weather Underground's way of showing a storm track, it looks as if it strengthened over Florida when it actually didn't.